Good morning.

Something that’s not appearing in the news very much — and therefore slipping by the models — are a series of violent attacks in China including a mass stabbing and a motorist killing 35 people in a deliberate attack. Chinese authorities are quick to clamp down on any event that suggests a lack of control, and news of these events is suppressed, as reported by the BBC.

These events are being described by perpetrators as "taking revenge on society" and are taking place relatively frequently. This might not indicate some greater unrest in China, but at an individual traveler level, it means that a higher degree of caution is needed than the official statistics around crime and violence suggests.

(On a technical note - I’m working on ways to get more non-traditional news sources into the model to help provide a richer picture of events.)

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Nov 13, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, the stock market is showing resilience amid global economic uncertainties, buoyed by strong fundamentals and a robust manufacturing sector. Analysts predict further gains, although external factors like fluctuating oil prices could pose risks. The recent U.S. presidential election results may also influence Singapore's trade relations, with potential benefits from a more aggressive U.S. trade policy under a second Trump administration, as noted by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's readiness to engage with the new administration [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

Meanwhile, Singapore is emerging as a key player in the global semiconductor industry, with Tata Group expressing interest in collaboration, further solidifying its position as a hub for foreign investment [SOURCE - The Hindu].

In China, the economic landscape is adjusting to the implications of the U.S. election, with the yuan losing value and stock prices fluctuating. The Chinese government is responding by lowering fuel prices amid global oil market volatility. However, optimism remains as focus shifts to Beijing's stimulus plans, which aim to stabilize the economy [SOURCE - Investing.com].

China is also strengthening its international ties, notably with Uzbekistan in textile and apparel projects, and sealing significant trade deals with Indonesia worth $10 billion, enhancing its influence in Southeast Asia [SOURCE - Manila Times].

In the Philippines, the government is grappling with the immediate threat of Typhoon Yinxing, prompting evacuations and military readiness as the country faces its fourth typhoon in a month [SOURCE - Bangkok Post]. Concurrently, the Philippines is enhancing its maritime security by purchasing a U.S. missile launcher, a move likely to escalate tensions with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea [SOURCE - Financial Times].

In Myanmar, the situation is dire as famine looms in Rakhine state amid an ongoing civil war. The United Nations has warned of a humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by the junta's efforts to consolidate power [SOURCE - The Daily Star].

In Sri Lanka, relations with India are under scrutiny as both nations discuss maritime security amid rising tensions involving fishermen. The country is also facing internal challenges, including a recent assassination plot linked to Iranian operatives, raising concerns about regional security [SOURCE - The Hindu].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇹🇴 Tonga, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu

Regional News Summary

Australia has taken significant steps to bolster its international relationships and address domestic challenges. Amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, Australia reaffirmed its support for the Philippines as it enhances its territorial security. This commitment includes strengthening military ties and cooperation with regional partners, particularly the United States, reflecting the complex security dynamics in Southeast Asia [SOURCE - Business Mirror].

Domestically, Australia is implementing a ban on social media access for children under 16 without parental consent, aiming to protect young Australians from online risks such as bullying and mental health issues [SOURCE - NDTV]. Meanwhile, the Australian economy is showing resilience, with key sectors like finance and manufacturing performing steadily, as indicated by a positive stock market outlook [SOURCE - Investing].

The Reserve Bank of Australia has expressed caution regarding the potential inflationary impacts of the upcoming US elections, emphasizing the need for close monitoring of global economic conditions [SOURCE - Investing]. Additionally, the Minerals Council of Australia is advocating for regulatory reforms to expedite the opening of new mines, highlighting the need for greater flexibility to enhance competitiveness in the global minerals market [SOURCE - ABC].

In the realm of international relations, tensions have escalated between Canada and India following Canada's ban on the media outlet Australia Today, which was clarified to be a decision by Meta platforms rather than the Canadian government [SOURCE - The Hindu]. Meanwhile, India's External Affairs Minister met with his Australian counterpart to discuss regional security and economic cooperation, underscoring the strengthening ties between the two nations [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior].

Turning to New Zealand, the tourism sector is thriving, with RealNZ receiving top honors at the 2024 New Zealand Tourism Awards, highlighting the country's appeal as a travel destination [SOURCE - Scoop]. However, concerns about the country's financial outlook persist, with discussions around potential cuts to its aid program and the implications for international partnerships [SOURCE - RNZ].

Fiji is also navigating a complex landscape, with the release of a former Prime Minister raising questions about the justice system and political stability [SOURCE - RNZ]. Furthermore, Fiji's Foreign Policy White Paper has sparked debate regarding its commitment to peace in the Indo-Pacific [SOURCE - The Diplomat].

In the Marshall Islands, rising tensions over nuclear ballistic missile testing by the United States have prompted strong reactions from local leaders, emphasizing the need for international dialogue on security and environmental concerns [SOURCE - RT].

Final Factoid

Two interesting charts from Martin Wolf’s piece in the FT today. The upshot: manufacturing isn’t coming back to the US - we’re too wealthy.

Carpe tomorrow!