- Decis SITREPS
- Posts
- Decis SITREP: Africa Focus
Decis SITREP: Africa Focus
A Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads
Good morning and Happy Friday.
This time last week, I wrote, “Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight”.
How wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism.
I wanted to flag not only my own mistake but also this positive news: there is a bias towards negativity in the news — ‘if it bleeds, it leads’ — and nihilism in geopolitics (often under the guise of realism), both of which are self-reinforcing and can become self fulfilling. So while a lot of the risk we cover is negative, it’s important to highlight opportunities where they arise and I think there is a lot to be hopeful for in Syria.
Some quick headlines.
The Arkan Army, an insurgent group in Western Myanmar, has seized the entire border between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Notably, this group is separate from the Rohingya separatists, who also oppose the country’s military rulers. [SOURCE - BBC]
As I write this: “French President Emmanuel Macron named centrist politician François Bayrou as the country's new prime minister” [SOURCE - France24]
Need Help Crisis Planning?
It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.
The problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it's hard to know where to start.
So keep things simple: start with the things that might affect your organization specifically because you won't tackle climate change by yourself.
And if you aren't sure what those threats might be, here's something to help.
I just rebuilt the scenario planner in CrisisDojo and put it outside of the paywall so you can use it to generate likely scenarios for your organization. Plus, it can help outline basic contingency plans and actions to put into place.
So ignore the noise: focus on your organization.
Just go to app.crisisdojo.ai to try it out.
No login or credit card required.
Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary
More Unstable
🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
More Stable
No countries were more stable over this period
Unchanged
🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia
Africa News Summary
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a mysterious illness known as "Disease X" has emerged, claiming the lives of at least 31 individuals, many of whom are children. The World Health Organization has dispatched a health team to investigate the outbreak and assist in response efforts, but the exact cause remains unknown, raising urgent global health concerns as similar diseases, such as the Marburg virus, have also been reported in nearby Rwanda [SOURCE - NDTV].
Simultaneously, the DRC is grappling with humanitarian issues, as a rights group has called for an investigation into alleged abuses by a former governor and army officers, highlighting the ongoing struggle for human rights in the region [SOURCE - ABC News]. Additionally, economic challenges persist, with illegal mining and abalone poaching exacerbating the country's resource management issues [SOURCE - BizNews].
In Ghana, the political landscape has shifted dramatically following the recent presidential elections. John Mahama, the opposition candidate, has emerged victorious amidst the worst economic crisis the nation has faced in a generation, characterized by high inflation and currency depreciation [SOURCE - France 24]. This change in leadership raises hopes for economic revival, but the aftermath has been marred by post-election chaos, with reports of arrests among Mahama's supporters [SOURCE - BBC].
Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the festive season has been overshadowed by security concerns, with reports of violence and kidnappings raising alarms among residents [SOURCE - Morning Star News]. Despite these challenges, Nigeria has also seen positive economic developments, with Shell awarding substantial contracts to local firms, indicating potential growth opportunities [SOURCE - Rigzone].
In the Central African Republic, the humanitarian crisis continues to deepen as government forces, supported by foreign allies, engage in military operations against rebel groups. This has led to allegations of human rights abuses and a worsening humanitarian situation, with thousands displaced and aid efforts hampered [SOURCE - Al Jazeera].
Across the continent, economic challenges persist, with countries like Kenya facing reduced growth estimates due to fiscal difficulties [SOURCE - Reuters]. In South Africa, while there are signs of economic recovery, issues such as unemployment and corruption remain pressing concerns [SOURCE - The Citizen].
Turkey brokered a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, defusing tensions over Ethiopia's plan to open a port in the independent Somaliland region. The deal commits both parties to talks to establish improved diplomatic and commercial ties, easing decades-long tensions between the two East African neighbors. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]
Long Reads
Here are some longer pieces I’m going to be catching up on this weekend.
There’s a long piece of analysis on Syria’s future from the Carnegie Institute for Peace.
This Foreign Policy article looks at Turkey’s President Erdogan’s role as a statesman in the Middle East.
Wired has an interesting piece on white supremacy and the role of online forums and clubs.
And seeing as I am feeling a little behind the curve on quantum computing, the Google Quantum blog on the release of their ‘Willow’ chip.
Have a great weekend and I will see you again on Monday
Carpe tomorrow!