Good morning,

🇳🇵Nepal Protest Death Toll Hits 51

Nepal's anticorruption protest death toll reached 51 including 21 protesters, nine prisoners, and three police officers, while over 12,500 escaped prisoners remain on the run after jailbreaks during the chaos that saw parliament set ablaze and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resign. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki appears set to be appointed interim prime minister as she's seen as an "anticorruption voice" acceptable to Gen Z protesters, though uncertainty remains whether she can serve without being a parliament member, potentially requiring dissolution of parliament or constitutional changes. The army imposed curfews and recovered over 100 looted guns as shops began reopening Friday with signs of normalcy returning to Kathmandu, while some escaped prisoners reportedly tried crossing into India where border forces apprehended scores, as Nepal faces prolonged political uncertainty in a country wedged between India and China that has struggled with instability since abolishing its monarchy in 2008. More - Al Jazeera

🇲🇽 China Warns Mexico on Tariffs

China urged Mexico to "think twice" before imposing tariffs up to 50% on Chinese cars and other products, calling any levies "appeasement and compromise toward unilateral bullying" from the US as President Claudia Sheinbaum prepares for North American free-trade talks. Beijing's commerce ministry warned it would take "necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests" over Mexico's move to protect domestic industry under Trump's protectionist pressure, as Chinese exports to Mexico have nearly doubled since 2016 when companies relocated operations there to avoid US tariffs. Bloomberg Economics warned Beijing will likely retaliate with reciprocal tariffs immediately but risks alienating partners when it critically needs allies, as China runs a $71 billion trade surplus with Mexico and accounts for 5% of Mexico's copper ore imports in a tight global market. More - Bloomberg

🇺🇦 Ukraine Launches Massive Russia Drone Attack

Ukraine launched 221 drones against Russian territory in one of the largest aerial assaults since May, with more than half intercepted over Bryansk and Smolensk regions where Lukoil facilities were reportedly targeted, while a fire broke out at Russia's largest oil terminal in Primorsk's Baltic port. Seven people including five civilians were injured when a drone struck a bus in Bryansk, while operations at St Petersburg's Pulkovo airport were temporarily suspended during the attack across at least nine Russian regions. The assault follows escalating Ukrainian strikes that have hit deeper into Russian territory targeting refineries and fuel infrastructure, with Ukraine disabling 20% of Russia's oil refining capacity in August according to the White House, as Russian media warned petrol supplies were "near critical" with drivers facing rationing and soaring prices, while two civilians died in Ukraine's Sumy region from a Russian glide bomb strike. More - BBC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania

Regional News Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to be a focal point of global rivalries, particularly between the United States and China, due to its vast mineral resources. As demand for critical minerals and rare earths surges, the DRC has become a battleground for resource dominance. In response to China's growing influence in the rare earth market, the Trump administration has announced plans to invest billions in U.S. rare earth production, aiming to reduce China's market grip. This shift could significantly alter the global balance of power in the rare earth sector [SOURCE - Lowy Institute].

Amid these geopolitical tensions, peace talks between the Congolese government and the M23 rebel movement are set to resume in Qatar, as the humanitarian situation in eastern DRC deteriorates, leading to widespread displacement and suffering. The DRC's prosecutor has also sought capital punishment for the former president over alleged ties to rebel groups, highlighting the ongoing political turmoil [SOURCE - SANA].

The rivalry for the DRC's resources has sparked a new commodity boom, with countries like Japan entering the fray to secure access to Africa's markets and resources, further intensifying global competition [SOURCE - King World News].

In Algeria, India is strengthening its defense ties through talks between General Anil Chauhan and senior military leaders, reflecting India's strategic interest in bolstering cooperation with key African nations [SOURCE - The Hindu]. Meanwhile, France has returned looted human remains to Madagascar, a move that underscores the ongoing efforts of former colonial powers to address historical injustices [SOURCE - RT].

In the energy sector, OPEC+ is considering unwinding production cuts, a decision that could have significant implications for Algeria, a major oil producer [SOURCE - Rigzone]. Concurrently, a report indicates that China is arming 44 countries, including several in Africa, raising concerns about its expanding military influence in the region [SOURCE - RT].

In South Africa, the Reserve Bank's push towards a cashless society is set to transform the financial landscape, while the Airports Company plans to raise $569 million to enhance infrastructure [SOURCE - The South African]. However, the automotive sector faces challenges, with Ford South Africa announcing layoffs amid a broader crisis in the industry [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance].

In Nigeria, the government has secured long-term contracts for gas supply, a vital step for the economy, which is also grappling with a ban on the export of raw shea nuts to promote local processing [SOURCE - Times Live]. However, security concerns persist, with recent attacks in Zamfara state resulting in over 100 abductions and a cholera outbreak claiming lives [SOURCE - Japan Today].

Sudan is facing a staggering humanitarian crisis, with 30 million civilians in need of assistance as conflict continues to ravage the country. The situation is particularly dire in Darfur, where recent violence has resulted in numerous casualties [SOURCE - Human Rights Watch]. Human rights groups are calling for urgent action to protect civilians facing starvation and other emergencies [SOURCE - UN News].

In Zambia, President Hakainde Hichilema's administration is making strides in economic development, although challenges remain in the Constituency Development Fund and mining pollution [SOURCE - Zambia News Diggers!]. The government is also promoting small and medium-sized enterprises as a backbone of the economy [SOURCE - Zambia News Diggers!].

Weekend Diversions

There’s a lively debate going on about both more humanlike AI and anthropomorphizing / humanizing AI and this blog post from Mustafa Suleyman, one of the Deepmind founders, is worth a read. Importantly, I don’t believe that this is a purely technical debate: this is something we need to discuss as a society. otherwise the decision will be left to a handful of tech bros. We must build AI for people; not to be a person | Mustafa Suleyman

All I hear when people explain quantum computers is ‘it’s a one a zero at the same time’ which I don’t find particularly helpful so I’ll be delving into this intro lecture to MIT’s quantum day. Quantum Computing Day: Introduction to Quantum Computing | MI

Have a great weekend!

Carpe tomorrow!