Good morning.

Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend.

🔻 Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge

US stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump's new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. More - Bloomberg

🇵🇸 Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza

Israel is expanding military operations to "seize large areas" of Gaza and establish new security zones, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the creation of an additional security corridor called Morag that will further divide Gaza between Rafah and Khan Younis. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum criticized the move, asking if the government was "sacrificing hostages for capturing land" instead of securing their release through negotiations. Meanwhile, humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, with the World Food Program announcing that all its supported bakeries have closed due to lack of fuel and flour, and its final food parcels will be depleted by Thursday. More - Washington Post

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia

Africa News Summary

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Pakistan has urged the United Nations Security Council to adopt a dialogue-based approach to resolving the ongoing conflict, emphasizing that military solutions are inadequate. This call for dialogue coincides with planned direct talks between the Congolese government and M23 rebels, scheduled for April 9, which could represent a pivotal moment in efforts to end the violence [SOURCE - Associated Press of Pakistan] [SOURCE - SABC News].

Simultaneously, the DRC is also attracting foreign investment, with Rio Tinto in discussions to develop a significant lithium deposit. This project could provide a substantial boost to the country's economy, highlighting the potential for resource extraction to contribute to economic recovery amidst ongoing conflict [SOURCE - Seeking Alpha].

In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) has called for a national effort to counter what it describes as "right-wing extremists," reflecting the party's struggle to maintain its political base amid criticism over its economic management [SOURCE - Citizen]. Former President Thabo Mbeki has weighed in on international relations, characterizing Donald Trump's behavior as indicative of America's struggle for dominance, amidst rising tensions between South Africa and the United States over trade and intelligence issues [SOURCE - SABC News].

The economic landscape in South Africa is fraught with challenges, including the potential for a 25% tariff on US car imports, which has raised concerns among local automotive manufacturers [SOURCE - Citizen]. In a bid to stimulate growth, the Industrial Development Corporation has provided financial support to ArcelorMittal South Africa, averting the closure of a steel mill [SOURCE - LiveMint].

Meanwhile, Nigeria faces escalating security concerns as militants in the Sahel region have begun utilizing DIY drones, posing a significant threat to regional stability [SOURCE - Space War]. In the energy sector, Nigeria's state oil company has undergone a leadership change, with President Muhammadu Buhari appointing a new head amidst OPEC's decision to reduce oil output, which may further impact the country's economy [SOURCE - Times Live] [SOURCE - Financial Post].

In Sudan, the situation remains dire as the army has taken full control of Khartoum following intense clashes with the Rapid Support Forces. The deteriorating security environment has prompted the African Union to send mediators to South Sudan to salvage a fragile peace deal, although a militia chief has vowed to continue fighting, indicating that the conflict is far from over [SOURCE - Azer News] [SOURCE - SABC News].

Weekend Diversions

🤔 I’m starting a big reasoning project soon, so I have this paper, AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy, put aside. I also need to re-listen to this podcast from Cognitive Revolution where they discuss AI and forecasting.

🇨🇳 I am taking another swing at improving my China knowledge, this time with Kevin Rudd’s book on Xi Jinping.

Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!