Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans

Good morning.

Two stories to help you stay up on top of things.

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces

Assad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad's fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced "coastal shield regiment" led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ European Leaders Increase Defense Spending, Seek Independence from the US

European leaders greenlit an โ‚ฌ800 billion defense spending plan and expressed continued support for Ukraine amid shifting US policy under President Trump. The proposal includes relaxing budget deficit rules for military investments and providing โ‚ฌ150 billion in loans for defense projects. French President Emmanuel Macron sparked discussion by offering to extend France's nuclear deterrence to European allies, drawing positive responses from Poland and Baltic states but criticism from Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Zelensky confirmed he will meet Saudi and US officials next week for potential peace framework talks. More - France24

Comment - this increase in European defense spending is what President Trump and other U.S. leaders have long advocated for, so it will be seen as a welcome step by many in Washington. However, the overall anti-European, America-first messaging from the White House and the abrupt suspension of military funding and intelligence sharing with Ukraine have led many to conclude that America is no longer a reliable ally.

Itโ€™s too early for definitive polling on this, but the sentiment that America is no longer a strong ally was already gaining traction in parts of Europe well before the recent turmoil over Ukraine.

Poll of Danish trust in the US as an ally vs a necessary partner 2023-2024

The collapse of trust in the US may be one of the most significant outcomes of Trumpโ€™s first 100 days and seems to foreshadow the end of NATO, where, ironically, the US is the only country to have ever invoked the Article 5 mutual defense pact after 9/11.

On to the ratings

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria, ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด Angola, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฏ Benin, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ Burkina Faso, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ Burundi, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Cameroon, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African Republic, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ Chad, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Comoros, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Democratic Republic Of The Congo, ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Djibouti, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ถ Equatorial Guinea, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท Eritrea, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Eswatini, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡น Ethiopia, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ณ Guinea, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ผ Guinea-Bissau, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท Liberia, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Madagascar, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ท Mauritania, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco, ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช Niger, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Republic of the Congo, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด Somalia, ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Sudan, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ Togo, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ญ Western Sahara, ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana, ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Namibia, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น Sรฃo Tomรฉ and Prรญncipe, ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ Tanzania, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฒ The Gambia, ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia

Africa News Summary

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), internal conflict continues to escalate, with government soldiers facing increasing casualties amid ongoing clashes with M23 rebels. The United Nations has raised alarms over the humanitarian crisis, particularly concerning attacks on hospitals by these rebels, which exacerbate the already dire situation for civilians [SOURCE - Jurist]. Additionally, tensions between the DRC and Rwanda have flared, with accusations from the DRC that Rwanda is manipulating narratives surrounding historical conflicts, a claim Rwanda vehemently denies [SOURCE - BBC].

Amidst these conflicts, the DRC remains a key player in the global market for rare earth minerals, particularly cobalt, which is essential for electric vehicle production. The country is reportedly in discussions with the United States to secure favorable trade deals, highlighting its strategic importance in the global supply chain [SOURCE - Financial Times].

In South Africa, the social fabric is under strain as antisemitism rises, evidenced by activists calling for the arrest of local Jewish individuals [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post]. This troubling trend coincides with a broader context of political and economic challenges, including cuts to U.S. funding for HIV programs, which have left many vulnerable individuals without essential healthcare [SOURCE - Channel 4 News]. Furthermore, the South African central bank has warned about the dangers of rising right-wing populism, which threatens to destabilize the economy [SOURCE - Financial Times].

Kenya is grappling with food security issues as the World Food Programme has closed its southern Africa office, a move that follows significant aid cuts from the previous U.S. administration. This has led to violent protests among refugees over food rations, highlighting the urgent need for humanitarian assistance [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press]. Additionally, security incidents continue to rise, further complicating the nation's stability [SOURCE - BBC News].

In Nigeria, the government is making strides in cybersecurity by hosting a summit aimed at protecting submarine cables, a crucial infrastructure for internet connectivity [SOURCE - TECHCENTRAL]. The establishment of a Distributed Renewable Energy Fund also signals Nigeria's commitment to transitioning towards cleaner energy sources [SOURCE - FINANCIAL POST].

As the humanitarian crisis deepens in Sudan, the United Nations has expressed concern over the leaders' roles in perpetuating violence and instability. The situation is exacerbated by cuts to international aid, which have left many vulnerable populations without necessary support [SOURCE - France24].

Weekend Diversions

Wired has a great story on how future aircraft may have bird-like feathers fitted to improve performance. Wired - Airplanes of the Future Could Be Fitted With Feather-Like Flaps

A significant proportion of the world will be tuning in to watch the finals of the ICC Champions Trophy on Sunday. The results will determine the mood of your Indian and New Zealand friends on Monday.

I love the Economistโ€™s data visualization, and among the most recent is their annual Glass Ceiling Index, marking International Womenโ€™s Day on Saturday. The Economist - The best places to be a working woman in 2025

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Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!