Good morning.

🇸🇩 Government Forces Retake Presidential Palace in Khartoum

Sudanese government forces have retaken the Presidential Palace in Khartoum but the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control large parts of the Sudanese capital. [Live coverage - BBC]

🛬 Heathrow Shuts Down After Nearby Fire

London Heathrow Airport faces unprecedented closure after a nearby electrical substation fire cut power to the hub, forcing cancellations of over 1,300 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. British Airways alone will see 677 flights impacted, and there are likely to be widespread knock-on travel delays for days. More - Bloomberg

🇵🇸 Hamas Fires Rockets into Israel as Gaza Offensive Accelerates

Hamas launched three rockets at Tel Aviv for the first time since Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, with most intercepted or landing in uninhabited areas. Israel has expanded ground operations, establishing a buffer in the Netzarim Corridor between north and south Gaza, while at least 591 Palestinians have been killed since Tuesday when the offensive resumed. Netanyahu insists ceasefire negotiations will continue "under fire," while hostage families accuse the government of abandoning their loved ones. More - BBC / Live coverage - AlJazeera

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania

Regional News Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is currently grappling with a significant humanitarian crisis, as an aid group forecasts that the number of forcibly displaced people could surge to 6.7 million by 2025-2026. This alarming prediction coincides with the withdrawal of troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), both of which have concluded their military missions in the eastern DRC due to a lack of success. In an effort to address the escalating violence, the DRC government has agreed to engage in peace talks with the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels in Angola, a move that is seen as crucial for restoring stability in the region. Despite the rebels intensifying their offensive, they have expressed a desire for peace ahead of the negotiations [SOURCE - SABC News].

In a related development, the presidents of the DRC and Rwanda recently met in Qatar, where they reached an agreement for an immediate ceasefire in the region [SOURCE - TASS]. However, the situation remains precarious, with the European Union imposing sanctions on Rwandan military officials for their involvement in the DRC conflict, prompting Rwanda to sever ties with Belgium [SOURCE - Financial Post].

Meanwhile, in South Africa, diplomatic relations with the United States have soured following the expulsion of South African ambassador Ebrahim Rasool, who was declared 'persona non grata' due to his criticisms of former President Donald Trump. This incident has been described by experts as a low point in US-South Africa relations, although South Africa has committed to continuing diplomatic efforts with the US [SOURCE - SABC News].

South Africa is also facing significant economic challenges, including a power crisis that has cost the nation an estimated $155 billion in 2023. Despite these difficulties, the country has seen a rise in the number of millionaires, even as it grapples with a wealth exodus [SOURCE - The South African]. In a bid to modernize its military, South Africa has sought assistance from Pakistan, while also welcoming a substantial investment from Google, which has launched a new cloud region in Johannesburg [SOURCE - Citizen].

In Kenya, the economy is facing setbacks as Sudan has banned all Kenyan imports, citing alleged ties between Kenya and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group in Sudan [SOURCE - BBC]. However, Kenyan coffee farmers may find some relief, as a UN report indicates that fluctuations in global coffee prices will not immediately impact them [SOURCE - The Sun].

In Nigeria, the energy sector has seen both promising developments and serious challenges. A joint venture has confirmed a significant hydrocarbon discovery, which could enhance the country's energy production [SOURCE - Rigzone]. However, violence continues to plague the nation, particularly against religious minorities, prompting President Bola Tinubu to declare a state of emergency in Rivers state [SOURCE - BBC].

The ongoing civil war in Sudan has intensified, with the Sudanese army making gains in Khartoum amid reports of severe humanitarian crises affecting civilians [SOURCE - BBC]. The international community is closely monitoring the situation, as discussions are underway involving the US and Israel regarding the resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza, which could further complicate regional stability [SOURCE - India.com].

Weekend Diversions

🤝 I have one piece of homework this weekend which is a piece from a few weeks ago by my friend Usmaan Ahmad, summarizing a recent AI + Negotiations summit at MIT. They covered a lot of ground and threw up some very challenging questions I am still mulling over. Read his article here.

🐈 vs ⚔️ Meanwhile, I am torn between enrolling our cat in a research program or playing more Baldur’s Gate to be better at business.

Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!