Good morning and Happy Friday. One big story to watch this weekend is what happens Syria.

Syrian government forces quickly retreated from the city of Hama on Thursday, allowing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led opposition to quickly take the city. Alawites were seen fleeing the city in advance of the rebels but many others seemed to welcome the rebels. As of Friday morning ET, the opposition forces are now close to the nearby city of Homs, which is the last city between their north base and the capital, Damascus. [BBC Live Tracker]

Clarification - Despite initial reports of sabotage, Finnish authorities said that damage to fiber optic cables earlier this week was accidental, not sabotage. [SOURCE - AP]

Need Help Crisis Planning?

It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.

The problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it's hard to know where to start.

So keep things simple: start with the things that might affect your organization specifically because you won't tackle climate change by yourself.

And if you aren't sure what those threats might be, here's something to help.

I just rebuilt the scenario planner in CrisisDojo and put it outside of the paywall so you can use it to generate likely scenarios for your organization. Plus, it can help outline basic contingency plans and actions to put into place.

So ignore the noise: focus on your organization.

Just go to app.crisisdojo.ai to try it out.

No login or credit card required.

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia

Regional News Summary

Conflict and humanitarian crises continue to plague various regions in Africa, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) at the forefront. Fighting has resumed in eastern DRC despite a ceasefire between the army and rebels, raising concerns about the region's stability [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press]. This escalation follows a deadly attack by extremist rebels linked to ISIS, which resulted in the deaths of at least nine people and the kidnapping of three others [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

In addition to the violence, a mysterious illness has claimed dozens of lives in the region, further complicating the humanitarian situation [SOURCE - RT]. Efforts to address these crises have been hampered by a recent East African summit that failed to gain momentum for peace, particularly after its leader skipped critical talks [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

Meanwhile, Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has called for unity among African nations, emphasizing cooperation for regional stability and economic growth. [SOURCE - Azer News].

In South Africa, the economy is facing significant challenges, with an unexpected contraction of 0.3% in the third quarter attributed to decreased consumer spending and reduced investment [SOURCE - RTT News]. The government is striving to boost tourism, targeting 1.5 million Indian tourists by 2030 [SOURCE - Livemint]. Additionally, South Africa has deepened its science and technology partnership with the European Union, aiming to foster innovation and strengthen ties with other African nations [SOURCE - Science Business].

In Nigeria, the government is taking steps to combat corruption, with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission seizing hundreds of homes in a major anti-graft case [SOURCE - CBC News]. However, the country is also facing humanitarian challenges, as a recent boat capsizing in a river resulted in at least 27 deaths and over 100 people missing [SOURCE - Times of India].

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is worsening, with aid workers struggling to provide assistance as over half a million people have fled to neighboring countries [SOURCE - The Journal.ie]. Reports from El Geneina reveal horrific conditions faced by civilians, with access to basic necessities severely limited [SOURCE - BBC News].

In the Central African Republic, the ongoing conflict has seen the involvement of Russian mercenaries, notably the Wagner Group, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis as both government forces and rebels commit abuses [SOURCE - ReliefWeb].

Long Reads

Here are some longer pieces I’m going to be catching up on this weekend.

• I am behind on Ethan Mollick’s writing on AI at work. [Mollick’s One Useful Thing blog] This piece on ‘good enough’ promoting is at the top of my list in relation to some work I am doing on varying prompt structures depending on the model you are using. (Exciting stuff, right?)

• This Bloomberg video piece covers how the ‘dark fleets’ that smuggle embargoed oil operate [Bloomberg]

• Another blog I need to catch up on is Wag The Dog by my friend Philippe Borremans. He does some of the best thinking and writing on crisis communications and crisis response and is worth reading for the clarity and originality of his thinking in this space. Plus, he’s highly practical, so there’s always a lot of practical value in his newsletter. [Wag the Dog]

(The interview with Argentinian President Milei I recommended last week was wild but still worth a listen.)

Have a great weekend and I will see you again on Monday

Carpe tomorrow!