Good morning and Happy Friday.

Two headlines of note.

• The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. The ICC warrants accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Deif is also accused of crimes against humanity in connection with his role in the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel. Deif is reported to have been killed in July but the ICC maintains that it cannot verify that. Similar warrants against Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar were dropped after their deaths. [SOURCE - Washington Post]

• Over 40 people were killed in an attack on civilian vehicles in northwest Pakistan, close to the Afghan border. Sectarian violence has taken place in the same region recently, but the exact motive for the attack is unclear. This does not appear to be linked to the recent attacks carried out by separatists from Balochistan. [SOURCE - BBC]

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Nov 22, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia

News Summary

In the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the persistent threat posed by M23 rebels continues to destabilize the region, drawing international concern. The rebels remain heavily armed and prepared for combat, exacerbating the already precarious security situation in the area [SOURCE - Gateway Pundit].

Meanwhile, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) convened a summit in Harare to address regional security issues, but the limited attendance highlighted a troubling lack of commitment from member states to resolve ongoing conflicts [SOURCE - Zimbabwe Mail]. This lack of engagement raises questions about the effectiveness of regional organizations in fostering stability.

In Uganda, the government is pursuing an ambitious plan to construct the world's longest heated oil pipeline by 2027, aiming to bolster energy security. However, the realization of this project remains uncertain, reflecting the broader challenges facing the region's energy sector [SOURCE - Financial Times].

As the DRC grapples with internal strife, the UK has pledged £113 million in aid to Sudan, where ongoing conflict has led to a severe humanitarian crisis. This funding aims to alleviate the suffering of millions facing famine and displacement [SOURCE - Sky News]. However, frustrations within the United Nations regarding Russia's obstruction of peace efforts in Sudan have intensified, complicating the international response to the crisis [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post].

In West Africa, Nigeria's oil production has reached a significant milestone of 1.8 million barrels per day, yet the country continues to struggle with economic challenges, being labeled an "economic basket case" despite its wealth in natural resources [SOURCE - Rigzone]. This paradox highlights the urgent need for sustainable economic development strategies.

In Southern Africa, South Africa's financial outlook has improved, with S&P revising its economic growth forecast to positive due to better reforms [SOURCE - Investing.com]. However, the country faces pressing issues, including illegal mining and the safety of miners, with the government refusing to assist thousands trapped underground [SOURCE - Jurist].

In East Africa, Kenya is grappling with economic instability exacerbated by external shocks, including a rising US dollar. The tragic killing of four women runners has raised safety concerns within the athletics community, further complicating the nation's image [SOURCE - NY Times].

The humanitarian situation in Somalia remains dire, with ongoing conflict against Al-Shabaab leading to significant displacement and a deepening humanitarian crisis [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]. The Somali government is struggling to maintain control while facing high inflation, prompting austerity measures to stabilize the economy [SOURCE - Business Daily Africa].

Final Factoid

Some longer weekend reads today.

• Sen. Mark Warner has described the Chinese hack of the US telecoms network as the “worst telecom hack in our nation’s history — by far”. Meanwhile, the systems remain compromised. From The Washington Post

• Ten Trends for 2025 from the Economist’s ‘World in 2025’ editor.

• Bloomberg Businessweek has a guide to holiday travel.

Have a great weekend and I will see you again on Monday

Carpe tomorrow!