Good morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.

Despite the calm in the majority of Syria following the HTS takeover, several majority Alawite towns in Syria remain pro-Assad strongholds. An ambush on Tuesday left 14 HTS-affiliated police dead and 10 wounded as the police tried to arrest a former regime figure. Currently, this doesn’t seem to indicate the beginnings of a counter-HTS insurgency, but it is a reminder that Syria remains somewhat fractured and that many of the former-regime figures are implicated in Assad’s crimes and will do whatever they can to avoid capture. [SOURCE - BBC]

There are rumors that Russia might be planning a false flag operation in Transnistria as an excuse to take control and ‘defend’ the breakaway region of Moldova. There’s a good explainer in Al Jazeera here.

Key Metrics

WTI is $71.03 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 26 2024 08:05 UTC

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, three interior construction firms have been penalized a total of S$10 million for bid-rigging, a move that underscores the government's commitment to maintaining fair practices in the construction industry [SOURCE - Channel News Asia]. Despite this enforcement action, Singapore's economy remains stable, with core inflation dipping to 1.9% in November, prompting discussions among analysts about its implications for monetary policy [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily].

Meanwhile, the Bank of Singapore Limited has faced challenges from fraudulent websites impersonating the bank, highlighting the need for vigilance in the financial sector [SOURCE - Government Information Office Hong Kong]. In a related development, Singapore Post's CEO and top executives were dismissed following a whistleblower report, marking a significant shift in corporate governance [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In the broader economic context, Singapore-based banks OCBC and UOB have announced one-off bonuses for junior employees to assist with rising living costs, reflecting a sector-wide trend to support staff amid economic pressures [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

Turning to China, the nation is actively enhancing its regional influence through diplomatic engagements and military exercises. Following talks between China's Foreign Minister and India's National Security Adviser, both countries expressed a consensus on improving relations, a move aimed at counterbalancing rising tensions [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior]. Concurrently, China and Pakistan conducted joint anti-terrorism exercises, further solidifying their defense cooperation [SOURCE - Azernews].

In Taiwan, tensions are escalating as lawmakers engage in physical confrontations over proposed bills perceived as threats to democracy. This unrest coincides with increased Chinese military activity around the island, raising concerns about regional stability [SOURCE - Japan Today].

The United States continues to bolster its support for Taiwan, with President Biden approving a substantial military aid package amidst growing fears of a Chinese invasion [SOURCE - Economic Times]. This support is met with strong opposition from China, which has condemned U.S. actions as provocative [SOURCE - Sinodaily].

In the economic realm, Japan is experiencing a recovery, albeit with caution as corporate service inflation accelerates. The government has announced a record budget for FY 2025, indicating a commitment to economic growth despite global uncertainties [SOURCE - Japan Times].

As regional dynamics evolve, the implications of these developments are profound. The interplay of economic policies, military posturing, and diplomatic relations will shape the future of Asia, necessitating close attention from decision-makers in the region and beyond.

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇹🇴 Tonga, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇵🇼 Palau, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu

Regional News Summary

Australia is actively enhancing its diplomatic and security presence in the Pacific, recently announcing a $118 million deal to bolster policing in the Solomon Islands. This initiative is part of Australia's broader strategy, termed 'Pacific Power Play,' aimed at countering increasing Chinese influence in the region and securing the allegiance of smaller nations. The deal underscores Australia's commitment to regional stability amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics [SOURCE - VOA News].

In the realm of global partnerships, the United States' renewed engagement under the Trump administration has prompted Australia to delay its new climate targets, reflecting the complex interplay of economic and security considerations between the two nations [SOURCE - Financial Post]. Additionally, Australia has approved the extradition of a former US Marine accused of training Chinese military pilots, further complicating its international relations [SOURCE - The Hindu].

On the environmental front, Australia is making strides in innovation with NeoSmelt's initiative to convert Pilbara iron ore into green steel, a project supported by major mining companies like Rio Tinto and BHP. This endeavor aims to significantly reduce emissions and position Australia as a leader in sustainable practices [SOURCE - ABC News].

In Vanuatu, the aftermath of a devastating earthquake has prompted the resumption of commercial flights, facilitating recovery efforts in a nation grappling with the effects of natural disasters. The United Nations Children's Fund has launched an urgent appeal to assist 40,000 children affected by the recent quakes, highlighting the ongoing humanitarian needs [SOURCE - NDTV].

Meanwhile, New Zealand is witnessing a mix of initiatives aimed at addressing pressing issues. Film director James Cameron's project, 'Vision,' seeks to revitalize Wellington, while concerns about human rights persist, particularly regarding a new bill aimed at increasing penalties for human slavery. World Vision New Zealand has welcomed the bill but emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive approach to tackle the issue effectively [SOURCE - Scoop News].

Fiji's Prime Minister has reaffirmed the nation's commitment to maintaining strong ties with China, amidst rising tensions in the Pacific. The government has made notable progress in improving human rights conditions for the indigenous iTaukei people, while also advocating for climate action on behalf of vulnerable island nations [SOURCE - FIJI VILLAGE].

As the region grapples with the impacts of climate change, the Marshall Islands continue to seek international support to adapt to rising sea levels and diversify their economy, which remains heavily reliant on fishing and foreign aid. The government has launched initiatives to attract foreign investment and develop a financial services sector, aiming for greater economic resilience [SOURCE - World Bank].

Carpe tomorrow!