Good morning.

🇵🇸 Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation

Israel's security cabinet approved Prime Minister Netanyahu's plan for military occupation of Gaza City, marking a major escalation that will force tens of thousands of starving residents to evacuate by October 7. An Israeli official said the operation involves displacing "all Palestinian civilians from Gaza City to the central camps" while imposing a siege on Hamas militants and launching a ground offensive. UK Prime Minister Starmer called the plan "wrong," saying it "will only bring more bloodshed," while Hamas accused Netanyahu of abandoning hostages to serve his "personal interests and extremist ideological agenda" as nearly 200 Palestinians have died from starvation in the famine-stricken territory. More - Al Jazeera

🇪🇺 Europe Seeks Rare Earth Independence

Europe is expanding rare earth metal production to reduce dependence on China, which controls 70% of mining and 90% of refining, led by Belgium's Solvay expanding its La Rochelle plant - one of only two processing facilities in Europe. The French facility aims to provide 30% of Europe's rare earth needs by 2030 through recycling, supported by €20 million in French government tax credits as part of the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act targeting supply chain diversification. CEO Philippe Kehren says customers must commit to buying European rare earths at higher prices to make the expansion viable, as Western firms need more government support to compete with Chinese rivals who have been more willing to handle radioactive pollution from processing. More - BBC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia

Regional News Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is grappling with significant challenges in its critical minerals sector, exacerbated by tariffs imposed by the United States. Critics argue that these backdoor tariffs, enforced under the Trump administration, are obstructing the flow of essential minerals from the DRC, severely impacting the local economy. As global competition for these critical resources intensifies, the DRC's capacity to extract and export minerals is vital for its economic development. Calls for Washington to prioritize transparency and sanctions in Congolese mineral deals have emerged, emphasizing the need for responsible and sustainable practices in the industry [SOURCE - Forbes].

In Algeria, a regional diplomatic overture by Morocco's King Mohammed VI aims to prevent geopolitical conflicts from spilling into North Africa. This initiative is seen as a crucial step towards maintaining stability in the region. Concurrently, Algeria, as a member of OPEC+, has agreed to increase oil production significantly, despite facing new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on numerous countries, including Algeria. This dual challenge of boosting production while navigating tariffs poses a complex dilemma for the Algerian economy [SOURCE - Times of India].

In South Africa, the impact of U.S. trade tariffs is prompting the government to seek new markets to mitigate economic damage. The country is racing to finalize a rescue package while simultaneously exploring trade opportunities within Africa and beyond. This situation has led to a strengthening of ties with China, as South Africa looks to bolster its largest trading partner amidst the tariff fallout [SOURCE - TechCentral].

Meanwhile, Kenya is making strides in public health with a groundbreaking treatment for malaria in infants, a significant advancement in the fight against this prevalent disease. Additionally, the Kenyan government has canceled a tax on women, signaling a commitment to women's economic empowerment and recognizing their contributions to the economy [SOURCE - The Conversation].

In Nigeria, the security situation remains dire, with armed groups continuing to perpetrate kidnappings and violence. Recent reports indicate that over 60 individuals were kidnapped in northwest Nigeria, highlighting the ongoing challenges the country faces in maintaining law and order. Compounding these issues, the United Nations plans to close 150 clinics due to aid cuts, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in a nation already struggling with food insecurity and healthcare access [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post].

As the humanitarian crisis deepens in Sudan, millions are in urgent need of assistance, prompting international calls for support. In a related development, China is set to dispatch a new batch of UN peacekeepers to South Sudan, aiming to bolster stability in the region [SOURCE - UN Women].

Weekend Diversions

Bloomberg takes a look at how relations between the USA and India went sour over a period of weeks leading up to the imposition of some of Trump’s harshest tariffs last week, reinforcing the point that massing the US President’s ego is a critical skill for foreign leaders. Tense Trump-Modi Call Helped Unravel Decades of US Policy | Bloomberg

It was a big week in AI with OpenAI releasing an open source model - gpt-oss - and GPT5. There is a lot of hype and excitement over both, but the big advancement with GPT-5 is that there are essentially multiple modes within the same model, and GPT-5 selects the right tool for the job. This does away with the need for the user to toggle between different models depending on the task: now the AI does that for you, which should make things easier and more efficient. Ethan Mollick has a good overview of GPT-5 here GPT-5: It Just Does Stuff.

The gpt-oss release notes are here but take the ‘can run on a laptop’ claim with a pinch of salt as I tried this on both an M2 chipped Mac and an NVIDIA Orin Nano and neither were responsive. One friend noted he was getting a ‘blazing one token per minute…’. Nonetheless, you can try the model in environments like Groq and having a SOTA open source US model is a pretty big deal.

(And if you’re curious about the difference between open and closed source models, CB Insights has a thoughful piece here)

Meanwhile, in space… Why the US Is Racing to Build a Nuclear Reactor on the Moon, Becky Ferreira | Wired

Have a great weekend!

Carpe tomorrow!