Good morning.

(Headlines from me today, not the AI.)

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Fighting between India and Pakistan continues with reports of multiple strikes into both countries, including missile and drone strikes. The situation remains precarious and fast-moving with potential for escalation. Al Jazeera has a live tracker here

🇬🇧 The UK was in a deal-making mood, striking trade deals with India [BBC] and the USA [BBC]. Notably, this was the first deal with President Trump following the imposition of tariffs last month, although the UK has been pursuing a trade deal with the US since Brexit.

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trade talks between the US and China begin this weekend in Switzerland, although no one expects any substantial movement. President Trump did tease markets, telling investors to ‘buy stocks now’ which many have interpreted as a signal that he plans to ease tariffs on China. A ‘goodwill’ gesture prior to talks would allow Trump to ease pressure on the US without seeming to be pulling back from tariffs, although there is the possibility that this was also a prerequisite from Beijing for starting direct meetings. [More - Bloomberg]

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe

Regional News Summary

The DRC is currently at the center of regional peace efforts, with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo meeting Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa to discuss the ongoing crisis. This comes as regional blocs prepare to convene to address the situation, highlighting the urgency for diplomatic solutions in a nation grappling with conflict and instability [SOURCE - The Washington Post]. In a related initiative, Rwanda has showcased reintegration centers for former FDLR militiamen, marking a positive step towards fostering stability in the region [SOURCE - France 24].

However, the DRC faces challenges as farmers returning to their homes struggle to revive fields previously held by rebels, raising concerns about food security [SOURCE - SABC News]. Additionally, the DRC's mineral wealth remains a focal point, with experts emphasizing the need for transparency in the sector to avoid further conflict over resources [SOURCE - Just Security].

In a significant military development, the South African National Defence Force has begun withdrawing its troops from the DRC, a move that has sparked mixed reactions. While some view it as a necessary step, others criticize it as a sign of weakness [SOURCE - The Citizen]. This withdrawal coincides with a rise in economic activity, as International Container Terminal Services, Inc. reported higher earnings due to the strength of its foreign ports, including those in the DRC [SOURCE - BusinessMirror].

Meanwhile, Rwanda is also engaging in international discussions, confirming talks with the United States to host deported migrants, a move that could have significant implications for regional migration policies [SOURCE - Orange County Register]. This development is part of a broader strategy to address migration issues, with the Trump administration reportedly involved in facilitating these discussions [SOURCE - RedState].

In Namibia, the economy is showing signs of recovery, with the International Monetary Fund revising the country's growth forecast upward to 2.4% for 2023, driven by improvements in mining and agricultural production [SOURCE - International Monetary Fund]. Additionally, Namibia is making strides in environmental conservation, receiving a grant to support wildlife protection initiatives [SOURCE - The Namibian].

However, tensions are escalating between Morocco and Algeria, with accusations of support for separatist movements in Western Sahara leading to heightened diplomatic strains. Morocco's Foreign Minister has condemned Algeria's actions as hostile, further complicating the already fragile relationship between the two nations [SOURCE - Reuters]. The international community has called for dialogue to resolve the ongoing conflict, emphasizing the need for a peaceful solution [SOURCE - African News Agency].

Weekend Diversions

🛰️ An old Soviet satellite, Kosmos 482, is due to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere in the next few days, but the splashdown location for the 53-year-old satellite is unknown. You can track it via the European Space Agency.

🤦 The forecasting bot is not performing well, ~55/75. I haven’t had a chance to do any work on it for the last two weeks and it shows….

👷 This Wired article about AI safety is worth a look. Singapore’s Vision for AI Safety Bridges the US-China Divide

👀 The FT broke the Wirecard fraud scandal years ago but continues to track the story, which gets more wild each time. Bulgarian spy helped Wirecard’s Marsalek plan Kabul airlift for CIA, court told - FT

Have a great weekend and remember: Sunday is Mother’s Day. Call your mother!

Carpe tomorrow!