Good morning.

A quick housekeeping note: I will be out of the office next week, so the SITREPs won’t contain the latest news summaries, just the regional roundups.

🇱🇧 Lebanon Begins Disarming Palestinian Camps

Lebanon launched a plan to disarm Palestinian groups in refugee camps, starting with weapons handovers from Burj al-Barajneh camp in Beirut as part of a wider disarmament campaign expected across all camps nationwide. The initiative follows Lebanon's commitment under the US-backed Israel-Hezbollah truce requiring only six state security forces to hold weapons, with the government tasked to consolidate all arms under state authority by year's end. The decision emerged from a May meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, marking the most serious effort in years to curb weapons in the 12 refugee camps that have largely operated outside state jurisdiction since Palestinian groups established armed presence following the 1948 displacement of 750,000 Palestinians. More - Al Jazeera

🇺🇦 Russia Launches Heaviest Bombardment in Weeks

Russia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments in weeks, killing one person in Lviv and wounding 15 others in an attack on a US electronics firm in Transcarpathia near the Hungarian border. The overnight barrage hit western regions far from front lines using hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles, with Ukraine's air force intercepting 577 of 614 total projectiles fired. The massive strike came as diplomatic efforts intensify, with Zelensky saying he's ready to meet Putin "in neutral Europe" - suggesting Switzerland or Austria - while expressing reluctance about Budapest due to Hungarian PM Orban's Moscow ties, as Trump suggested the leaders might meet "without me" after his Alaska summit with Putin and White House talks with European leaders. More - BBC

🇪🇺 EU-US Detail Trade Deal Next Steps

The US and EU formalized plans for their trade pact with specific benchmarks for European tariff reductions, including potential auto tariff cuts to 15% from 27.5% within weeks once the EU introduces legislation to eliminate its own tariffs on US industrial goods. The deal includes US commitments to lower tariffs on European aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while opening prospects for discounted steel and aluminum rates under a quota system. The EU pledged to buy at least $40 billion in US AI chips and increase defense equipment procurement, while providing preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products including tree nuts, dairy, and pork, though European wines and spirits didn't secure lower rates in the agreement. More - Bloomberg

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel Approves Major West Bank To “Erase” The Palestinian State

Israel gave final approval for the controversial E1 settlement project east of Jerusalem that would effectively cut the West Bank in two, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declaring it another "nail in the coffin" of Palestinian statehood hopes. The plan includes 3,500 apartments abutting the existing Maale Adumim settlement in one of the last geographical links between major Palestinian cities Ramallah and Bethlehem, forcing Palestinians to take wide detours through multiple checkpoints. Peace Now warned the settlement "has no purpose other than to sabotage a political solution" as Smotrich, granted Cabinet-level authority over settlement policies, vowed to double the West Bank's 700,000 settler population while construction could begin within a year if the process moves quickly. More - France 24

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇿🇲 Zambia

Regional News Summary

In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), violence and human rights abuses have surged, particularly in the eastern regions. Armed factions, including M23 rebels, have committed egregious acts against civilians, with reports indicating that 140 civilians were killed in July alone, despite ongoing peace negotiations. Additionally, Islamic State-backed rebels have been implicated in a brutal attack that left at least 52 people dead in eastern Congo. The United Nations has raised alarms over a sharp increase in sexual violence in conflict zones, underscoring the dire humanitarian situation in the region [SOURCE - BBC].

Despite these challenges, peace talks between the DRC government and M23 rebels continue, albeit with difficulties. A recent deadline for a peace deal was missed, prompting regional leaders to convene in Madagascar to address security issues in the DRC [SOURCE - France 24]. The international community, including the United States, has shown interest in facilitating these discussions, particularly following a Trump-backed peace deal that has drawn attention to the ongoing violence [SOURCE - Washington Post].

In Nigeria, security forces have made notable progress in combating terrorism, with the arrest of leaders from a high-profile terror group. [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News]. Furthermore, a tragic boat accident in northwestern Nigeria has left over 40 people missing, highlighting the urgent need for improved safety measures on the country's waterways [SOURCE - India Today].

Meanwhile, in Sudan, humanitarian crises persist as violence continues to displace populations. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have reportedly shelled a famine-hit camp in Darfur, resulting in multiple casualties [SOURCE - India Today]. In South Sudan, exiles released from prison face an uncertain future amid ongoing conflict and human rights concerns [SOURCE - AP News].

On the economic front, South Africa's Minister of Water and Sanitation announced a significant $10 billion funding for African water projects, aiming to enhance water security across the continent [SOURCE - Citizen]. Additionally, the government is set to launch a new state-operated e-hailing service, reflecting a shift towards innovative public transportation solutions [SOURCE - The South African].

In Zambia, the government has signed an investment partnership with Qatar to develop the energy, logistics, and finance sectors, which is expected to boost economic growth [SOURCE - Zambia: News Diggers!]. Furthermore, the Bank of Zambia has faced criticism for maintaining a high Monetary Policy Rate, which some economists argue is hindering economic growth [SOURCE - Zambia: News Diggers!].

Weekend Diversions

Google released an interesting paper looking at how much energy their models consume and therefore their environmental impact How much energy does Google’s AI use? We did the math | Google

And on the theme of efficiency, Nouse Research released a paper on the differences in tokens used to return responses, noting a big difference between closed and open models Measuring Thinking Efficiency in Reasoning Models: The Missing Benchmark | Nous Research

I’m enjoying all this kind of ‘peripheral’ research which is, in some ways, going to be more fundamental to business decisions on which model to use than model capabilities (as these all converge).

You’ll have heard the term vibe coding by now: this is what it looks like in real life. Why Did a $10 Billion Startup Let Me Vibe-Code for Them—and Why Did I Love It? | Wired

Businessweek has a long read on the global influence of The Gulf’s sovereign wealth funds The ‘Mega Forces’ Spreading Middle East Wealth Across the Globe | Bloomberg

Have a great weekend!

Carpe tomorrow!