Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Good morning.

Three headlines for you.

• Citing the flow of drugs and migrants across the US border, President-elect Trump threatened additional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China. These appear to be in addition to the blanket 10% tariffs Trump plans to impose on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

• In Pakistan, protestors demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have reached the central D Chowk square in Islamabad. The situation is tense and fluid, and what happens next is uncertain but Khan has asked his supporters to occupy the center of Islamabad until their demands are met. The BBC has live coverage here.

• The Israeli cabinet is due to vote on a ceasefire proposal to end its war in Lebanon today. The motion is expected to pass but Beirut continues to come under heavy Israeli bombardment while the deliberations continue. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Nov 26, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Americas News Summary

The recent G20 summit in Brazil has spotlighted the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, prompting leaders to emphasize the need for international cooperation in addressing global challenges. This concern aligns with broader discussions on regional alliances and economic ties, particularly as Brazil strengthens its relations with Vietnam and Argentina, clinching a significant gas deal from Argentina's Vaca Muerta reserve to bolster its energy production capabilities [SOURCE - Mercopress].

As Brazil increasingly relies on oil exports, the G20 summit also highlighted trade and investment potential, with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim identifying a projected RM6.8 billion in export opportunities to Brazil over the next five years [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. This growing economic interdependence is further underscored by the strengthening ties between China and Brazil, as both nations seek to enhance cooperation under the G20 framework [SOURCE - ECNS].

In Mexico, the government is navigating complex economic and geopolitical landscapes. President Xi Jinping's recent visit underscored the strengthening ties between China and Mexico, aimed at mutual economic growth [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. However, Mexico's strategy to balance its relationships with both China and the U.S. raises concerns about potential repercussions on its northern neighbor's trade ties [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

Domestically, the Bank of Mexico is considering further interest rate cuts to combat inflation, while the U.S. has offered funding to address doctor shortages in New Mexico [SOURCE - KOAT]. Amid rising social unrest and immigration policy debates, President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed readiness to manage U.S. proposals for increased deportations [SOURCE - The Yucatan Times].

In the United States, political developments are marked by President Trump's tightening stance on immigration and a series of new appointments aimed at strengthening diplomatic relations [SOURCE - OANN].

You can track President-elect Trump’s cabinet picks in Politico here and his ‘Day One’ plans in Bloomberg here.

Argentina's economic landscape is also shifting, with President Javier Milei's austerity measures leading to unexpected downturns despite securing loans from international financial institutions [SOURCE - The Rio Times]. However, a recent gas deal with Brazil may provide a much-needed boost to its industrial sector [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

In Venezuela, the U.S. has recognized opposition leader Leonel Gonzalez Urrutia as president-elect following a disputed election, a move that could reshape the political landscape in the region [SOURCE - IB Times]. Meanwhile, the country has resumed local debt sales after a five-year hiatus, signaling a potential re-engagement with international investors [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

As regional tensions rise, particularly in Nicaragua amid China's expanding influence, the need for stable governance and international cooperation becomes increasingly critical. The ongoing challenges in Haiti, characterized by escalating violence and humanitarian crises, further underscore the urgency for effective diplomatic engagement and support from the international community [SOURCE - BBC News].

Yamandú Orsi won Urgugay’s presidential election on Sunday. Although described as left-leaning, Orsi struck a business-friendly tone during campaigning and is expected to maintain Uruguay’s moderate stance.   [SOURCE - BBC]

Final Factoid

Good news: the majority of NATO members are meeting their 2% of GDP commitment.

Bad news: 2% isn't enough anymore.

Read more in The Economist

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Carpe tomorrow!