Friday Stability Roundup and a Deep Dive

What Does Trump 2.0 Mean Internationally?

Good morning.

Monday through Thursday, we cover each region with the stability situation and regional news but Fridays are when we take a deeper dive into an issue and give you a rundown of the baseline stability ratings for each country.

Today's deep dive is a look at what the second Trump term means on a geopolitical basis.

Two quick pieces of news worth mentioning first.

  • On Thursday, the GOP officially retained control of the House, meaning Republicans will hold the Presidency, Senate, and House and have a right-leaning Supreme Court [SOURCE - Politico].

  • A Pentagon official warned that the Houthis have access to increasingly sophisticated weaponry via Iran [SOURCE - Axios]. Comment - I've written before that there is no incentive for the Houthis to stop interdicting Res Sea shipping traffic but access to more sophisticated missiles and their increasing drone capability is making a previously domestic group a much more influential regional actor.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Crude Futures (WTI)

$68.42

๐Ÿ’ต USD:EUR

$1.057 (Price of 1EUR in USD)

โ‚ฟ Bitcoin

$89,734.19

As at Nov 15, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

President Trump 2.0 Comes into Focus: So What?

In 2016, Peter Thiel complained that the press took Trump 'literally but not seriously, whereas his [Trump's] voters took him seriously but not literally'. [CNBC] 

Fast forward to 2024, and better advice seems to be to take Trump both seriously and literally: what nominee Trump said on the campaign trail seems to be what President-elect Trump is putting into action. Picking Stephen Millar as Deputy Chief of Staff and Tom Homan as Border czar lines up 100% with the hard line he promised to take on immigration.

So, this analysis takes President-elect Trump seriously and literally, reviewing what he's said he will do in his second term.

The silver lining here is that this reduces the possibility of surprises and allows some time to prepare for what a second Trump term might mean.

So, what can we expect at the geopolitical level? Here are five scenarios to prepare for.

The US will impose tariffs on a wide range of imports

Trump has floated a 60% tariff on goods from China and 10% on all other imports. This complicates supply lines and increases the cost of goods for US consumers and manufacturers.

  • So what? Trump may be able to settle more favorable terms for US trade on the basis of these tariffs but, to begin with, the pain is likely to be felt by the US consumer and seen in rising US inflation. Retaliatory tariffs are also a possibility, complicating things for US exporters.

Ukraine will be forced to trade land for peace 

This does not mean that Vladimir Putin will get everything he wants but Ukraine will be forced to make a bad deal. And, if Zelensky refuses to make a deal, the US will cut off aid, meaning Ukraine would be left even more vulnerable, likely losing more territory in the process. This will also be seen by Putin as his second successful land grab after Crimea in 2016, meaning a near-term Russian incursion into Estonia or Poland becomes much more likely. Thatโ€™s unless Trump is willing to inflict real pain on Moscow as part of the Ukraine deal which seems unlikely.

  • So What? This won't affect many Americans or US businesses directly, and an end to conflict in Ukraine would ease pressure on grain and natural gas prices, but it will leave Europe weaker and much less trusting of the US.

The Middle East will become more unstable

Trump has encouraged Israel to 'finish the job' in Gaza, supports increased settlement building in the West Bank, and would likely be supportive of a partial reoccupation of Gaza. Meanwhile, Iran will come under increased pressure up to and possibly including military strikes on its nuclear program*. In addition to the potential for a wider regional conflict, this places enormous strain on regional leaders who are expected to ally with an increasingly unpopular US.

  • So What? Americans living and working in the Middle East and US businesses can expect increased hostility and the region will be a much less welcoming place, more akin to the early 2000s and the height of the Iraq war.

*Note recent reports are that Israel hit a nuclear facility as part of her retaliatory strike on Iran in late October [SOURCE - AXIOS]

Oil prices will whipsaw and US producers may come under increased pressure.

Tension in the Gulf drives up oil prices while a 'drill baby drill' policy puts more US inventory into an already oversupplied market, driving prices down. Most US producers need oil to remain around $50-60 per barrel to break even, meaning that increased production would hurt the US more than, say, Saudi, which has a production break even in the $10-15 range.

  • So What? Expect significant fluctuations in oil prices, but $100 barrels seem less likely, given the amount of US production that could be released. (Although with oil prices being so irrational, the best prediction is often  ยฏ\_(ใƒ„)_/ยฏ)

The final scenario is the most serious, albeit long-term, issue.

US influence declines

In an interview prior to the British election, the former head of MI6 noted that in his opinion, the Brexit vote made the UK irrelevant internationally.

"Since I've left office and I've travelled around Europe, I am profoundly depressed. Nobody mentions the UK. We've just made ourselves irrelevant. And this is extraordinary. At the beginning part of this century, we were the dominant force...[now] you just don't hear a discussion of us. And I think Brexit has marginalised us."

Sir Alex Younger, ITV Interview June 2024, [SOURCE - ITV]

Similarly, there is a very high chance that the US could be in a similar position after four more years of uncertainty caused by a second Trump administration.

Ambiguity over NATO's Article 5, the seeming abandonment of Ukraine, the potential politicization of the Federal Reserve and manipulation of the dollar, and a more mercurial, transactional foreign policy would leave many countries less willing to rely on the US. America First, easily becomes America alone.

  • So What? America won't become irrelevant but will become less relevant, be taken much less seriously, and be seen as unreliable. This change in perception and prestige throws up significant barriers for US firms -- and America as a whole -- internationally.

Thereโ€™s a raft of other issues that will arise from a second Trump term, particularly domestically, but these five seem most likely and are of particular geopolitical consequence.

The only silver lining is that President-elect Trump has been clear in what he plans to do, and there is some time to prepare.

On to the stability ratings.

Country Stability Ratings - Nov 14 24

Here are the complete stability ratings for all countries covered by Decis.

(Missing somewhere? Hit reply and let me know.)

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ซ Afghanistan is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Andorra is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด Angola is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Antigua and Barbuda is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ Bahrain is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฏ Benin is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡น Bhutan is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด Bolivia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ Burkina Faso is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ Burundi is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Cameroon is Weak

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African Republic is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ Chad is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Comoros is Weak

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ Cuba is Weak

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Djibouti is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Dominica is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican Republic is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ East Timor is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป El Salvador is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ถ Equatorial Guinea is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท Eritrea is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Eswatini is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡น Ethiopia is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Federated States of Micronesia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Grenada is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น Guatemala is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ณ Guinea is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ผ Guinea-Bissau is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡พ Guyana is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti is Critically Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ณ Honduras is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Kiribati is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ Kuwait is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Kyrgyzstan is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง Lebanon is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท Liberia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ Libya is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Liechtenstein is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Macedonia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Madagascar is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ญ Marshall Islands is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ท Mauritania is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Moldova is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡จ Monaco is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช Montenegro is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Namibia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ท Nauru is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Nicaragua is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช Niger is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ต North Korea is Critically Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ Oman is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ผ Palau is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฌ Papua New Guinea is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar is Stable

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Republic of the Congo is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ณ Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ Saint Lucia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡จ Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ธ Samoa is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น Sรฃo Tomรฉ and Prรญncipe is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง Solomon Islands is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด Somalia is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan is Critically Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Sudan is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท Suriname is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden is Weak

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Syria is Critically Unstable

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan is Stable

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฏ Tajikistan is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ Tanzania is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ The Bahamas is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฒ The Gambia is Stable

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ Togo is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ด Tonga is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡น Trinidad and Tobago is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ Turkmenistan is Weak

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ป Tuvalu is Stable

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda is Weak

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab Emirates is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom is Stable

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States Of America is Weak

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay is Stable

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡บ Vanuatu is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Venezuela is Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam is Stable

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ญ Western Sahara is Weak

๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช Yemen is Critically Unstable

๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia is Weak

๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ Zimbabwe is Weak

Final Factoid

Weโ€™ll see the last supermoon of the year this weekend when the Beaver Supermoon appears on Friday and Saturday nights. Read more 

The Beaver Moon is seen from the historic center on Nov. 28, 2023 in San Salvador, El Salvador. Photo: Getty Images

Have a great weekend and weโ€™ll see you again on Monday.

Carpe tomorrow!

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