⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court's charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [More - BBC]

🇺🇦 Any peace deal in Ukraine might be contingent on an agreement to pay back US support in the form of rare earth minerals, according to reports of what President Trump thinks a deal should include. This would significantly diversify the US’s supply of these critical minerals but would significantly hamper Ukraine’s reconstruction. Any deal where Ukraine had to pay back US contributions to the war — instead of benefitting from US reconstruction aid — would place significant additional burdens on the EU. [More - AlJazeera]

Self-Serve {API Access} Opens Up Monday

APIs (application programming interface) used to confuse and terrify me, but I’ve come to realize that there are no bad APIs, only bad documentation and confusing connections.

This week, I’ve spent a lot of time simplifying the Decis API so it’s not just a developer-level access point but a much more user-friendly tool.

Now, in addition to being something a developer can use in their code, the API can be integrated with Excel or GoogleSheets. Or maybe added to an RSS feed.

Set up is a snap, and all the documentation, code snippets, and guides are in one place, so you can have a live country data feed inside your system in just a few minutes.

But the technology isn’t important: the outcome is.

Now, you can have the Decis country data fed directly into the tools you use on your desktop so your country risk assessments or FOREX trading portfolio is always up to date. And my aim is that you can do it without being technical at all - in the case of Google Sheets, it only takes half a dozen clicks to set up

(Don’t worry, devs, there’s still a GitHub page and manual setup if you prefer playing on hard mode.)

So if you fancy having dynamic country stability data fed directly into your day-to-day tools, you’ll love what I’m sharing on Monday.

(And with multiple access tiers, you’ll even love the pricing.)

Key Metrics

WTI is $73.52 (Down)

Low |--------- < ----------| High

Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

Low |--------- > ----------| High

EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

Low |---- < ---------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |---------- < > ---------| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 06 2025 21:16 UTC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania

Regional News Summary

The ongoing crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has escalated dramatically, with violent clashes between government forces and the M23 rebel group, which is reportedly backed by Rwanda. Recent reports indicate that over 900 people have died in the fighting around the city of Goma, raising alarms about regional stability and humanitarian conditions. The international community has urged all parties to engage in dialogue to resolve the conflict, but skepticism remains regarding the sincerity of the M23's declared ceasefire for humanitarian reasons ahead of a regional summit aimed at finding a lasting solution [SOURCE - ABC News].

The G7 nations have condemned the Rwanda-backed offensive in East Congo, emphasizing the need for accountability and support for UN peacekeeping efforts in the region. The conflict has also resulted in tragic losses, including South African soldiers, highlighting the urgent need for a resolution [SOURCE - MercoPress].

As the DRC grapples with internal strife, neighboring countries are expressing concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict. The President of Burundi has called for caution to avoid escalation, while the DRC has sought an emergency UN session to address the crisis [SOURCE - RT].

In South Africa, the unity government has passed the controversial Expropriation without Compensation law, allowing the state to seize land from white farmers without compensation. This move has drawn international criticism, including from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to cut off funding to South Africa [SOURCE - The Hindu]. Despite the backlash, South African officials maintain that they are committed to restructuring the property market, which has raised concerns about human rights and the rule of law in the country [SOURCE - RNZ].

Kenya is also facing significant challenges, particularly regarding the protection of women from violence, as femicide and misogyny continue to rise. A recent report has highlighted the government's failure to safeguard women's rights, prompting calls for international intervention [SOURCE - Foreign Policy]. Additionally, the Kenyan Central Bank has announced a rate cut to stimulate economic growth, but the country’s military personnel deployed in the DRC have raised concerns about their safety amid ongoing conflict [SOURCE - The Conversation].

In Nigeria, the government is taking steps to boost its oil production to 2.7 million barrels per day by 2027, aiming to stabilize its finances and increase revenue [SOURCE - Financial Post]. The country is also emerging as a key hub for the European Union's €150 billion infrastructure push, which is expected to drive growth across various sectors [SOURCE - Rio Times].

Meanwhile, Sudan is grappling with escalating violence, particularly from Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary fighters, which has resulted in significant civilian casualties. The United Nations has condemned the attacks on civilians, calling for accountability and humanitarian assistance [SOURCE - Free Press Journal]. As Sudanese forces continue to make gains against the RSF, thousands of displaced people are beginning to return home, though the situation remains precarious [SOURCE - Al Monitor].

Long Reads

⚾️ It’s been a heavy week and I haven’t read much outside of the news and don’t even have much in my reading list to share.

However, I am re-reading Michael Lewis’s Moneyball** as the idea of a single critical metric that is an outsized indicator still intrigues me. For the Oakland As in the book, it was on-base percentage but cost of containers, oil or other commodities still feels like something I need to delve into more.

Plus, it’s almost baseball season. Go Mets!

Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!