Good morning and a Happy New Year from windy Washington, DC. Wishing you a successful, safe and fulfilling 2025.

Just the numbers and regional info today and tomorrow, but the full SITREP will be back on Friday and next week I’ll be sharing the 2025 look-ahead.

Key Metrics

WTI is $70.38 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 01 2025 08:05 UTC

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland

Regional News Summary

Switzerland's banking sector is under scrutiny as Novartis faces bribery allegations related to its Multiple Sclerosis treatment, Gilenya. This controversy comes at a time when the Swiss National Bank has opted for a cautious stance in foreign exchange markets, despite a rally in the Swiss franc during the third quarter [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In the realm of foreign relations, Switzerland's foreign minister emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable relationships with neighboring countries. The nation has also played a pivotal role in facilitating high-level diplomatic efforts, including peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, with Slovakia confirming its willingness to host these discussions [SOURCE - VOA News].

As Switzerland navigates these challenges, it is also grappling with the balance between climate protection and renewable energy development in the Alps [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In France, the government is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts concerning Ukraine, despite skepticism from the European Union regarding the deployment of peacekeepers. French Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has revealed that France has offered to conduct secret talks with Russia on the Ukraine issue [SOURCE - RT]. Meanwhile, France has begun its military withdrawal from Chad, handing over its first military base as part of this process [SOURCE - France 24].

Domestically, France continues to face rising crime rates, with intelligence officials warning of extremist groups attempting to influence the country. The government has also launched missile strikes against Islamic State positions in Syria, demonstrating its commitment to combating terrorism [SOURCE - Protothema].

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains a focal point in Eastern Europe, with reports indicating that Russia may be planning further aggression towards Moldova. Ukraine has accused Russia of sacrificing North Korean soldiers in the conflict, highlighting the brutal nature of the ongoing war [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In response to the escalating situation, the U.S. has announced a substantial security assistance package for Ukraine, totaling $2.5 billion, as part of its ongoing support for the country amidst the conflict [SOURCE - ifpNews].

Poland is also navigating complex geopolitical waters, with plans to seal its border with Belarus in response to increased migration attempts, which the Polish government attributes to Belarusian facilitation [SOURCE - Financial Times]. Additionally, Poland is set to take Hungary to the EU court over asylum issues, reflecting ongoing tensions between the two nations [SOURCE - Notes from Poland].

In Serbia, protests have erupted following a tragic incident where a concrete canopy collapsed, resulting in multiple fatalities. The public's anger has led to calls for accountability and improved safety measures in infrastructure projects [SOURCE - VOA News].

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic faces a declining population and missed economic opportunities, with experts warning of a challenging year ahead due to a lack of investment and skills mismatch in the labor market [SOURCE - Radio Prague International].

As Europe grapples with these multifaceted challenges, the interconnectedness of economic, political, and social issues continues to shape the continent's landscape, demanding careful navigation by its leaders.

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇹🇳 Tunisia

Regional News Summary

Tensions are escalating in the Middle East, particularly along the Turkey-Syria border, where Turkey has threatened to "bury" Kurdish forces in Syria. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov acknowledged Turkey's security concerns but refrained from specifying which groups would be targeted, highlighting the ongoing friction between Turkey and Kurdish factions in the region [SOURCE - IFP News].

In Syria, the long-ruling Baath Party is facing a significant collapse, with the new government cracking down on former regime loyalists, resulting in nearly 300 arrests. The Syrian government has announced that elections will take up to four years to organize [SOURCE - The Hindu]. Amidst this political upheaval, Turkey is looking to invest in Syria's oil and gas sector, aiming to establish partnerships with the new government [SOURCE - Financial Post].

Internationally, Ukraine has pledged humanitarian support to Syria, providing 500 tons of wheat, while France has conducted airstrikes against ISIS positions in the country [SOURCE - RT]. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified its military operations, conducting airstrikes near the Syrian capital that reportedly killed 11 people, further exacerbating sectarian tensions within Syria [SOURCE - VOA].

In Yemen, the conflict has escalated as Israel launched airstrikes against Houthi targets, killing at least three individuals. This action was part of Israel's broader strategy to counter the threats posed by Iran-backed Houthi rebels [SOURCE - Algemeiner]. The Houthis retaliated by launching missiles at Israel's Nevatim airbase, which were intercepted by Israeli defense systems [SOURCE - Khaneh Online]. The United Nations condemned Israel's strikes, asserting that the targeted airport was civilian, not military [SOURCE - France 24].

In Egypt, the government is taking steps to transition more than one million cars to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as part of its energy strategy, despite facing economic challenges, including a 60 percent decline in Suez Canal revenues [SOURCE - Azer News]. Egypt is also enhancing its strategic partnerships, including a new Suez Canal extension aimed at boosting capacity and safety [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In Jordan, farmers are grappling with rising costs and unpredictable weather, a situation exacerbated by climate change [SOURCE - The Jordan Times]. The country is also seeking to strengthen economic ties with the European Union, which could provide a vital source of growth [SOURCE - The Jordan Times].

As the region continues to navigate these complex dynamics, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains dire, with significant civilian casualties reported amidst ongoing military operations [SOURCE - KOAT]. International efforts to provide aid are hampered by the escalating violence, underscoring the urgent need for a resolution to the ongoing conflicts across the MENA region.

Carpe tomorrow!