Good morning.

The French government collapsed after far-right and far-left parties united in a vote of no confidence, forcing out Prime Minister Michel Barnier. What happens next is unclear. Elections cannot be called until July leaving President Macron to try to establish some form of functional government within the existing Assembly, where the three main groups are riven by differences. [SOURCE and long read - Bloomberg]

Events are escalating in Georgia, where the country is about to enter its second week of protests against the suspension of EU ascension talks. On Wednesday, several opposition figures were forcibly arrested in Tbilisi. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has vowed to take a hard line against the protests and shows no indication of backing down from his anti-European stance, despite the protests and resignations of senior party figures and some Ambassadors. [SOURCE - BBC]

China cut off exports of some rare earth minerals to America in response to another round of restrictions on hi-tech equipment exports from the US to China. These export restrictions are on a national security basis, but China remains the world’s largest producer of these minerals, which are critical to the semiconductor industry. [Source - Al Jazeera]

(Our deep Dive report on rare earth minerals is here, although note that it is from February, so the country ratings may have changed. I will public an updated version of this and other research reports soon.)

There was more evidence of the ‘Trump Trade’ as Bitcoin broke the $100,000 barrier following President-elect Trump’s nomination of a pro-crypto head for the SEC. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Lawmakers in Seoul will vote on Saturday to impeach President Yoon after his short-lived imposition of martial law. The current turbulence in normally stable South Korea is causing significant uncertainty. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]

A quick ask

There’s a poll at the bottom of the report and it would be incredibly useful if you could take 30 seconds to let us know how we’re doing. Good, bad, ugly? Just let us know. Thank you 🙏

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Dec 5, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Asia Stability Ratings

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Asia News Summary

In Singapore, Amazon's substantial investment of over S$2 billion has led to the creation of more than 10,000 indirect jobs, underscoring the country's growing tech industry [SOURCE - MANILA TIMES]. Additionally, the Singapore Management University has secured a landmark S$1 million grant from the Aptos Foundation to establish its first professorship in blockchain, enhancing the nation's digital economy [SOURCE - MANILA TIMES].

However, Singapore is also grappling with social issues, as highlighted by the United Nations' call to halt the execution of a dual national convicted of drug smuggling, igniting a debate over the country's strict capital punishment laws [SOURCE - SCOOP.CO.NZ]. Furthermore, the availability of HIV self-testing kits at retail pharmacies aims to increase awareness and promote responsible behavior in combating HIV/AIDS [SOURCE - CHANNEL NEWS ASIA].

In the realm of international relations, the Singapore-Johor Bahru Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link is nearing completion, marking a significant milestone in enhancing rail connectivity between Malaysia and Singapore [SOURCE - MALAY MAIL].

Meanwhile, tensions continue to simmer between the United States and China, particularly following a recent prisoner swap that offered a glimmer of hope for improved relations. However, the U.S. plans to impose AI sanctions on China and restrict semiconductor exports to 140 entities, which has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing [SOURCE - RT]. The U.S. also approved a $385 million arms sale to Taiwan, further straining relations with China [SOURCE - JAPAN TIMES].

In Pakistan, military-level talks with China on counter-terrorism reflect the strengthening defense ties between the two nations [SOURCE - DECCAN CHRONICLE]. However, the country is also facing internal challenges, with increasing sectarian violence resulting in over 130 deaths [SOURCE - TIMES OF INDIA].

In Vietnam, the government has approved a massive $67 billion high-speed rail project aimed at enhancing connectivity and boosting the economy [SOURCE - BANGKOK POST]. However, the country is also tightening controls over social media, raising concerns about civil liberties [SOURCE - VOA NEWS].

Oceania Stability Ratings

More Unstable

🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇹🇴 Tonga

Oceania News Summary

Australia is facing an avocado shortage that is expected to drive prices up, benefiting local growers, particularly in Northland, New Zealand, where demand is anticipated to rise as a result of Australia's reliance on international trade [SOURCE - RNZ News]. However, the Australian government is also under scrutiny for a significant increase in student visa fees, which has raised concerns among Indian students and their families, as the fees have surged by over 100% to AUD 1,600 [SOURCE - LiveMint]. This financial burden comes at a time when Australia is also considering a world-first social media ban aimed at regulating digital competition among tech giants [SOURCE - Michael West].

In the realm of business, Canberra has been recognized as the best state in Australia for business operations, reflecting its growing influence in trade and local industries [SOURCE - Michael West]. Meanwhile, the Australian salmon market is seeing new entrants, with AquaChile and Camanchaca making their first shipments to Australia, indicating a potential growth in regional trade agreements [SOURCE - Undercurrent News].

New Zealand, on the other hand, is strengthening its international ties through sanctions against Russia and Iran, while also engaging in trade talks with India, albeit facing some hurdles [SOURCE - Tass] [SOURCE - RNZ]. Domestically, the country is grappling with economic challenges stemming from bird flu, which has led to the suspension of poultry imports from certain regions [SOURCE - RNZ]. Additionally, the New Zealand Supreme Court has upheld an appeal regarding Māori customary rights, highlighting ongoing social issues [SOURCE - Jurist].

In the Pacific, the Marshall Islands are facing a dual crisis of escalating non-communicable diseases and regional tensions, particularly in light of China's growing influence. The nation's leader has called for urgent action to address health concerns [SOURCE - RNZ]. Taiwan's President recently visited the region, aiming to strengthen alliances amidst these tensions [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily].

Climate change remains a pressing issue for many Pacific nations. Tuvalu is particularly vulnerable, facing rising sea levels and frequent flooding, prompting the government to invest in infrastructure projects to mitigate these impacts [SOURCE - Fiji Times]. Vanuatu has taken a significant step by initiating a landmark case at the International Court of Justice to hold nations accountable for their climate responsibilities [SOURCE - Business Mirror].

Carpe tomorrow!