Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Israel Strikes Iran, Air India Crash Kills 241, Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread, China Drops Africa Tariffs plus Weekend Diversions

Author

Andrew Sheves
June 13, 2025 • Time to Enlightenment...12 minutes

Good morning and apologies for the delayed SITREP.

🚨 Operation Rising Lion: Israel's Strike on Iran

This is the initial briefing from the Decis Analysis engine. The full Decis analysis and scenario forecasts are here

Updated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025

Timeline of Events

Early hours of June 13, 2025: Israel launches a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion." The strikes involve approximately 200 aircraft targeting roughly 100 sites across Iran. The operation is described as an extended campaign and represents the widest direct attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War.

Primary Targets

Nuclear Facilities:

  • Natanz uranium enrichment facility (Iran's primary uranium enrichment site): Significant damage reported to underground enrichment halls, centrifuges, electrical rooms, and supporting infrastructure. Reuters, Israel Hayom, CNN. No radiation leaks detected according to UN IAEA monitoring.

  • Isfahan nuclear facility: Also targeted in the operation.

Military Infrastructure:

  • Missile manufacturing facilities and long-range missile launch sites: Multiple locations attacked. Reuters, Israel Hayom, CNN

  • Military airfields and air defense systems: Numerous air defense launchers reportedly destroyed in western Iran. CNN

  • Ballistic missile bases: Targeted across multiple regions.

Command and Control Centers:

Residential Areas:

  • Senior officials' residences: Targeted in Tehran and other locations.

  • Civilian areas: Apartment buildings in Tehran reported damaged.

Geographic Scope

Strikes were executed across multiple Iranian regions including:

  • Natanz

  • Khondab

  • Khorramabad

  • Tabriz

  • Tehran

  • Isfahan

Casualties and Leadership Losses

Confirmed Deaths:

Nuclear Scientists Killed:

  • Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani

  • Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi

  • Abdulhamid Minouchehr

  • Ahmadreza Zolfaghari

  • Seyyed Amirhossein Faqhi

Multiple senior nuclear scientists and military leaders assassinated, including at their residences in Tehran. Israel Hayom, Al Jazeera, DW

Critical Injuries:

  • Ali Shamkhani: Adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei, critically injured (reports vary on whether he subsequently died). Al Jazeera

Civilian Casualties:

  • Several children reported killed in strikes on residential areas of Tehran. Reuters, Al Jazeera

Covert Operations

Israeli intelligence conducted covert sabotage operations from within Iran concurrent with the airstrikes.

Iranian Response

Immediate Military Retaliation:

  • Iran launched more than 100 drones toward Israel

  • Israeli air defenses reportedly intercepted all/most incoming drones

Leadership Statements:

  • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: Vowed "severe retaliation," warned Israel will face a "bitter and painful" fate. WSJ, Al Jazeera

  • Iranian Government: Labeled strikes a "declaration of war," imposed media blackout, withdrew from upcoming nuclear talks.

Israeli Response and Preparations

Defensive Measures:

  • State of emergency declared: Israel braces for further missile and drone retaliation. Reuters, WSJ, Israel Hayom

  • Air raid sirens: Sounded nationwide, though no direct attacks on Israel initially detected. Israel Hayom

  • Military mobilization: Reservists called up, flights grounded.

Regional and International Disruptions

Airspace Closures:

  • Iran suspended flights at Imam Khomeini Airport

  • Iraq and Jordan closed their airspace

International Reactions:

Arab States: Multiple Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Oman, condemned Israel's strikes, calling them violations of sovereignty and threats to regional stability. CNN

United States:

  • Confirmed it was not involved in the strikes

  • Warned Iran against targeting American forces

  • Relocated some diplomats and military families from the region

  • Pentagon stated no U.S. military involvement

UN IAEA: Confirmed no radiation leak at Natanz facility, expressed concern over the attacks.

Economic Impact

Market Reactions:

  • Oil prices surged 7-8%

  • U.S. stock futures declined following the strikes

🇮🇳 Air India Crash Kills 241

An Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, killing 241 of 242 people aboard in the deadliest aviation accident in over a decade. The London-bound flight plunged into a medical school dining hall during lunch, with pilots issuing a mayday call immediately after departure. This marks the first complete loss of a 787 aircraft, sending Boeing shares down 4.8% as investigators prepare for a thorough probe.

🇺🇸 Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread

Seven hundred Marines will join 4,000 National Guard troops on Los Angeles streets by Friday amid ongoing immigration enforcement protests, as DHS Secretary Kristi Noem announced over 1,500 arrests with "tens of thousands of targets" remaining. California Senator Alex Padilla was forcefully ejected and handcuffed during Noem's press conference, while the state seeks a federal court order to limit military deployment. Meanwhile, Trump plans a rare military parade in Washington Saturday featuring tanks and armored vehicles to celebrate the Army's 250th birthday, with nearly 2,000 counter-protests planned nationwide. More - Al Jazeera

🇨🇳 China Drops Africa Tariffs

China announced it will eliminate tariffs on imports from all 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, extending zero-tariff deals as Africa faces potential high US tariffs under Trump. The move excludes only Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan's independence, and comes as China imported $170bn worth of African goods in 2023 compared to the US's $39.5bn. Trump's proposed tariffs include 50% on Lesotho, 30% on South Africa, and 14% on Nigeria, though implementation has been paused until next month. More - BBC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania

Regional News Summary

Tensions in Central Africa have escalated significantly, particularly between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Rwanda's withdrawal from the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and a Central African bloc underscores the severity of the dispute, which has been fueled by accusations of the DRC supporting rebel groups within Rwandan territory. This situation has prompted calls for peace talks, as Rwanda faces accusations of covert military actions in the DRC [SOURCE - BBC].

In the midst of this instability, the resilience of the Congolese people shines through. Students in rebel-held eastern DRC have bravely taken their exams, demonstrating a commitment to education despite the ongoing insecurity [SOURCE - SABC News]. However, the United States has intervened, demanding the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from the DRC before any peace agreement can be finalized [SOURCE - SABC News].

Meanwhile, in North Africa, Algeria is grappling with severe drought conditions that have adversely affected its economy, particularly during the Eid al-Adha celebrations. Rising prices and dwindling livestock have compounded the challenges faced by the population [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press]. The European Union's recent decision to add Venezuela to its list of high-risk countries for money laundering, while not including Algeria, has raised concerns about the latter's economic stability [SOURCE - Financial Times].

In Southern Africa, South Africa's government has downplayed a recent US travel alert, asserting that it is addressing existing concerns [SOURCE - Citizen]. The country is also preparing for the G20 summit, with hopes of inviting former US President Donald Trump to attend [SOURCE - Lowy Institute].

Economic developments are also noteworthy, as the United Nations Trade Wing prepares to host the first-ever Global SME Ministerial in South Africa, aimed at enhancing small and medium-sized enterprises [SOURCE - NDTV Profit]. Additionally, Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal is reportedly planning to acquire diamond giant De Beers, signaling significant investment interest in the region [SOURCE - DNA India].

Weekend Diversions

Anthropic just released this free AI Fluency Course

Bloomberg Businessweek takes a long look at how the US tariffs are jeopardizing Vietnam’s economic future. Bloomberg - US Tariffs Threaten to Derail Vietnam’s Historic Industrial Boom

This article in Foreign Affairs examines the downside of America‘s energy independence. Foreign Affairs: Petrostate America - The Downsides of Energy Independence

Have a great weekend

Carpe tomorrow!