Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect, US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites

Author

Andrew Sheves
August 01, 2025 • Time to Enlightenment...7 minutes

Good morning and happy August.

🇺🇸 Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect

Trump's tariff blitz pushed average US levies to 15% - roughly six times higher than a year ago and the steepest since the 1930s - with rates ranging from 10% baseline to punitive levels like 39% for Switzerland. Bloomberg Economics estimates the tariff hike could cut US GDP by 1.8% and lift core prices by 1.1% over two to three years, creating a "serious demand shock" for the global economy according to former IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan. Markets responded more mutedly than April's initial shock, but economists warn greater pass-through to US consumers lies ahead as the "universal" nature of tariffs makes it harder for exporters to absorb costs. More - Bloomberg

Bloomberg also has a comprehensive list of country and sector tariff rates here.

🇵🇸 US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites

US special envoy Steve Witkoff is visiting Gaza aid distribution sites with Ambassador Mike Huckabee to assess the "dire situation" as pressure mounts on Israel over its starvation policy that has killed over 1,000 Palestinians seeking food since May. Human Rights Watch called Israel's use of starvation a "war crime," saying Israeli forces are "deliberately starving Palestinian civilians" and "gunning them down almost every day" at US-backed distribution sites. The visit comes as Gaza health officials reported 154 confirmed deaths from "famine and malnutrition," including 89 children, while UN experts say "famine is now unfolding." Notably, Trump has contradicted Netanyahu’s denial of food shortages, stating that Gaza faces "real starvation." More - Al Jazeera

Observation

There’s no reading of the Geneva Conventions or any associated laws of war that permit what’s happening in Gaza. Militaries, particularly occupying powers, have extensive obligations to provide food, water, sanitation and medical support to the local population. (See the US DoD’s Law of War Manual for an example of the guidance.) It’s one of the first things you are taught when you join the military and something you review and retrain on regularly.

However, Israeli officials have been stating publicly for months that restrictions on food and aid into Gaza are a deliberate strategy of collective punishment. What is happening is well understood and no accident.

This is clearly horrific for the people of Gaza, and even if restrictions were lifted tomorrow, the long-term effects of malnutrition are generational. But the IDF’s scorched-earth policy in Gaza will also have long-term damaging effects on Israel. More and more countries are condening its policies in Gaza and even tranches of the US right-wing MAGA movement - a group that should be reliably supportive of Israel no matter what it does - are turning against Israel. There are no winners here but this eroding international support, particularly in the US, should be giving the Israeli leaders pause for thought.

I keep commentary to a minimum in these SITREPS as the intent is to provide an facts-based, objective view of events that can be applied to your own decision-making. However, there are occassions where simply reporting on events is insufficient.

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇿🇲 Zambia

Regional News Summary

Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila is currently facing serious legal challenges as he stands trial in absentia for treason. The trial, taking place in Kinshasa, highlights ongoing political tensions in the country as Kabila's absence raises questions about accountability and justice in a nation still grappling with the aftermath of his presidency [SOURCE - BBC].

Meanwhile, the Democratic Republic of Congo has signed a peace deal with Rwanda, which is expected to foster regional stability and open new business opportunities for U.S. companies. This agreement is seen as a significant step towards improving economic relations and addressing long-standing tensions between the two nations [SOURCE - BBC].

Islamic State-backed rebels have attacked a Catholic church in eastern Congo, resulting in the deaths of at least 21 people, including women and children. Eyewitnesses described the assault as "mafia-style," with the attackers employing machetes and firearms against worshippers. This incident is part of a disturbing trend of extremist violence in the region, which has seen a marked increase in attacks against Christian communities [SOURCE - SABC News].

In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa is navigating a complex diplomatic landscape as a U.S. bill proposing sanctions against the country progresses through Congress. This situation underscores the delicate balance South Africa must maintain in its international relations, particularly as it seeks to strengthen ties with Russia amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions [SOURCE - SABC News].

Economically, South Africa has secured significant loans aimed at revitalizing its energy sector, including an R8.4 billion loan and a $475 million loan from the African Development Bank. These funds are crucial as the country grapples with energy shortages and seeks to improve its infrastructure [SOURCE - The Citizen].

Weekend Diversions

This piece in Bloomberg highlights how AI agents in software development can be vulnerable to the equivalent of social engineering, where hackers insert malign prompts into seemingly benign code updates. So while the code itself is safe, the hidden instructions to the coding agent cause it to behave maliciously. Amazon’s AI Coding Revealed a Dirty Little Secret | Parmy Olsen in Bloomberg

Stanford is running a multi-year AI survey, which is a monster 400+ pages, but also more palatable, intermittent surveys on how people are using AI at work. The latest report is here: Stanford AI Worker Survey

This Al Jazeera article starts on the island’s military drone program but includes a lot of additional background on any potential conflict. In the shadow of China, Taiwan is building a drone army to stop an invasion | Al Jazeera

Have a great weekend!

Carpe tomorrow!