Good morning.

🇵🇸 US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concern over Gaza's humanitarian situation as Israeli airstrikes killed 114 Palestinians on Thursday. The strikes hit homes and tents sheltering displaced families in Khan Younis, with Nasser hospital reporting 56 deaths including women and children. Gaza has been under complete Israeli blockade of all food and humanitarian supplies for 10 weeks, with the UN warning half a million people face starvation. More - BBC

🇺🇦 Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Sputter

Prospects for a Ukraine ceasefire dimmed after Putin sent low-level officials to Turkey negotiations while Zelenskiy dispatched his defense minister to lead Ukraine's delegation. Trump stated "nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together," suggesting the Russian leader's absence is deliberate stalling. European diplomats are now pushing for "bone-crushing" sanctions on Russia, with Senator Lindsey Graham's bill proposing a 500% tariff on countries buying Russian energy products to force Putin to meaningful negotiations. More - Bloomberg

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe

Regional News Summary

Violence and instability have escalated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where militias have seized control of key areas, leading to a grim reality for residents as corpses line the streets of a major city. This surge in violence has raised alarms about the deteriorating security situation in the region, prompting international concern about the humanitarian implications [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

Amidst this turmoil, Twangiza Mining has halted operations due to a tax dispute with the rebel administration, further exacerbating economic uncertainty in the region. The cessation of mining activities raises questions about the long-term economic stability of the area, which heavily relies on such industries [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance].

In a related context, the South African government has defended its military mission in the DRC, claiming it has been successful in stabilizing certain areas. Meanwhile, Botswana is preparing to relocate 469 asylum seekers to a refugee camp, reflecting the ongoing regional challenges related to migration and humanitarian crises [SOURCE - SABC News].

On the international stage, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is set to meet with former U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., amid concerns regarding cuts to USAID that could adversely affect African nations. This meeting highlights the ongoing dialogue about international support and development in Africa [SOURCE - Times of India].

In a separate diplomatic crisis, tensions between Algeria and France have escalated, with France vowing to respond to Algeria's plans to expel more French nationals. This tit-for-tat exchange has led to the expulsion of Algerian diplomats from France, further straining relations between the two nations [SOURCE - Al-Monitor]. Algeria has also reported exceeding its oil production targets, which may provide some economic relief amidst these diplomatic tensions [SOURCE - TASS].

In Kenya, the government has called for increased funding to support security efforts in Haiti, reflecting a commitment to international cooperation in addressing global security challenges [SOURCE - Livemint]. However, domestic issues persist, as Kenyan workers abroad face extreme exploitation, particularly in Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about the welfare of citizens working in foreign countries [SOURCE - Jurist].

Meanwhile, Nigeria grapples with a food security crisis due to water scarcity affecting crop production, which poses a significant threat to the country's ability to feed its population [SOURCE - ABC News].

In Zambia, the government has urged African nations to become self-sufficient and reduce reliance on foreign aid, a call for regional cooperation that resonates amid ongoing economic challenges [SOURCE - News Diggers!]. However, the U.S. has cut $1.4 billion in aid to Zambia over concerns of drug theft, further complicating the country's economic landscape [SOURCE - Zambia: News Diggers!].

Weekend Diversions

I found this paper on AI decision-makers in games that looks interesting, particularly as this point on decision-tree vs deep learning is very much top of mind for me at the moment as I rebuild the forecasting competition agents. Forecasting Future Behavior: Agents in Board Game Strategy

(And on the topic of AI in games, it’s never a bad time to (re)watch the Google Deepmind vs human Starcraft showdown.)

Ray Dalio’s Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order is topical and there’s a nice PDF of all the tables here. (And navigate up to economicprinciples.org for more of his writing and essays - I don’t agree 100% with all of his theories, but he is a gigabillionaire, so he’s doing something right….)

In the department of we can do nice things, this is a great use of AI and I am looking forward to seeing more of this, and less AI-generated ad-slop.

Have a great weekend

Carpe tomorrow!