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- Famine, Oil Production Forecasts, and Custom Metrics
Famine, Oil Production Forecasts, and Custom Metrics
Good morning.
Some quick updates today plus I’m sharing an example of the personalized SITREPS I announced yesterday.
Famine in the Horn of Africa and North Korea
Wheat and grain prices remain high making many food staples more expensive around the world but there are also many who are living in famine or near-famine conditions (Axios). The Horn of Africa is undergoing another period of drought following its fifth failed rainy season. This places millions in Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya in severe danger of acute malnutrition. (UNICEF)
There are also reports from North Korea of severe food shortages which have prompted an unusual, emergency meeting of the country’s ruling party. The government in Seol has raised concerns about the situation in North Korea and believes that food is in short supply but not at famine levels yet. (Reuters) Meanwhile, North Korea observers from US group 38-North recently published an article titled “Food Insecurity in North Korea Is at Its Worst Since the 1990s Famine”, an event when it is estimated that between 600,000 and over 1 million North Koreans starved. (38 North)
Although tragic, the effects of these two humanitarian disasters will remain relatively contained but North Korea does have a history of provocative actions when under pressure.
A new North Korean ICBM on display earlier this month. Image: North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS
These have included missile launches and military exercises close to the border with South Korea, actions that Pyongyang may resort to in order to force some kind of an aid deal while still projecting strength externally and internally.
Oil Demand Forecasts
The IEA just updated its forecast for global oil demand, estimating that the world will require an additional 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year, largely due to China’s economic reopening. However, the report believes that a surplus will remain through the first half of the year due to current oversupply, but that demand will start to outstrip production in the second half of the year. (Bloomberg)
This would suggest minor price fluctuations through mid-year but that price increases are more likely in the second half of the year.
On to the personalized numbers…
Relative Values (90-Days)
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Trends (21-days)
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(As I announced yesterday, I’m now rolling out personalized reports where the metrics are put into context for your organization, along with an assessment of the risk and appropriate mitigation measures. As an example, I’ll be sharing reports for an example firm for the rest of the week but don’t worry, the key metrics are still included.
If you’d like to try the custom reports, try a trial of the PRO plan here
Customized Daily SITREP for Tarjuman LLC (example)
Current risk / opportunity profile
Shipping
Summary
The Shipping (FBX) index is currently $1976.
Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.
Risk Profile
For Tarjuman LLC, shipping presents a Significant opportunity.
Response considerations
Impliment contingencies:
Pre-book next quarter’s shipments
Wheat
Summary
Wheat is currently $680.5.
Wheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little flutuation.
Risk Profile
For Tarjuman LLC, wheat presents a Low risk.
Response considerations
Conduct routine monitoring
Market Volatility
Summary
The Market Volatility (VIX) is currently 18.91.
Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.
Risk Profile
For Tarjuman LLC, volatility presents a Critical opportunity.
Response considerations
Impliment contingencies:
Look for competitors in distress and consider buy-out
Iron and Steel
Summary
The Iron and Steel index is currently $148.66.
Iron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.
Risk Profile
For Tarjuman LLC, iron and steel present a Low opportunity.
Response considerations
Conduct routine monitoring
Oil
Summary
Brent Crude futures are currently $81.35.
Brent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.
Risk Profile
For Tarjuman LLC, oil prices present a Low risk.
Response considerations
Conduct routine monitoring
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If you like the idea of customized SITREPs with:
Full daily SITREPS with all the data and analysisCustomized risk data for your organizationIn-depth research reports.
Oh, and you’ll save yourself hours each week…
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