Good morning.

Happy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day.

🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [More - Bloomberg]

🇩🇪 A vehicle rammed a crowd in Munich on Thursday morning, injuring 30. The motive is unclear but the driver has been identified as originally from Afghanistan which will further inflame the anti-immigrant sentiment currently running high in Germany. Immigration is a key issue in the upcoming elections, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has gained support with its stringent anti-immigrant message, particularly following attacks at a Christmas market and a stabbing in Bavaria, both conducted by immigrants. However, Germany’s more mainstream politicians are also promising to tighten rules on asylum and even Friedrich Merz — the center-right forerunner to be next chancellor — has promised to close Germany’s borders. [More - BBC]

OK, this is still very much an experiment, but audio is on my mind right now, and the podcast version of the briefings is way too good not to share. I took all of this week’s SITREPS and fed them into Google’s Notebook LM with a little direction on how to structure the ‘podcast’ and the results are pretty impressive.

Please listen to the caveats at the start - this is completely AI-generated

They get a bit wobbly with some of the analysis concerning Syria but most of this is spot on. (And again, all AI… 😻)

I might make these a permanent feature - what do you think?

Key Metrics

WTI is $72.73 (Down)

Low |-------- < -----------| High

Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

Low |--------- > ----------| High

EuroDollar is $1.05 (Down)

Low |------ < -------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |---------- < > ---------| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 13 2025 21:15 UTC

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania

Africa News Summary

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), regional security tensions are escalating as the M23 rebel group advances towards Bukavu, raising alarms that the conflict could spill over into neighboring countries. The UN has warned of the potential for broader geopolitical implications, with Rwandan officials suggesting that the situation could become a new flashpoint for international security, particularly between Western powers and Russia [SOURCE - ABC]. President Saikh Bukhari of Uzbekistan has called for urgent international intervention, but diplomatic discussions remain stalled.

Meanwhile, India is strengthening its defense ties with African nations, as Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held bilateral meetings with his counterparts from Tanzania, Zambia, and Algeria. This engagement reflects India's growing interest in defense and security cooperation across the continent [SOURCE - Economic Times].

In North Africa, China's Navy is enhancing its presence through its 'Peace Ark' diplomacy, aimed at providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. This initiative is part of China's broader strategy to establish itself as a key player in the region's security architecture, particularly in light of ongoing tensions and conflicts [SOURCE - The Diplomat].

The humanitarian situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate, with intense fighting between rival paramilitary groups resulting in significant casualties and displacement. The UN reports at least 80 deaths in recent clashes, raising concerns about a potential humanitarian crisis [SOURCE - News18]. The Sudanese army is reportedly advancing to recapture Khartoum, which could represent a pivotal moment in the ongoing civil war. However, the US has halted aid to Sudan, complicating international efforts to alleviate the humanitarian crisis [SOURCE - Daily Times].

In Southern Africa, South Africa is navigating tensions with the United States following President Trump's decision to freeze aid over controversial land expropriation laws. This move has sparked outrage from South African leaders, who assert their sovereignty in land reform discussions [SOURCE - BBC]. The situation has also drawn mixed reactions from neighboring countries, highlighting the complexities of regional politics.

The economic landscape in Nigeria is showing signs of growth, particularly in the music industry, with artist Tems planning to bring her tour to Johannesburg, signaling a vibrant cultural exchange [SOURCE - Citizen]. Additionally, international investments are boosting Nigeria's industrial growth, as Singapore-based Tolaram welcomes funding from the International Finance Corporation for its Lagos Free Zone project [SOURCE - Manila Times].

As the continent grapples with these multifaceted challenges, the humanitarian crises in Somalia and Western Sahara are exacerbated by US aid freezes, leaving millions vulnerable and in need of assistance. NGOs in Somalia have been forced to suspend operations, highlighting the dire consequences of funding cuts on internally displaced populations [SOURCE - Times of India]. In Western Sahara, the aid freeze has similarly disrupted humanitarian efforts, raising concerns about stability in the region [SOURCE - Reuters].

Long Reads

I confess to abandoning Everything Under the Heavens as it was overly chewy and — for me anyway — hard to follow. That said, China is still top of mind, and somewhere I want to pay more attention to, hence a China-centric theme to this weekend’s reading.

🇨🇳 + 🇷🇺 This piece in 9dashline looks at what China’s preferred outcome might look like in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as providing more general context on the relationship between Moscow and Beijing.

🇨🇳 + 🇺🇸 ‘Rightsizing the China Threat’ in Foreign Affairs looks at the US-China relationship.

🇨🇳 + 🤖 This blog from DataCamp delves into the AI distillation process, which is at the heart of the success of the Deepseek model. (OK, this is a stretch reference to China but what can I say: I’m a sucker for this kind of thing…  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ )

Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!