Decis SITREP: Americas Roundup

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Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Nov 11, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Regional Stability Ratings: Americas

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

None

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary: Americas

This summary is generated by AI using news headlines

In the USA, former President Trump won the US Presidential election and Republicans also regained control of the Senate. Results from the House are incomplete but Republicans appear to have a good chance of retaining control. (Election updates via Axios). 

Read more on Trump’s ‘day one’ plans in Bloomberg

In Haiti, the transition council dismissed President Garry Conille and replaced him with businessman Alix Didier Fils-Aimé. [SOURCE - The AP]

Brazil's economic landscape is currently fraught with challenges as President Lula faces mounting pressure to navigate fiscal difficulties exacerbated by global tensions. The recent US election, which saw Donald Trump declare victory, has raised concerns about potential trade wars that could destabilize the Brazilian market. Investors are closely monitoring the government's fiscal measures, while inflation, although claimed by the Brazilian Central Bank to be under control, remains a significant concern for many analysts. In response to these uncertainties, Brazilian firms are promoting their US-based manufacturing capabilities to mitigate reliance on China and prepare for possible tariffs that could affect over 45% of American imports from Brazil [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].

In a bid to bolster investor confidence, Brazil has also made strides in environmental commitments. Ahead of the COP29 summit, President Lula announced new pledges to combat deforestation, highlighting a 31% decrease in Amazon deforestation over the past year. This initiative reflects Brazil's dedication to addressing climate change and restoring damaged ecosystems [SOURCE - Live Mint].

Meanwhile, Brazil's aviation sector is witnessing significant growth, with LATAM Airlines investing $100 million in a new Dreamliner service center. The government is also set to provide aid to domestic airlines, further enhancing the industry's prospects [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].

In Mexico, the economy is bracing for potential repercussions from Trump's election, particularly concerning tariffs aimed at curbing fentanyl trafficking. This uncertainty has led to a decline in Mexican stocks, raising questions about the future of trade relations with the US. However, the automotive sector received a boost with Toyota's announcement of a $1.4 billion investment in its Mexican factories, indicating resilience amidst the challenges [SOURCE - Live Mint].

The US election's implications extend beyond trade, as concerns about immigration policies under a potential Trump administration loom large. The threat of deportations could impact migrant caravans, further complicating the socio-economic landscape in Mexico [SOURCE - The Yucatan Times].

In Argentina, the mood is markedly more optimistic following Trump's victory, with markets surging and the country's risk rating dropping below 900 points. The mining sector is expected to benefit from this political shift, as companies like Mcewen Mining report record financial performance [SOURCE - Rio Times].

As the international community grapples with rising global tensions, Brazil is strengthening ties with key players like India and China, seeking to enhance its diplomatic influence. The upcoming G20 summit will see Brazil, along with China and other nations, request bilateral meetings with prominent leaders, including Joe Biden [SOURCE - The Yucatan Times].

In summary, the Americas are navigating a complex web of economic challenges and opportunities. Brazil's fiscal struggles and environmental commitments, Mexico's precarious trade relations, and Argentina's optimistic market response to US political shifts highlight the diverse landscape of the region. As these nations adapt to the evolving global context, their paths forward will be closely watched by decision-makers and investors alike.

Ratings and news summaries last updated 23:59 UTC Nov 10

Final Factoid

There’s a lot of discussion about what tariffs on goods imported into the US might do to prices. China is the country mentioned most, and these imports would be taxed at the highest rate, but the incoming administration’s tariff plans also mention levying tariffs on all imports.

Here’s the FT’s assessment of what that would do to the costs of some goods and services.

Chart from the Financial Times (link)

As always, review your supply chains.

Carpe tomorrow!