Good morning and Happy Friday.

Despite last-minute jitters, Israel and Hamas agreed to final ceasefire terms on Thursday but now the focus shifts to the Israeli cabinet which is currently meeting to vote on the deal [More - Washington Post]. The cabinet’s far-right members are vehemently opposed to the deal, threatening to bring down the government if it is approved.[More - Reuters] Many of their supporters spent Thursday night protesting the agreement, calling it a ‘Hamas victory’.

Israel’s domestic tensions have been put largely aside since October 7th but these will come to the fore as soon as the deal is inked. Israel’s external threats are significantly diminished and the country remains dominant militarily but domestically, the country is weak and about to begin a very difficult period.

Key Metrics

WTI is $79.57 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 16 2025 21:16 UTC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia

Regional News Summary

In Eastern Congo, the United Nations reports that over 100,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the year due to escalating violence and instability fueled by various militias and rebel groups. This humanitarian crisis highlights the persistent conflict that plagues the region, exacerbating the plight of vulnerable populations [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

Meanwhile, Sierra Leone has declared a public health emergency in response to the spread of mpox, a viral disease that has also been detected in other parts of Africa. This outbreak serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing public health challenges facing the continent, particularly in regions like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where health systems are already under strain [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In Nigeria, the humanitarian crisis deepens as the military faces scrutiny for errant airstrikes that have resulted in civilian casualties. A recent airstrike in Zamfara killed at least 16 civilians, following a similar incident that raised concerns about the military's operations against insurgent groups like Boko Haram, which continues to wreak havoc in the northeastern region [SOURCE - BBC]. The Nigerian government is also grappling with a severe food crisis, with over 26 million people facing acute hunger, highlighting the urgent need for effective humanitarian responses [SOURCE - The Conversation].

In South Africa, the economy is showing signs of potential recovery, with optimistic projections for 2025 attributed to the upcoming G20 summit, which is expected to attract significant investment. However, the country is also facing a staggering 400% increase in identity theft, raising concerns about security and crime [SOURCE - Citizen].

Kenya is making strides in addressing mental health issues, with the High Court moving to decriminalize attempted suicide, reflecting a broader commitment to improving mental health awareness. Additionally, the launch of the Tech4Nature project aims to protect vulnerable coral reefs, showcasing Kenya's efforts to balance economic development with environmental conservation [SOURCE - ET HealthWorld].

In Sudan, the military's ongoing conflict with the Rapid Support Forces has led to significant violence and displacement, with reports of over 100 civilians killed near Khartoum. The situation remains fluid, and the humanitarian crisis is expected to worsen as more than 3 million children face acute malnutrition [SOURCE - BBC].

Long Reads

In preparation for Trump’s first day in office, this long Bloomberg piece from November on his day-one plans is worth rereading. The debate has evolved within the GOP as the realization of what some of these issues mean — Trumplflation, anyone? — but there’s no indication that the incoming administration is planning to deviate from their pre-election pledges to start with.

Have a great weekend. I’ll see you again on Monday with a truncated SITREP as we’ll be observing the MLK break.

Carpe tomorrow!