Good morning.

It’s a slimmed-down SITREP today from the woods of North Carolina so just the regional summary and one story of note. Normal service will resume on Monday.

US China Trade Deal Finalized

The US and China signed a trade understanding two days ago that codifies terms from Geneva talks, with China committing to deliver rare earth materials in exchange for US lifting export restrictions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal removes US "countermeasures" on ethane, chip software and jet engines once rare earth shipments begin flowing. Trump plans to finalize trade deals with 10 major partners by his July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs, sorting countries into "proper buckets" based on negotiation outcomes. More - Bloomberg

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe

Regional News Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is grappling with an alarming surge in violence, particularly against children in conflict zones. A recent UN report highlighted that in 2024, there were 41,370 grave violations against children in armed conflicts, exacerbated by the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza. This escalation has resulted in a record-high number of refugees, while global aid funding has simultaneously declined. Notably, Heineken has had to shut down its breweries in the DRC due to armed group takeovers, illustrating the dire economic impact of the violence [SOURCE - TASS] [SOURCE - RFI] [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In a bid to address the escalating conflict, diplomatic efforts are underway. The United States, under the leadership of President Trump and Senator Rubio, has played a pivotal role in brokering a peace treaty between the DRC and Rwanda, a move that has garnered international attention. Pakistan has even nominated Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his involvement in this peace initiative [SOURCE - Japan Times] [SOURCE - New York Post] [SOURCE - DNA India].

Amidst these challenges, the DRC has extended its ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months, a decision that could have significant ramifications for the global tech industry, which heavily relies on this mineral [SOURCE - SABC News]. In a more positive development, the Algorand Foundation has partnered with Paycode to enhance financial inclusion through blockchain technology in the DRC, indicating a potential shift towards innovative economic solutions [SOURCE - Manila Times].

In Algeria, a significant advancement in the energy sector has occurred with the awarding of an exploration license to a joint venture between TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy. This development is expected to bolster Algeria's oil and gas production, which is vital for its economy [SOURCE - Rigzone].

However, regional tensions persist, particularly due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, which has raised concerns about stability in the region. Experts warn that this conflict could have catastrophic implications, including for energy markets, particularly affecting Algeria [SOURCE - Global Research]. Furthermore, European powers have faced criticism for their perceived complicity in the US-Israeli war against Iran, which may further exacerbate regional tensions [SOURCE - World Socialist Web Site].

In South Africa, the economic landscape is witnessing both challenges and opportunities. The country has secured a substantial $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank aimed at infrastructure upgrades and transitioning to green energy, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [SOURCE - ABC News]. However, motorists are bracing for a fuel price hike, attributed to potential disruptions in global fuel supplies due to the Iran conflict [SOURCE - The South African].

In Kenya, the situation remains dire as the country grapples with police brutality, economic hardships, and violent protests that have resulted in multiple fatalities and injuries. The protests, marking the anniversary of a deadly crackdown, are fueled by rising living costs and ongoing police violence [SOURCE - Times of India]. The humanitarian crisis is further exacerbated by cuts in US aid, leading to reduced food rations in refugee camps [SOURCE - PBS].

In Nigeria, violence continues to plague the nation, with a recent suicide bombing in the northeast claiming the lives of at least ten individuals. This incident underscores the resurgence of violence linked to the Boko Haram conflict [SOURCE - ABC News]. Amidst this turmoil, Nigeria has signed a $1 billion agreement with Brazil to enhance agricultural productivity, a crucial step towards improving food security in the country [SOURCE - Times Live].

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is also escalating, with the UN warning of deteriorating conditions as violence spreads across the country. Disturbingly, children have been killed in attacks on hospitals, highlighting the urgent need for international intervention to protect civilians [SOURCE - SwissInfo].

Have a great weekend!

Carpe tomorrow!