Decis SITREP: Europe & MENA Roundup

Good morning. Here’s today’s SITREP covering Europe, The Middle East and North Africa.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

_{*Price of 1EUR in USD. Values updated ~0600ET Nov 12. Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.}

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

🇮🇸 Iceland

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Regional News Summary: Europe

Switzerland's economy continues to thrive, with strong growth reported in the third quarter. Redcare Pharmacy has announced impressive sales growth, alongside Burckhardt Compression, which has also seen increased profitability [SOURCE - Business Insider Markets]. However, Switzerland's relations with the European Union remain strained, particularly concerning the contentious Swiss cohesion contribution, which continues to be a sticking point in ongoing negotiations between Swiss officials and EU leaders [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In the realm of immigration policy, the Swiss Federal Council has announced plans to resume deportations of Afghan and Ukrainian 'criminal migrants', a move that has sparked debate within the country [SOURCE - Khaama News].

Meanwhile, the political landscape in the UK is shifting as the ultra-rich feel the impact of Labour's tax-raising budget, reflecting a broader trend of increased tax burdens globally [SOURCE - CNBC].

The conflict in Ukraine remains a focal point of concern, with reports indicating the introduction of North Korean troops into the fray, raising alarms about the potential escalation of the war [SOURCE - The National Interest]. The Biden administration is reportedly expediting aid to Ukraine ahead of the anticipated Trump inauguration, with Germany pledging €4 billion in support despite its own economic challenges [SOURCE - The Zimbabwe Mail]. Donald Trump's recent election victory, has raised concerns about the future of international relations and support for Ukraine [SOURCE - VOA News].

In France, the government is grappling with a tax fraud investigation involving Netflix, as authorities raided the company's offices amid allegations of financial wrongdoing [SOURCE - NBC News]. This investigation comes at a time when France is also dealing with heightened security concerns following violent incidents related to soccer matches, prompting the deployment of thousands of police officers [SOURCE - Toronto City News].

The economic landscape across Europe is further complicated by natural disasters, as Spain faces devastating floods that have claimed at least 223 lives, leading to widespread protests against the government's handling of the crisis [SOURCE - BBC News]. This disaster underscores the urgent need for improved disaster preparedness and response mechanisms in the face of climate change.

In the Baltic region, Poland is positioning itself for economic growth, with potential GDP boosts from decarbonization efforts and a strong defense sector amid ongoing tensions with Russia [SOURCE - Investing.com]. However, the country is also facing challenges related to migration policies and economic downturns affecting major corporations like Stellantis [SOURCE - Investing.com].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇹🇳 Tunisia

Regional News Summary: MENA

Strategic tensions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are escalating, particularly in Syria, where various global powers are recalibrating their military strategies amidst a complex web of alliances and conflicts. Recent Israeli airstrikes near Damascus targeted Hezbollah intelligence assets, part of a broader Israeli campaign aimed at reshaping the regional balance of power. [SOURCE - ABC News].

Iran's influence in Syria continues to grow, with the unveiling of the new Quds-40 missile system, which enhances Iran's military capabilities in the region [SOURCE - India Today]. The U.S. has also withdrawn additional troops, signaling a potential shift in strategy [SOURCE - Syrian Observatory for Human Rights].

The humanitarian crisis in Syria is exacerbated by these military escalations, raising alarms about the stability of the region. A recent conference in Kuwait aimed to address counter-terrorism efforts, co-sponsored by Syria, highlighting the international community's concern over the deteriorating situation [SOURCE - SANA].

Qatar has expelled Hamas leaders following Qatar’s suspension of mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas, further complicating the already volatile situation [SOURCE - India Today].

Meanwhile, in Yemen, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for shooting down a U.S. drone, prompting retaliatory strikes by the U.S. against Houthi weapons facilities. This conflict has spilled over into Saudi territory, raising concerns about a broader regional escalation [SOURCE - IB Times].

In Lebanon, the conflict with Israel has resulted in significant casualties, with over 3,000 reported deaths amid ongoing airstrikes and military operations. Hezbollah has mobilized tens of thousands of fighters, indicating a readiness for prolonged conflict [SOURCE - Ya Libnan]. The Israeli military's intensified airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah positions, leading to further escalation and international condemnation [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post].

In Egypt, the government has condemned Israel's ban on the UN Palestinian agency UNWRA as "unacceptable," reflecting Cairo's ongoing concern over the Palestinian issue [SOURCE - The Jordan Times]. On a lighter note, Egypt's archaeological discoveries in Luxor, including sealed burials with jewelry, highlight the country's rich historical heritage amidst these geopolitical tensions [SOURCE - NDTV].

Final Factoid

The Trump victory has been great for ‘digital gold’ (aka Bitcoin) but not the real thing.

Chart - Bloomberg (prices at the close of markets Nov 11)

Carpe tomorrow!