☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [More - BBC]

🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg]

🇺🇳 The United Nations Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) ceased operations in Gaza as an Israeli law banning the organization came into effect. Although Hamas governed Gaza, UNRWA was the administrative backbone for the strip, running hospitals, schools and food distribution. The ban was imposed after it appeared that some UNRWA staff were also Hamas members but the ban leaves Gaza without any real form of administration and extends the humanitarian impact of the war. [More - alJazeera]

🇺🇸 America suffered its worst aviation disaster in decades when a regional jet on approach to DC’s Regan National Airport collided with a military helicopter on Wednesday night. There were no survivors from the 64 onboard the jet or the three helicopter crew. [Live updates - Wahington Post]

Self-Serve {API Access} Opens Up Next Week

APIs (application programming interface) used to confuse and terrify me, but I’ve come to realize that there are no bad APIs, only bad documentation and confusing connections. So I’ve spent a lot of time cleaning up the Decis API so it’s not a developer-level access point but a much more user-friendly tool.

But why does that matter if you’re not a developer?

Because a simple, self-serve API is something you can connect to a range of services. Services you use all the time like Excel or GoogleSheets. Or maybe to an RSS feed. So the technology isn’t important: the outcome is.

Now, you can have the Decis country data fed directly into the tools you use on your desktop so your country risk assessments or FOREX trading portfolio is always up to date. And my aim is that you can do it without being technical at all - in the case of Excel, it only takes half a dozen clicks to set up

(Don’t worry, devs, there’s still a GitHub page and manual setup if you prefer playing on hard mode.)

So if you fancy having dynamic country stability data fed directly into your day-to-day tools, you’ll love what I’m sharing next week. (You’ll like the price even more.)

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia

Regional News Summary

The ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has escalated dramatically, with the M23 rebel group making significant territorial gains in the eastern region, particularly around Goma. Accusations of Rwandan support for the rebels have strained diplomatic relations, prompting the DRC to sever ties with Rwanda and call for international intervention. The United Nations has warned that the situation could spiral into a regional war if not addressed promptly, with an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council scheduled to discuss the crisis [SOURCE - BBC News].

The humanitarian toll is severe, with thousands displaced and reports of civilian casualties and ethnic violence. The international community, including the United States, has urged for an immediate ceasefire and mediation efforts to prevent further escalation [SOURCE - ABC News].

In a related development, the conflict has also claimed the lives of South African soldiers involved in peacekeeping efforts, raising concerns about the safety of foreign troops in the region [SOURCE - The South African].

As the DRC grapples with this turmoil, neighboring countries are feeling the repercussions. Kenya's agricultural sector is under pressure due to climate change and counterfeiting, which has made access to seeds and agricultural inputs increasingly difficult for small-scale farmers [SOURCE - Financial Post].

Meanwhile, Nigeria faces a dual crisis of economic ambition and security challenges. The finance minister has set a tight deadline to double economic growth, but this goal is overshadowed by a recent tanker explosion that killed at least 18 people and a suicide bombing that claimed the lives of 27 soldiers [SOURCE - Times Live]. The fragile security situation complicates efforts to attract foreign investment, as the country considers introducing a fresh energy subsidy to bolster its $15 billion investor pitch [SOURCE - Financial Post].

In Sudan, the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen amid ongoing civil war. The World Health Organization has condemned attacks on healthcare facilities, following a drone strike that killed 70 people in El Fasher. The situation has led to a food crisis, with many struggling to access basic necessities [SOURCE - AsiaOne]. International calls for a ceasefire and humanitarian assistance are growing, but the conflict shows no signs of abating [SOURCE - Khaama Press].

In West Africa, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have officially withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), citing disputes with the bloc. This move is seen as a significant blow to ECOWAS's influence and may lead to increased military collaborations with Russia in the Sahel region [SOURCE - NDTV].

Long Reads

Weekend reads: fire behavior, the DRC, China plus some AI ‘homework’.

Wired republished this piece from 2020 on how fires behave differently, exceeding both our understanding of their behavior and our ability to respond. It’s worth a (re)read. Wired - The West’s Infernos Are Melting Our Sense of How Fire Works

CrisisGroup has a good overview of the current situation in the DRC and a breakdown of the regional players. Crisis Group - Fall of DRC’s Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War

I’m (still) working struggling my way through Everything Under the Heavens, a history of China by Howard French.

(And it’s not a read, but I’ll be browsing talks from the 2024 AI Engineer World’s Fair for tips as I’ve been asked to submit a virtual talk for the 2025 summit.)

Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!