Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

New Year attacks in the US and Russian gas stops flowing to Europe

Good morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.

There were two apparent terrorist attacks in the US. In New Orleans, a driver deliberately drove into a crowd celebrating New Year, killing 15. While in Las Vegas the driver of a vehicle detonated his Cybertruck outside the Trump Tower killing himself but no others. [More - Bloomberg]

Note the attack in New Orleans was very similar to the Christmas market attack in Germany on December 20 [More - Al Jazeera] and there are growing concerns over future domestic terror attacks in the US [More - BBC]

Russia stopped transporting gas to Europe via Ukraine as the current transport arrangement lapsed. This was long-anticipated, so there will be little effect on Europe, which has sought alternate supplies of gas, but Moldova, which is outside the EU, is now facing enormous gas shortages. [More - BBC]

Key Metrics

WTI is $70.38 (Down)

Low |--- < ----------------| High

Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

Low |------ < -------------| High

EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

Low | < -------------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |---------- < > ---------| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 02 2025 08:05 UTC

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced that the Budget 2025 will be tabled on February 18, marking the start of the budget preparation process for the nation. This comes on the heels of a robust economic performance, with Singapore's economy growing by 4% in 2024, surpassing expectations and showcasing the country's resilience in a challenging global environment [SOURCE - CHANNEL NEWSASIA].

However, environmental concerns have emerged following a suspected oil leak at Shell's Pulau Bukom refinery, which led to a temporary shutdown of operations. Fortunately, the leak has been contained, and cleanup efforts have been completed, alleviating fears of long-term ecological damage [SOURCE - CHANNEL NEWSASIA].

In the realm of international trade, Singapore's economic relations are set to strengthen further with the upcoming upgrade of the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, which is expected to enhance bilateral trade opportunities [SOURCE - PAKISTAN TODAY]. This development underscores Singapore's strategic positioning as a trade hub in Asia.

Meanwhile, tensions are escalating in the Taiwan Strait, where Chinese military activities have intensified. Taiwan's military reported multiple incursions by Chinese warplanes and vessels, prompting the island to bolster its defense measures. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated that the reunification with Taiwan is non-negotiable, further straining relations [SOURCE - NDTV].

In response, Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has committed to increasing the island's defense budget, reflecting a growing recognition of the military threat posed by China [SOURCE - THE HINDU]. This military buildup is occurring alongside Taiwan's efforts to strengthen economic ties with the United States, which remains a critical ally in the face of Chinese aggression.

In South Korea, political turmoil has reached a boiling point as the acting president was impeached, further complicating the country's leadership crisis. This political instability has raised concerns about the potential impact on South Korea's economy, which has been showing signs of growth despite the chaos [SOURCE - TIMES OF INDIA].

As the region grapples with these multifaceted challenges, economic relations remain a focal point. India is projected to account for 25% of global oil demand growth in 2025, driven by a burgeoning middle class and increasing domestic consumption [SOURCE - FORBES]. This growth trajectory is attracting foreign investment, with institutional investors remaining optimistic about India's economic prospects.

In Vietnam, the government has imposed a 97% anti-dumping duty on Chinese wind towers, reflecting a growing trend among nations in the region to protect domestic industries from perceived unfair trade practices [SOURCE - BANGKOK POST]. This move aligns with similar actions taken by India, which has also initiated anti-dumping probes against Chinese imports.

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇹🇴 Tonga, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇼🇸 Samoa

Regional News Summary

Australia's economic landscape continues to show resilience, with the S&P/ASX 200 index recently closing at 5,050.37, reflecting a 0.5 percent increase. This upward trend is complemented by Toyota Finance Australia's stable semi-annual figures, indicating a steady performance despite challenging market conditions [SOURCE - Investing.com].

In the realm of international trade, the relationship between India and Australia has flourished significantly. India's exports to Australia surged by an impressive 64.4 percent in November, with bilateral goods trade more than doubling in the fiscal year 2023. The Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) has played a pivotal role in this growth, with trade reaching $16.3 billion from April to November 2024, and a 14 percent increase in Indian exports since the agreement's inception [SOURCE - Economic Times].

On the defense front, Australia has bolstered its military capabilities with the delivery of its 72nd F-35 stealth fighter jet, further enhancing its strategic posture in the region [SOURCE - The National Interest].

Meanwhile, New Zealand is experiencing a mixed bag of weather forecasts, with many regions expecting clearer skies this weekend, although some areas may still face increased rainfall [SOURCE - RNZ - Radio New Zealand]. However, the nation is grappling with a disturbing 80 percent increase in retail bankruptcies in 2024, a trend that could have significant implications for its economy [SOURCE - Forbes].

In a tragic incident, a New Zealand police officer was killed in Nelson, highlighting the risks faced by law enforcement personnel [SOURCE - ABC News - Australian Broadcasting Corporation]. This incident underscores the ongoing challenges in maintaining public safety and the need for continued support for law enforcement agencies.

Fiji is also navigating complex international relations, with recent accolades for its emergency services underscoring a commitment to domestic security. As Fiji strengthens ties with India, the potential for enhanced defense cooperation may emerge, opening avenues for collaborative operations [SOURCE - Scoop News].

In the Marshall Islands, extreme weather events pose a significant threat, with projections indicating that rising sea levels could render 12 islands uninhabitable within the next 25 years. This situation necessitates urgent climate resilience efforts to mitigate the impacts of flooding and infrastructure damage [SOURCE - BBC News].

Carpe tomorrow!