Good morning.

(Reminder: Thursday and Friday’s SITREPS will only contain the stability ratings as we are observing Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day .)

In Pakistan, supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan have been pushed out of central Islamabad by security forces, although they have not fully dispersed and thousands remain in the city. [SOURCE - BBC]

Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, pausing the year-old conflict in Lebanon. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{As at Nov 27, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Europe News Summary

Note - Apologies, but due to a technical error, the hyperlinks for the European news did not render correctly today. 

Switzerland's National Bank has reaffirmed its commitment to combating inflation, emphasizing price stability as its primary goal amidst ongoing global economic pressures. This focus comes as the Swiss government prepares for a vote on changes to healthcare funding rules, aiming to adapt the system to the evolving needs of the healthcare sector. Additionally, Switzerland is set to trial electronic signature collection for referendums, a move designed to enhance democratic participation and streamline processes for citizens. In a separate initiative, local voters in Uri have approved plans for a hotel and marina complex, signaling a push towards boosting tourism and economic growth in the region. Meanwhile, Lucerne voters have backed the rapid expansion of wind energy projects, reflecting a growing commitment to renewable energy sources [SOURCE - Reuters][SOURCE - Le News][SOURCE - Swissinfo].

However, Switzerland is also facing scrutiny regarding national security, as the University of Basel has implemented stricter measures for Chinese students amid counterespionage concerns. Furthermore, the Global Forum on Transparency has urged Switzerland to take action against corruption risks, highlighting the need for integrity in international relations. In a notable foreign policy decision, the Swiss government has barred exports to a Polish firm after reports indicated that Swiss-made ammunition was used in Ukraine, underscoring Switzerland's commitment to humanitarian law [SOURCE - Japan Times][SOURCE - Swissinfo][SOURCE - ABC News].

In France, the geopolitical landscape is shifting as President Xi of China has identified the country as strategically significant. France's active role in global affairs includes joint naval drills with Korea and participation in G20 talks, where diverse economic philosophies were discussed. Domestically, France is grappling with budget constraints that have led to protests among workers, particularly in the farming sector, against proposed trade agreements and environmental policies. Additionally, a mass rape trial has sparked nationwide outrage, raising concerns about gender-based violence and law enforcement accountability [SOURCE - Pakistan Today][SOURCE - Korea Times][SOURCE - France 24].

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, with Ukraine striking Russian targets using U.S.-supplied missiles, marking a significant intensification of hostilities. In response, the Biden administration has approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, a move welcomed by Ukrainian leadership. Meanwhile, North Korea has reportedly dispatched 11,000 troops to support Russia, raising alarms about the potential for broader regional conflict. The situation remains precarious as both sides engage in missile strikes and counter-attacks, with Russia vowing to continue hypersonic missile tests despite international criticism [SOURCE - CBS News][SOURCE - CBS News][SOURCE - Khaama Press].

In Poland, tensions are rising as officials with degrees from a university implicated in a corruption scandal have been ordered to retake their exams, reflecting a broader push to restore public trust in governance. Additionally, the Polish government has faced criticism for its handling of healthcare issues, with protests erupting over low wages and staffing shortages in the sector. As the political landscape shifts, the ruling party has named Rafał Trzaskowski as its presidential candidate, setting the stage for upcoming elections [SOURCE - Notes from Poland][SOURCE - Notes from Poland].

Calin Georgescu, described as a pro-Russia far-right ultranationalist, handily led the first round of Romania’s Presidential elections. Georgescu is anti-EU and anti-NATO, meaning a victory in the run-off on December 8 would be a significant challenge to Brussels and NATO allies. [SOURCE - BBC]

Serbia is experiencing unrest following a deadly roof collapse at a train station, leading to protests demanding accountability. The incident has highlighted broader concerns about infrastructure safety and governance in the country. Meanwhile, Serbia's close ties with Russia are under scrutiny, particularly as President Vucic comments on nuclear threats from Moscow, raising questions about Serbia's commitment to European integration [SOURCE - Serbian police][SOURCE - TASS].

In the Nordic region, Denmark has detained a Chinese ship suspected of severing undersea cables, raising concerns about hybrid warfare and regional security. This incident underscores the delicate balance of power in the Baltic Sea, where Estonia is particularly vulnerable to cyber threats. Sweden, meanwhile, is enhancing its military capabilities and has pledged support for Ukraine's production of long-range missiles and drones, reflecting a proactive approach to regional security [SOURCE - Defense 24][SOURCE - RT][SOURCE - TASS].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

MENA News Summary

In Syria, Israeli airstrikes have intensified, targeting various locations including the historic city of Palmyra, resulting in at least 36 fatalities. The Syrian government has condemned these actions as "flagrant aggression" and "a war crime" [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post]. Concurrently, Turkey's military campaign in northern Syria has created a humanitarian crisis, leaving over a million people without access to water, prompting calls from the Syrian government and international organizations for an end to hostilities [SOURCE - The Canary].

The international community has reacted with caution. The United States has refrained from directly condemning Turkey's actions, which has strained relations between the two nations [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News]. Meanwhile, Israel's airstrikes have drawn criticism globally, with many countries advocating for a ceasefire.

In Lebanon, the conflict with Israel escalated sharply, with Hezbollah launching missile attacks on Israeli targets, prompting Israel to bolster its military presence along the Lebanese border [SOURCE - France 24]. Note - this was prior to Tuesday’s ceasefire.

Amidst this turmoil, Egypt's President Anwar El-Sisi has been actively engaging in diplomacy to strengthen ties with key nations, positioning Egypt as a critical player in global affairs [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. However, Egypt faces its own challenges, including a recent tragedy where 17 tourists went missing after a yacht capsized in the Red Sea, underscoring the vulnerabilities the country faces amid regional instability [SOURCE - Al-Monitor].

In Yemen, the Houthi rebels have continued their aggressive actions, targeting international vessels and prompting the U.S. to withdraw warships from the region following a missile attack on the USS Abraham Lincoln [SOURCE - News18]. This escalation has raised concerns about regional stability, particularly as Saudi Arabia seeks to assert its influence amidst ongoing humanitarian crises in Yemen and the broader Middle East.

Final Factoid

Here’s a brief history of how Thanksgiving became a holiday in the US from the Economist from 2017.

Notably, it begins, “By tomorrow, over 46m Americans will have crisscrossed their country to spend Thanksgiving with family and friends,”: estimates this year are that 80 million Americans will be traveling for the holiday.

Carpe tomorrow!