Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Bulgaria and Romania Join Schengen and Turkish Diplomacy in East Africa

Good morning. Two quick headlines on positive diplomatic developments.

Bulgaria and Romania were accepted into the EUโ€™s Schengen visa scheme, which allows visa-free travel around the European Union for residents or visa holders of countries that are members of the scheme. [SOURCE - BBC]

Turkey brokered a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, defusing tensions over Ethiopia's plan to open a port in the independent Somaliland region. The deal commits both parties to talks to establish improved diplomatic and commercial ties, easing decades-long tensions between the two East African neighbors. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]

Note - This is good example of Erdoganโ€™s statesmanship and a reminder of Turkeyโ€™s role in regional events, which is often underreported in Western media.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Crude Futures (WTI)

$70.24

๐Ÿ’ต USD:EUR

$1.053

โ‚ฟ Bitcoin

$100,369

As at Dec 12, 06:30ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ซ Afghanistan, ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia, ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ Bahrain, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡น Bhutan, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ East Timor, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran, ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ Kuwait, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Kyrgyzstan, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ต North Korea, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฏ Tajikistan, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ Turkmenistan, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia, ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ Oman, ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore, ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab Emirates, ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam

Asia News Summary

Singapore is making strides in sustainability, having signed a Memorandum of Understanding with JBM Group to promote energy transition and reduce carbon emissions [SOURCE - The Hindu]. The city-state's real estate market is also witnessing significant changes, with billionaire Gordon Tang agreeing to acquire Suntec REIT for $2.5 billion, reflecting the evolving landscape of property investments [SOURCE - Forbes].

In the South China Sea, tensions have escalated between China and the Philippines, with the latter filing a diplomatic protest following clashes at disputed shoals. This incident has reignited calls for international intervention to address the ongoing territorial disputes [SOURCE - Diplomat.com] [SOURCE - AsiaOne].

The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the U.S.-China relations, as the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Chinese individuals and companies linked to military activities in Taiwan. In retaliation, China has targeted U.S. firms, heightening the risk of broader conflict [SOURCE - Pakistan Today]. Meanwhile, China's military operations in the East China Sea and its recent maritime maneuvers have raised alarms in Japan, prompting Tokyo to bolster its defenses [SOURCE - Japan Today].

In India, the economy is witnessing robust growth, with foreign direct investments surpassing $1 trillion. Major companies like OnePlus and RingCentral are planning significant investments and expansions in the country, indicating a positive outlook for job creation and economic development [SOURCE - LIVE MINT] [SOURCE - DAILY EXCELSIOR] [SOURCE - THE HINDU].

However, the region is not without its challenges. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan remains a pressing concern, with the Taliban's recent ban on female medical education threatening the healthcare system. In contrast, Qatar and the U.S. have signed an agreement to strengthen education in Afghanistan, committing $50 million to the cause [SOURCE - Khaama] [SOURCE - Khaama].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Kiribati, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ท Nauru, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฌ Papua New Guinea, ๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ธ Samoa, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง Solomon Islands, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ด Tonga, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ป Tuvalu, ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡บ Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Federated States of Micronesia, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ญ Marshall Islands, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ผ Palau

Oceania News Summary

Australia is currently grappling with a potential fuel crisis, as reserves dwindle and forecasts suggest significant implications for the economy and transportation-dependent industries. The situation remains fluid, with the exact consequences yet to be fully understood. In the midst of these concerns, the royal coachmaker Jim Frecklington announced that the custom-built carriage for King Charles is nearing completion, showcasing a commitment to craftsmanship and tradition in the face of economic uncertainty [SOURCE - ABC News].

Tragedy struck the Jewish community in Australia when a synagogue was targeted in an attack deemed an act of terror. This incident prompted the Australian government to establish an antisemitism task force aimed at monitoring and combating hate crimes [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post]. Meanwhile, the banking sector is under scrutiny as Australia moves to scrap AT1 bonds following the Credit Suisse collapse, a decision reflecting the government's commitment to financial stability [SOURCE - LiveMint].

On the international front, Australia is strengthening its economic ties with India, reviewing the progress of a proposed free trade agreement that could reshape trade dynamics between the two nations [SOURCE - NDTV Profit]. However, a recent report indicates that Australia is facing an accelerating political crisis, raising concerns about the direction of the country's leadership [SOURCE - World Socialist Web Site].

Turning to New Zealand, the economy is under pressure, with the Reserve Bank welcoming a new financial policy remit aimed at supporting growth, though critics warn of potential impacts on debt levels [SOURCE - Scoop]. Additionally, a report has raised alarms about the increasing presence of private equity firms, which could exacerbate inequality and reduce competitiveness [SOURCE - Scoop].

In Fiji, the government faces mounting debt concerns, with pressures on funding obligations in the Pacific region [SOURCE - RNZ]. The health sector is also in crisis, as the Fiji Medical Association has called for a declaration of an HIV outbreak amid rising cases [SOURCE - RNZ]. Furthermore, illegal immigration is surging, with the undocumented migrant population reportedly doubling in the past year, raising significant implications for labor and security [SOURCE - RNZ].

In the Marshall Islands, diplomatic efforts are underway to establish a security framework in the Asia-Pacific region, with the U.S. pushing for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to counterbalance Chinese influence [SOURCE - BBC News].

As climate change continues to threaten the Pacific, Tuvalu faces dire challenges, including rising sea levels and the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Melinda, which left many without shelter [SOURCE - UN OCHA]. The government is exploring migration options, with a significant portion of the population willing to consider relocating to New Zealand [SOURCE - RNZ].

In Tonga, political instability has emerged as Prime Minister Hu'akavameiliku resigned ahead of a no-confidence vote, a move believed to stem from a rift with the royal family [SOURCE - ABC News].

Lastly, Nauru grapples with an environmental crisis stemming from its phosphate mining industry, which has left a legacy of toxic waste and high debt, raising concerns about the nation's economic viability [SOURCE - Al Jazeera].

Carpe tomorrow!