Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Good morning.

Two quick headlines worth noting.

An undersea cable between Germany and Finland was severed on Monday. The German Defence Minister noted that "nobody believes that these cables were cut accidentally". [SOURCE - BBC] Note - Russia is the likely culprit here, and this fits with Moscow’s larger ‘hybrid war’ strategy they are pursuing across Europe. See the Washington Post for more.

Ukraine is reported to have used the long-range ATACMS missiles to hit targets in Russia for the first time since the US approved their use over the weekend. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Nov 19, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil is grappling with economic instability as state-owned companies report their highest deficit in over two decades, raising alarms about the government's financial health and investor confidence. This situation is compounded by the exclusion of the OECD from the upcoming G20 summit, which has sparked concerns regarding Brazil's commitment to global economic cooperation and its increasing isolationism. Meanwhile, BTG Pactual, a leading Brazilian bank, reported a 15% increase in quarterly adjusted net income, providing a glimmer of hope for the financial sector amidst broader economic challenges [SOURCE - RIO TIMES ONLINE].

Trade tensions are also affecting Brazil, as the ongoing trade war between the United States and China has led to a decline in exports and rising trade deficits for several Latin American countries, including Brazil [SOURCE - THE HINDU].

In Mexico, the economy is showing resilience, particularly in the auto sector, which has achieved a significant trade surplus with the U.S. However, this success is threatened by potential tariffs from the Trump administration, which could ignite a trade war. To mitigate these risks, Canada has proposed a trade deal that excludes Mexico, raising concerns about the implications for the Mexican economy [SOURCE - Mexico News Daily]. Despite these challenges, Mexico has secured $64.7 billion in investment promises, indicating strong foreign interest in its market [SOURCE - RIO TIMES].

Argentina is witnessing signs of economic recovery, bolstered by $8.8 billion in loans aimed at enhancing competitiveness without compromising sovereignty. President Javier Milei's austerity measures have led to a significant drop in inflation, although concerns remain about the social impact of these policies [SOURCE - Gateway Hispanic]. Additionally, Argentina's risk index has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, reflecting improved investor sentiment [SOURCE - RIO TIMES].

In Venezuela, the situation remains dire as the government faces backlash over the death of opposition activist Jorge Gotera in custody, igniting outrage and highlighting the ongoing repression under President Nicolás Maduro. The country continues to grapple with high crime rates and economic instability, exacerbated by a recent OPEC+ decision to cut oil production, which threatens to deepen the economic crisis [SOURCE - IB Times].

Haiti is experiencing a surge in gang violence, leading to the closure of its main airport and a ban on U.S. flights to the island. The escalating violence has forced thousands to flee their homes, raising significant safety concerns and prompting international scrutiny [SOURCE - BBC].

Final Factoid

A recent Economist article on energy transition shows how the IEAs predictions of renewable energy capacity have fallen '“wildly short” at every stage. Good news for cutting carbon emissions, bad news for the IEA’s predictions team.

Carpe tomorrow!