Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Happy Chrismukkah ๐ŸŽ… ๐Ÿ•Ž

Good morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating.

Just the numbers and regional info today.

Key Metrics

WTI is $71.03 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 25 2024 08:06 UTC

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia And Herzegovina, ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France, ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece, ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Macedonia, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Moldova, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช Montenegro, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Andorra, ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria, ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Liechtenstein, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡จ Monaco, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom

Regional News Summary

Switzerland has been navigating a turbulent period marked by significant developments in banking, trade, and foreign investment. The Swiss parliament is currently investigating the collapse of Credit Suisse, revealing critical shortcomings in the nation's banking regulations. This inquiry has prompted calls for reform within the Swiss financial sector, as the banking regulator faces scrutiny for its oversight failures [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

Amid these challenges, Switzerland has successfully negotiated a historic trade agreement with the EU, aimed at strengthening economic ties during these uncertain times. The deal has elicited mixed reactions from the Swiss press, oscillating between optimism and skepticism [SOURCE - IBTimes].

In a notable move to bolster its global investment profile, Switzerland-based Terminal Investment Limited has announced plans to invest approximately โ‚น20,000 crore in the Vadhvan port project in India. This investment is expected to significantly benefit the Indian economy and reinforce Switzerland's role as a key player in foreign direct investment [SOURCE - NDTV Profit].

Meanwhile, France is grappling with a political crisis as Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has stepped down, leaving the country without a functioning government. The situation remains tense as President Emmanuel Macron has tasked new Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve with forming a government capable of addressing the nation's crippling debt and high unemployment rates [SOURCE - Hursiyet Daily News].

In a significant shift in military policy, France has begun withdrawing troops from Chad, marking the end of a 60-year military presence in its former colony. This withdrawal reflects a broader trend of reducing military engagements in Africa [SOURCE - Economic Times India].

On the international front, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains a focal point of diplomatic efforts. NATO Chief Rutte has emphasized the urgent need for support for Ukraine, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed a willingness to meet with Donald Trump to discuss potential agreements regarding Ukraine [SOURCE - France24].

In Poland, the government faces economic and military challenges, with Deputy Defense Minister Wojciech Skurkiewicz stating that military aid to Ukraine has hit a wall. This comes as Poland's defense chief insists the country is prepared to confront Russian threats [SOURCE - RT]. Additionally, Poland's industrial production has decreased, yet consumer spending remains resilient despite rising inflation [SOURCE - RTT News].

In Serbia, a burgeoning anti-corruption movement has emerged following a tragic train station accident, prompting widespread protests led by students demanding greater accountability from the government [SOURCE - Jurist]. This unrest coincides with the rejection of the Serbian government's candidacy in the Kosovo elections, further straining regional relations [SOURCE - Protothema].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq, ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel, ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง Lebanon, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ Libya, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Syria, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia, ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

No countries were unchanged over this period

Regional News Summary

In recent weeks, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has witnessed significant shifts in power dynamics, particularly in Syria, where the landscape is rapidly evolving following the fall of the Assad regime. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new leader of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government, has called for the lifting of sanctions on Syria, emphasizing the need for basic services such as electricity and clean water. This shift has led to speculation that Turkey's President Erdogan will exert greater control over Syria, with local leaders like Jolani acting as proxies for Turkish interests [SOURCE - The Duran].

The United States has responded to the changing situation by doubling its troop presence in Syria, now totaling 2,000, as part of a strategic effort to maintain stability in the region [SOURCE - Times of India]. Meanwhile, the Syrian Kurdish groups find themselves at a disadvantage as the balance of power shifts further away from their control [SOURCE - The Daily Star].

Russia's withdrawal from Syria has also raised questions about its influence in the region. President Putin has attempted to downplay the implications of this exit, asserting that it does not diminish Russia's standing [SOURCE - The Week]. In contrast, Iran's position in Syria appears increasingly precarious, particularly following a recent ban on Iranian flights over Syrian airspace, which complicates Tehran's ability to project power [SOURCE - Khabar Online].

As tensions escalate, Israel has intensified its military operations, conducting airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in response to missile attacks on Israeli territory [SOURCE - JPost]. The Houthis, backed by Iran, have launched attacks that have injured civilians in Israel, prompting a robust military response from both Israel and the United States, which has also conducted airstrikes against Houthi positions [SOURCE - VOA].

In Yemen, the ongoing conflict has exacerbated a severe cholera outbreak, with the World Health Organization warning of the highest burden of cholera cases globally [SOURCE - IFP News]. This humanitarian crisis is compounded by the military escalation, which has further destabilized the region.

Meanwhile, Egypt has made strides in humanitarian efforts by enacting its first asylum law, allowing the country to provide protection to migrants. This development reflects a growing recognition of the importance of humanitarian efforts amidst regional instability [SOURCE - Protothema]. Additionally, Egypt has attracted significant foreign investment in renewable energy, with a new solar manufacturing hub set to advance regional energy goals [SOURCE - Manila Times].

Carpe tomorrow!