Good morning. Three quick headlines

🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, proroguing (recessing) Canada’s parliament until March 24th while the Liberal party find a new leader. Canada’s conservatives will want to force a general election, and this leaves Trudeau — who will stay on until a replacement is found — as a lame duck in any negotiations with the incoming Trump administration. [More - CBC]

🇨🇩 M23 rebels have taken control of Masisi, a strategic town in the Eastern Goma district of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Goma region is rich in minerals and also increases M23’s terrotorial hold in eastern DRC. [More - Al Jazeera]

🗻 An earthquake hit a remote area of Tibet close to Mount Everest. Initial reports are that almost 100 were killed and 130 injured. [More - BBC]

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Key Metrics

WTI is $72.44 (Down)

Low |------ < -------------| High

Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

Low |-- < -----------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 06 2025 21:16 UTC

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil's economic landscape is currently marked by significant developments and challenges. The government has secured a $1.8 billion railway concessions deal with Vale, a major mining company, which is expected to enhance infrastructure development in the country [SOURCE - Seeking Alpha]. However, Brazil's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward from 3.5% to 2%, reflecting ongoing economic difficulties [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

In the commodities market, Brazil's cocoa production continues to thrive, leading the global commodities rally for the second consecutive year, while the steel industry faces challenges due to weak demand from China [SOURCE - Investing.com]. The Brazilian government is also looking to sell its stake in a major airline to raise revenue amid fiscal concerns [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

As Brazil chairs the BRICS group, it is focusing on strengthening relations with member countries to promote economic cooperation [SOURCE - TASS]. However, tensions with Western allies are rising, particularly due to Brazil's close ties with Russia amid the ongoing geopolitical crisis [SOURCE - Azernews].

In Mexico, the economy is facing a tumultuous period, exacerbated by recent tariffs imposed by the US following Donald Trump's visit to Mexico City. These tariffs have prompted Mexico to consider retaliatory measures, including increased tariffs on apparel imports from the US [SOURCE - Manila Times]. The security situation remains precarious, highlighted by a recent attack on an American family in Durango, raising concerns about safety for foreign travelers [SOURCE - El Pais].

Argentina's stock market has shown remarkable resilience, ending 2024 with an impressive 84% gain, attributed to newly freed markets under the current administration [SOURCE - Dawn]. However, challenges persist, including cuts to staff and routes by the state airline in anticipation of a possible sale [SOURCE - Livemint].

In Venezuela, the government claims a 9% economic growth in 2024, despite widespread skepticism and unrest [SOURCE - The Rio Times]. However, the country faces significant challenges, including a recent ruling imposing a $10 million fine on TikTok over allegedly harmful content [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

In the broader context of the Americas, the United States is grappling with trade tensions and security concerns. The Biden administration's recent tariffs on Mexican oil exports and the blocking of a Japanese company's takeover of US Steel reflect ongoing protectionist measures [SOURCE - Investing.com]. Additionally, China is imposing sanctions on US defense firms, further complicating international relations [SOURCE - Economic Times].

Finally, I saw this fantastic paper from Elm Wealth on the subject of forecasting and how, despite having the next day’s news, even financially literate investors failed to meaningfully benefit and1/3 of the investors went bust. My thoughts on how this relates to using forecasts and analysis more generally are on Linkedin here.

Carpe tomorrow!