Good morning.

No headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs.

Our mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it.

(*That’s the British half of me speaking. The American half of me wants you to know that we are exceptionally good at what we do. 😊)

So although I enjoy putting these daily reports together each morning, a general SITREP isn’t a great example of a tailored, individualized report. In fact, it’s the opposite of what we are trying to do.

Therefore, starting next week, I’ll be making some changes to how and when I share these via the newsletter and news page. At the same time, I’m also going to open up the self-serve aspect of the platform which allows you to create your own tailored SITREP just covering the countries and regions that affect you.

That way, you’ll be getting the news you need, when you need it, rather than having to wait for that week’s regional SITREP.

I’m hoping these changes strike a better balance between keeping you informed and the Decis mission but I’d love to hear what you think so please drop me a note: what would work well for you?

Key Metrics

WTI is $72.73 (Down)

Low |-------- < -----------| High

Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

Low |--------- > ----------| High

EuroDollar is $1.05 (Down)

Low |------- < ------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |---------- < > ---------| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 20 2025 21:15 UTC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia

Regional News Summary

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently engulfed in a deepening conflict as the M23 rebel group, allegedly backed by Rwanda, has made significant territorial gains, including the capture of Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. This escalation has led to widespread panic and displacement among civilians, with reports of looting and violence as the rebels continue to advance. The United Nations has raised alarms about the humanitarian crisis, warning of potential "balkanization" of the region if the violence persists [SOURCE - BBC]. The situation has prompted international concern, with the African Union emphasizing the need for peace and stability in its upcoming summit discussions [SOURCE - SABC].

In the broader context of regional security, Uganda's military chief has threatened intervention against the M23, further complicating the already tense relations in the Great Lakes region [SOURCE - News18]. The international community is urged to take decisive action to address the humanitarian needs and restore order, as the conflict threatens to spill over into neighboring countries.

Meanwhile, Algeria is navigating its own complex geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding Western Sahara. The French foreign minister's visit to support Moroccan sovereignty has heightened tensions with Algeria, which has historically opposed such moves [SOURCE - France24]. In a related development, Algeria has solidified its military partnership with Russia, becoming the launch export customer for the Su-57 fighter jet, reflecting its ongoing investment in defense amidst regional uncertainties [SOURCE - The National Interest].

In South Africa, the economic landscape is under pressure from U.S. tariffs on agricultural products, which threaten to stifle growth and increase inflation [SOURCE - The Citizen]. Despite these challenges, the South African rand has shown resilience, indicating a potentially robust economic foundation [SOURCE - The Citizen]. Additionally, the country is witnessing significant investment in technological innovation, with electric vehicle manufacturer BYD making substantial commitments to the local market [SOURCE - TechCentral].

In Nigeria, lawmakers have approved $200 million to offset cuts in U.S. health aid, a critical move to sustain the country's healthcare system amidst ongoing struggles with corruption and economic instability [SOURCE - Times of India]. The Sahel region, where Nigeria is located, continues to face security threats from extremist groups, raising concerns about regional stability [SOURCE - The Washington Post].

In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia and Somalia have initiated technical talks aimed at resolving long-standing disputes, a crucial step towards regional stability [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press]. Meanwhile, Russia's diplomatic efforts in Ethiopia, including the provision of medical aid, underscore its growing influence in the region [SOURCE - TASS].

Long Reads (and Watches)

There’s lots of discussion of how Ukraine’s minerals are becoming an increasing part of the peace deal and this piece on ‘mineral wars’ from the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) caught my eye.

I’ll also be catching up on the AI Engineer summit from New York. The main sessions are all livestreamed and available on YouTube, including this one at noon on Saturday which I hear is pretty good.

Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!