Eyes On Bangladesh, America and Venezuela

Decis Monday Briefing & Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 22 2024

Author

Andrew Sheves
July 22, 2024 • Time to Enlightenment...12 minutes

Good morning.

Here’s a quick round-up of some significant stories to help you prepare for the week(s) ahead. But first, the stability matrix.

Apologies but you’ll need to turn your phone and zoom in if you’re reading this on a mobile - I’ll work on enlarging the matrix over time.

Reminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer

Is somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix.

Events of interest that we’re monitoring.

🇧🇩 Bangladesh

Bangladesh is assessed as stable but more turbulent than normal.

Bangladesh is experiencing the most turbulence it has faced in years as students — and a growing range of supporters — protest a reinstituted job quota law. The Bangladeshi Supreme Court has overturned the rule but deaths related to the protests have now topped 100 and the demonstrators’ grievances seem to have expanded to a broader critique of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s rule.

This raises the stakes for the government with respect to curbing the protests, as a widespread revolt would be much more difficult to deal with than single-issue protests.

  • Organizations with significant exposure to Bangladesh should take steps to adapt to widespread, sustained disruptions to operations there.

  • Businesses without a direct flow of goods from Bangladesh should review their supply chains to determine how any widespread disruption might affect them. (See below.)

Bangladesh: Main Exports and Export Destinations

(2020, via Wikipedia)

Exported goods

  • Cotton textiles and knitwear, jute and jute goods, fish and seafood, leather and leather goods, home textiles, pharmaceuticals, processed food, plastics, bicycles.

Main export partners (showing the percent of exported goods to a destination)

  • Germany(+) 16%

  • United States(+) 15.2%

  • United Kingdom(+) 7.41%

  • Spain(+) 7.17%

  • Poland(+) 5.552%

  • France(+) 4.2%

  • Netherlands(+) 3.55%

  • Italy(+) 3.36%

Want more on planning for supply chain disruption? (Of course you do!)

Here’s the Decis News Summary for Bangladesh for the period July 15 - July 21.

This week's critical events in Bangladesh centered around widespread student protests and violent clashes over government job quotas, resulting in numerous casualties and significant civil unrest. The protests, which began over quotas in government jobs reserved for veterans' families, [SOURCE] quickly escalated into broader anti-government demonstrations. The death toll from the protests rose sharply, with reports indicating at least 32 people killed [SOURCE], although some sources claimed even higher numbers. The violence led to the destruction of property, including the torching of a state TV network building [SOURCE].

In response to the escalating situation, the Bangladesh government imposed a curfew and deployed the army to maintain order [SOURCE]. The unrest also prompted international reactions, with the United States issuing a "don't travel" alert for Bangladesh [SOURCE]. The crisis had significant implications for foreign nationals in Bangladesh, particularly Indian students. The Indian government facilitated the return of over 4,500 Indian students from the violence-hit country [SOURCE].

Ongoing issues of note included the potential political ramifications of the protests, with some sources suggesting the unrest could snowball into a broader anti-government movement [SOURCE]. The Bangladesh Supreme Court's decision to scale back job quotas that sparked the protests [SOURCE] may have implications for future stability in the country.

🇺🇸 USA

The USA is assessed as stable but more turbulent than normal.

‘A week is a long time in politics’ has a whole new meaning after the last few days in the US….

The presidential race is a lot more competitive now that President Biden has removed himself from the ticket and endorsed Vice President Harris, energizing the Democratic base, which had all but given up hope for a win in November. This moves the race back onto a competitive footing where, up until mid-last week, former President Trump seemed to have a clear path to victory against a very weak Democratic nominee.

Leaders in the US and abroad have been preparing for what had appeared to be a very likely Trump victory but this is now a very competitive race.

  • Leaders — in business and government — should prepare for either outcome, and think carefully about the ramifications of going all-in for either candidate.

Ramifications

The outcome of the US election has very wide-ranging ramifications and there will be a great deal of uncertainty and instability in America between now and the inauguration of the next President. Therefore, we’ll be publishing some deep-dives into the US election over the next few weeks to help prepare for what might lie ahead.

Here’s the Decis News Summary for the USA for the period July 15 - July 21.

This week's critical events centered around the Republican National Convention (RNC) and the ongoing presidential campaign, with significant developments shaping the political landscape. Donald Trump formally accepted the Republican nomination for president, delivering a speech that called for unity and emphasized a message of "running to be President for All America, not half of America" [SOURCE]. This speech marked Trump's first public appearance since a recent assassination attempt, which he recounted during his address [SOURCE]. J.D. Vance was formally nominated as the Republican vice presidential candidate, taking the stage at a rally in Michigan where he criticized Vice President Kamala Harris [SOURCE].

In a shocking turn of events, reports emerged that Joe Biden has dropped out of the presidential race, though this information requires further verification [SOURCE]. This development, if confirmed, would dramatically alter the dynamics of the upcoming election.

Ongoing issues of note included: 1. The debate over political violence in America, with concerns raised about increasing polarization and its potential impact on the country's stability [SOURCE]. 2. Foreign policy challenges, particularly regarding China and Taiwan, with discussions about U.S. defense commitments and strategic realignment [SOURCE]. 3. Climate change concerns, illustrated by viral but misleading maps showing potential impacts on the U.S. [SOURCE]. 4. Ongoing support for Ukraine, with NATO emphasizing the importance of continued U.S. backing [SOURCE]. These events and themes reflect a nation grappling with domestic political tensions, international commitments, and long-term environmental challenges as it approaches a pivotal election.

Remember, you can access country information 24/7 via the Decisi Intelligence Chrome Extension

The country information you need, always at your fingertips

🇻🇪 Venezuela

Venezuela is assessed as critically unstable and more turbulent than normal

Venezuelans go to the polls next week (July 29th) with the opposition seeming to hold a substantial lead despite the many obstacles President Maduro has put in place to limit their effectiveness. Winning the vote would not be enough for the opposition to defeat Maduro, however, as was the case in the past: he could simply ignore the results or claim fraud and annul the election.

However, Venezuelans have now suffered a high degree of economic hardship and harsh conditions under Maduro’s 11 years in power, so there may be much less leeway for him to ignore the results and stay in power. Opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia are holding together a fragile but large opposition coalition, so they might be able to bring sufficient pressure on Maduro to step down in the event of a loss, but that is a big maybe in a place as turbulent as Venezuela.

Elsewhere, China and Russia view Venezuela as a strategic block against US influence in the region. They would want to keep a more pro-US group out of power, but it is unlikely they would do much more than provide some financial and vocal support to Maduro. Any interference in an election so close to home would be too much of a direct confrontation with Washington for Beijing or Moscow to risk interference.

Here’s the Decis News Summary for Venezuela for the period July 15 - July 21.

This week's critical events in Venezuela centered around the upcoming presidential election and its far-reaching implications. The political landscape remains tense, with President Nicolás Maduro's government facing significant opposition amid economic challenges and social upheaval. The opposition is grappling with a complex electoral system, which they claim [SOURCE] is designed to confuse voters and potentially manipulate results. Despite polls showing a substantial lead for the opposition, there are concerns that this may not translate into electoral victory due to various factors, including potential voter suppression and government tactics [SOURCE]. Maduro has escalated tensions by warning of potential bloodshed if he is not re-elected [SOURCE], while also claiming that extremists are plotting to sabotage the election [SOURCE]. These statements have further polarized the political climate and raised concerns about the integrity of the electoral process.

The economic situation continues to be a central issue, with the government pushing for legislative changes to pivot towards non-oil exports [SOURCE]. This move comes as Venezuela's economy shows signs of improvement, though challenges persist [SOURCE]. The ongoing crisis has had profound social impacts, affecting personal relationships and leading to increased migration. Many Venezuelans are considering leaving the country if Maduro wins re-election [SOURCE], highlighting the deep-seated frustration and lack of faith in the current government.

Internationally, Venezuela remains a focal point in the geopolitical competition between major powers, with Russia and China vying for influence in the region against the United States [SOURCE]. Russian lawmakers are set to monitor the presidential election [SOURCE], adding another layer of international scrutiny to the process. As the election approaches, the Venezuelan diaspora, unable to vote from abroad, is finding alternative ways to oppose Maduro's regime [SOURCE], demonstrating the global reach of Venezuela's political struggle.

Final Factoid

Containers: still very expensive

12-month FBX container price index via Freightos @ Freigtos.com

That’s it for today. I’ll be back with some additional analysis of the potential ramifications of the US Presidential election later this week.

Don’t forget to check out the supply chain deep dive from earlier this year to help you plan for any potential supply chain disruptions.

Carpe tomorrow!