Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.

For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.

TikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little.

Trump probably knows deep down that there are some economic consequences for US consumers but why not slap on some tariffs for a week or two to show Xi he means business (and keep his campaign promise)?

So the lack of action in these two areas is a signal of sorts.

Then, when asked about a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump indicated that China would be part of any deal and that he and Xi had discussed Ukraine on a call last Friday.

Taken together, you have a trifecta of issues, each of which could be addressed separately, but taken together, have much more consequence.

TikTok is essentially inconsequential but a great bargaining chip and something you can make a lot of noise about.

But maybe the quieter, meaningful discussions will be over trade where tariffs are a means to an end: whittling down the trade deficit. Meanwhile, involving Beijing in resolving Ukraine would be a mark of respect towards China while also making pressuring Russia much easier for Trump.

So I wonder if Trump has his sights set on a Big Beautiful Deal with China as not only a win on the individual issues but a Nixon-to-China level of statesmanship.

Such a deal would be a win all round except for the big issue we’ve omitted so far: Taiwan.

So while Taiwan is still the world’s leading producer of silicon, the more diversification there is, the less important it becomes. And despite all the GOP complaints about the US CHIPS act in public, they’d probably agree that building fabs in the US is a great job creator, so that will survive the cuts. So in some minds, Taiwan will already be less important and not worth going to war over. Plus recent defense budget cuts in Taipei will further reinforce the idea for many in the US that Taiwan is taking advantage of America.

Taken together, this raises the potential for America’s ‘strategic ambiguity’ over Taiwan may become more like ‘strategic ambivalence’. Maybe there’s a ‘do whatever the hell you want’ policy.

So, while my sense is that there might be a grand deal in the making, Taiwan might be more of a bargaining chip than a strategic imperative for Trump in any talks. Whatever the case, Taiwan’s importance seems diminished and this isn’t the administration that will go to the mat for an island halfway around the world.

This isn’t based on some high-level source or special insights into either China or the mind of Donald Trump. Rather, it’s that in a week of very public activity — executive orders, ICE raids, and terminations — what didn’t happen seems just as significant.

(In a world where noise beats signal hand-down, I hesitate to share commentary like this. But there are times when I hope these observations can shine some light on what events to help you prepare. Please let me know if these are helpful.)

On to the regional ratings.

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇿🇲 Zambia

Regional News Summary

A humanitarian crisis is escalating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where over 230,000 people have fled their homes in Eastern DRC since the beginning of the year due to ongoing violence, according to the United Nations. This alarming exodus underscores the dire situation in one of Africa's most crisis-prone nations [SOURCE - International Business Times].

In a bid to stabilize the region, rumors of a peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda have emerged, with reports suggesting that the United States has offered infrastructure incentives in exchange for cooperation. This development indicates that international actors are exploring aid packages as a means to quell regional instability [SOURCE - International Business Times].

Amidst these challenges, the tin mining sector in the DRC is experiencing a boom, with Alphamin announcing record production figures for FY2024 and expectations for continued growth in FY2025. This surge in mining activity could signal economic growth and increased foreign interest in the DRC's resources [SOURCE - Financial Post].

In South Africa, Amazon and Microsoft are expanding their operations, offering over 100 job openings to tap into the country's growing talent pool. This move highlights South Africa's potential as a significant player in the global tech industry, but it also raises concerns about the government's ability to manage the demands of a rapidly changing economy [SOURCE - Biz News].

However, the South African government faces significant governance challenges. President Cyril Ramaphosa's balancing act among rival factions risks tipping the country into chaos, exacerbated by the fragile nature of the unity government [SOURCE - The Citizen].

Health concerns are also on the rise, as air pollution is increasingly recognized as a major contributor to heart disease and high blood pressure in South Africa. This public health crisis has significant implications for the economy as a whole [SOURCE - The Conversation].

In Kenya, the government has deployed additional police officers to Haiti under a UN mission to combat gang violence, demonstrating its commitment to regional cooperation. However, the Kenyan police force has faced criticism for excessive violence, highlighting the need for systemic reforms [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

Meanwhile, Nigeria is grappling with a series of devastating tanker truck explosions that have claimed numerous lives, underscoring the dangers associated with fuel transportation in the country [SOURCE - NDTV]. In response to these tragedies, the Nigerian government is also planning to rebase its GDP and inflation data to improve the accuracy of economic indicators [SOURCE - Reuters].

In Sudan, the United States has imposed sanctions on the leader of the armed forces amid escalating violence and humanitarian concerns. The situation has been exacerbated by a cash crunch following the introduction of a new political banknote, raising fears of further economic instability [SOURCE - JURIST].

Long Reads

One article and a book are on my reading list this weekend.

Periods of change, turbulence and uncertainty are dangerous times so this Wired interview with the outgoing (technically outgone) head of CISA, the cybersecurity agency, seems like a useful reminder that we need to stay focused.

I’m working my way through Everything Under the Heavens, a history of China by Howard French (although it’s unlikely this is just a single weekend’s reading).

Have a great weekend.

Carpe tomorrow!