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Latest Developments in the Israel-Iran Conflict (June 19–20, 2025)

Direct Military Actions

• Major Missile Attack on Hospital in Israel: On June 19, Iran launched a significant missile barrage against Israel, with a direct strike on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, southern Israel. The attack left the hospital burning and resulted in at least 65 injuries. Overall, Iranian missile attacks since June 13 have killed 24 Israelis and wounded more than 800[1][3].

• Israeli Strikes on Iranian Targets: In response, Israel’s Air Force conducted extensive operations over the past 24 hours. Sixty fighter jets participated in large-scale strikes on targets in Tehran associated with Iran’s nuclear weapons program and missile production capabilities. Israeli strikes hit centrifuge production, research and development sites, and the Tan police headquarters, believed to house internal security forces[2][3][4].

• Targeting of Nuclear Facilities: Notably, Israel struck the Arak Heavy Water Reactor and a storage facility connected to Iran’s nuclear program in Natanz. These are viewed as critical components in Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Additionally, Israeli forces have targeted at least six Iranian Ghadir radar installations, a key part of Iran’s air defense infrastructure[3][4].

• Impact on Iranian Military and Security Leadership: Israel has reportedly decapitated elements of Iran’s military leadership in its strikes, alongside attacking multiple nuclear facilities[4].

Regional and International Responses

• Israeli Leadership Statements: Israel’s Defense Minister called out Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by name, suggesting that the IDF has been instructed to consider Khamenei a legitimate target. Israeli officials clarified their desire for regime change is not the primary goal—the focus is on neutralizing Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities[1][2].

• US and Global Reactions: The US is weighing options, including the potential use of bunker buster bombs against Iranian nuclear facilities, but has yet to commit to direct intervention. Trump promised a decision “within two weeks”. Both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have discussed the crisis, indicating rising global concern[1].

• Cyber Operations: Israel is also accused of hacking into Iranian state television broadcasts as part of its multi-domain campaign[2].

Damage Assessments

• Human Impact: In Israel, at least 65 people were injured in the hospital strike alone. Total reported casualties since June 13 include over 800 wounded and 24 dead. The most recent Iranian missile volley caused more than 200 injuries in Israel[1][3][5].

• Infrastructure and Strategic Assets: The Soroka Medical Center sustained severe fire damage. In Iran, key nuclear and defense installations suffered extensive damage, including the Arak Heavy Water Reactor and major facilities in Natanz. Multiple advanced military radars and command centers were also destroyed or severely damaged[3][4].

Effects on Markets and Commodities

• Oil Markets: While the search results do not provide up-to-the-minute oil price data, such large-scale military exchanges and direct strikes on critical infrastructure in both Iran and Israel are historically known to cause significant volatility in global oil markets. Disruptions to Iranian oil exports or threats to regional stability (including the potential for expanded conflict affecting Persian Gulf shipping lanes) typically lead to spikes in oil prices, increased trading volumes, and tighter energy supplies.

• Broader Market Response: In similar past incidents, global equity markets often react with short-term declines amid heightened risk aversion, while gold prices and other safe-haven assets tend to rise as investors seek protection against broader geopolitical instability.

Sources and URLs

1. Fox News Live Updates (Strike on Soroka Medical Center, casualty reports, US/China/Russia responses)

2. ILTV News Flash (Details on Israeli airstrikes, nuclear sites targeted, regime statements)

3. Institute for the Study of War – Iran Update Special Report (Detailed analysis of strikes, nuclear facility targeting, radar destruction, injury figures)

4. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) – Assessment of Israel’s operations against Iranian military/nuclear targets

5. Fox News Digital (Additional missile attack and casualty context)

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 DRC - Rwanda Peace Draft

The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a provisional peace agreement in Washington aimed at ending conflict in eastern DRC, with formal signing scheduled for June 27. The deal addresses disarmament, armed group integration, and refugee returns after three days of US-mediated talks. Fighting escalated in January when Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured Goma and Bukavu, displacing hundreds of thousands, though at least six previous truces since 2021 have failed to hold. More - Al Jazeera

🇲🇽 Mexico Cleans Up After Hurricane

Southern Mexico began major cleanup efforts after Hurricane Erick struck as a Category 3 storm, leaving Puerto Escondido without power and flooding streets while damaging hospitals and infrastructure. The storm weakened to Category 1 after landfall with no reported deaths, though over 120,000 users lost electricity in Oaxaca state. Forecasters predict Erick will dissipate by Friday, but warnings remain for life-threatening flooding and 33-foot waves along the Pacific coast. More - BBC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇿🇲 Zambia

Regional News Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo continues to grapple with violence and unrest, recently exacerbated by a tragic incident where 52 people died after two passenger boats capsized on Lake Tumba during a storm. Amidst this turmoil, the United Nations has reported that Congolese rebels are seeking a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis [SOURCE - The Sun].

In response to the escalating violence, UNICEF has emphasized the urgent need for aid to support children fleeing the conflict in Eastern DRC. However, the UN has been forced to cut its global aid plan significantly due to unprecedented funding shortfalls [SOURCE - Forbes].

Meanwhile, the South African National Defence Force has begun withdrawing its troops from the DRC, marking a significant shift in military presence in the region. This withdrawal coincides with China's announcement of 28 infrastructure cooperation projects with various African nations, including the DRC, indicating a growing interest in the region's development [SOURCE - SABC News].

In Kenya, tensions have escalated following the death of a blogger and teacher, Albert Ojwang, while in police custody. This incident has sparked widespread protests demanding justice and accountability, leading to violent clashes with police, who have responded with tear gas and arrests [SOURCE - ABC News]. The unrest has drawn attention to the broader issues of police brutality and human rights in the country.

In Nigeria, a horrific attack by gunmen in Benue State has left at least 150 people dead, prompting renewed calls for accountability and enhanced security measures. The violence is part of a long-standing conflict between herders and farmers, which has drawn international concern, including support from the Pope for the Nigerian Church [SOURCE - ABC News].

In South Sudan, famine threatens two counties, compounding the humanitarian crisis in a region already fragile due to ongoing conflict. The situation is further complicated by a cholera outbreak spreading from Sudan to refugee camps in Chad, prompting urgent warnings from the World Health Organization [SOURCE - Scoop].

Amid these crises, the economic landscape in Africa remains challenging. In Lesotho, the garment sector is facing significant job losses due to US tariffs, while in Zambia, the government is making strides in managing its Eurobond debt and enhancing transparency in financial dealings [SOURCE - GroundUp].

In a notable development, Mali has taken control of a Canadian-owned gold mine amid a tax dispute, raising tensions between the Malian government and Barrick Gold. This situation highlights the complexities of foreign investment in resource-rich African nations [SOURCE - Financial Post].

Weekend Diversions

Cyber warfare is becoming an increasingly significant component of modern conflict, and these two Wired articles examine the background and current activities of the Israeli-linked group Predatory Sparrow.

• How a Group of Israel-Linked Hackers Has Pushed the Limits of Cyberwar (background article from 2024)

• Israel-Tied Predatory Sparrow Hackers Are Waging Cyberwar on Iran’s Financial System

Rafael Grossi is the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meaning his X account is worth following at the moment.

I found this ESRI 3D map, which is helpful if you want to track every satellite in orbit around Earth.

Have a great weekend

Carpe tomorrow!