Good morning.

Three quick headlines.

Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan’s civil war. [SOURCE - BBC] Note, Sudan remains one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises but seems overshadowed by the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. Read more on the humanitirna situation in Sudan from ReliefWeb.

The Tunisian opposition leader was badly injured in an acid attack and had been hospitalized. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] The exact motive remains unclear but Tunisia’s opposition has been slowly whittled away since Kais Saied’s unconvincing electoral victory in October.

The Danish Navy is reported to have detailed a Chinese vessel in connection with Monday’s severing of an undersea telecoms cable between Germany and Finland. [SOURCE - Defence24]

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Nov 20, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Europe News Summary

Switzerland's economy is on an upward trajectory, bolstered by a significant rise in exports that is contributing to GDP growth. This positive economic climate is further complemented by the anticipation of wage increases in 2025, a development likely influenced by the country's effective management of inflation [SOURCE - Le News].

In France, heightened security measures have been implemented ahead of a football match against Israel, following violent clashes between fans in Amsterdam. The French government has deployed a substantial police presence, including surveillance drones, to ensure safety during the event, which is expected to draw a large crowd despite the risk of protests [SOURCE - Forbes]. This match occurs amid ongoing protests in France regarding the Gaza conflict, further complicating the atmosphere surrounding the event [SOURCE - CBS News].

The geopolitical landscape is also shifting, with France's relations with Israel strained over efforts to exclude Israeli companies from the Paris Air Show [SOURCE - Globes]. In a separate humanitarian effort, France has pledged over $3 million to support children and mothers in Afghanistan, reaffirming its commitment to global humanitarian causes [SOURCE - Khaama].

As the conflict in Ukraine approaches its 1,000th day, the situation remains dire. A recent large-scale Russian attack on Odesa resulted in casualties and injuries, while Ukraine's President Zelenskyy expressed hope for a resolution under a potential Trump administration [SOURCE - Breitbart]. The international community is divided on how to respond, with Germany preparing for elections that could impact its support for Ukraine [SOURCE - VOA News]. Ukraine used US ATACAM missiles to hit targets inside Russia for the first time [SOURCE - BBC]. In apparent response, Russia formalized a proposed change to her nuclear policy, adding conventional attacks by states backed by nuclear powers as potential triggers for nuclear retaliation. [SOURCE - BBC]

In Poland, the opening of a new US missile defense base has raised tensions with Russia, which has vowed to respond to this perceived provocation [SOURCE - Zee News]. Meanwhile, Poland's stock market has faced declines, and the government is investing heavily in AI research to bolster its innovation sector [SOURCE - Notes from Poland].

The economic landscape in Italy shows mixed fortunes, with household income growing rapidly, yet the country faces challenges in English proficiency and a trimmed growth forecast from the EU [SOURCE - ANSA]. Protests against government policies are gaining momentum, reflecting broader discontent with the current administration [SOURCE - ABC News].

In Spain, severe weather has caused significant disruptions, with heavy rains leading to flooding and school closures in several regions [SOURCE - ABC News]. The economic impact of these disasters is compounded by fluctuations in the stock market, reflecting broader uncertainties in the European economy [SOURCE - Investing.com].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇪🇬 Egypt

MENA News Summary

On November 13, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted airstrikes against Iran-backed militia targets in Syria, a response to recent rocket attacks on U.S. forces in the region. This operation underscores the ongoing volatility in Syria, where multiple factions vie for control and influence [SOURCE - UPI].

In a notable shift, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hopes to normalize relations with Syria, signaling a potential thaw in diplomatic ties that have been strained for years. Erdogan's administration is also reportedly preparing for a cross-border operation in northern Syria, raising concerns about further destabilization in the region [SOURCE - TASS].

Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated dramatically. Israeli forces have intensified their military operations in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions in response to ongoing rocket attacks. Recent airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties, including the deaths of key Hezbollah officials, further complicating the already fragile security situation in Lebanon [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post]. 

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is also deepening, with calls from international leaders for Israel to address the worsening conditions for civilians [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News]. Adding to the suffering, in several recent cases, humanitarian aid allowed into the Gaza Strip was stolen [SOURCE - BBC]  or destroyed in Israeli attacks [SOURCE - Haaretz], further restricting the food available.

In Iraq, the government has made strides in addressing historical injustices, compensating victims of human rights abuses during the Islamic State's reign. This move is part of a broader effort to stabilize the country and foster reconciliation among its diverse communities [SOURCE - Human Rights Watch].

The situation in Yemen remains precarious as Houthi rebels continue to launch attacks on U.S. warships, prompting retaliatory airstrikes from the U.S. military. This ongoing conflict poses significant challenges to regional stability and highlights the complex interplay of local and international interests in the area [SOURCE - IFP News].

Final Factoid

The Soviet Union, and presumably now Russia, had an automated ‘Perimeter System’ that would allow the country’s nuclear arsenal to be launched even if no one was able to initiate the attack.

Sadly, the ‘Buzzer’ number station may not be part of the system.

Carpe tomorrow!