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Monday SITREP: Global Ratings
US-China Talks Enter Second Day, Romania Reports Russian Drone Incursion, Pakistan Border Raids Kill 54
Andrew Sheves
September 15, 2025 • Time to Enlightenment...7 minutes
Good morning,
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 US-China Talks Enter Second Day
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for nearly six hours in Madrid Sunday, discussing TikTok's looming deadline, trade issues and national security concerns as diplomacy intensifies between the world's two largest economies. The talks aim to lay groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting as soon as October during South Korea's APEC summit, though veteran negotiator Wendy Cutler warned that "agreeing on deliverables for a possible Trump-Xi summit will not be easy" given China's growing confidence it holds the upper hand. China launched two new investigations targeting US semiconductor companies just before the talks, including an anti-dumping probe on American analog IC chips, shortly after the US added 23 more Chinese firms to its entity list restricting businesses deemed contrary to national security interests. More - Bloomberg
🇷🇴 Romania Reports Russian Drone Incursion
Romania became the second NATO country to report Russian drone incursions after F-16 jets detected an unmanned aircraft 20km from the Ukrainian border during Russian attacks on Danube infrastructure, though it didn't fly over populated areas or pose immediate danger. President Zelensky called the breach "an obvious expansion of the war by Russia," insisting Moscow "knows exactly where their drones are headed," while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned it as "yet another unacceptable breach of an EU member state's sovereignty." Poland responded by raising air defenses to highest readiness and beginning "preventative operations" with allied aviation, while the Czech Republic deployed three combat helicopters to Poland's eastern flank, as Trump said he was "ready" to impose tougher Russian sanctions if NATO countries meet conditions like stopping Russian oil purchases. More - BBC
🇵🇰 Pakistan Border Raids Kill 54
Pakistani security forces killed at least 35 Pakistan Taliban fighters in raids on three hideouts near the Afghan border, while losing 19 soldiers in fierce clashes across Bajaur, South Waziristan and Lower Dir districts in recent days. The Pakistan Taliban (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attacks as the military accused the group of using Afghan soil to stage operations and alleged Indian backing without evidence, while urging Kabul's Taliban government to "deny use of its soil for terrorist activities against Pakistan." The deadliest clash in months underscores Pakistan's struggle with resurgent armed groups that have become emboldened since the Afghan Taliban's 2021 takeover, with nearly 460 people killed this year in attacks by groups fighting the state, as residents report TTP graffiti appearing on buildings amid fears of the group's return to controlling territory it once held during the height of the US-led war on terror. More - Al Jazeera
Global Stability Ratings
Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.
🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Critically Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania is Weak 🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak 🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable 🇦🇴 Angola is Weak 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable 🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak 🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak 🇦🇺 Australia is Weak 🇦🇹 Austria is Stable 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak 🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak 🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable 🇧🇾 Belarus is Weak 🇧🇪 Belgium is Weak 🇧🇿 Belize is Weak 🇧🇯 Benin is Weak 🇧🇹 Bhutan is Stable 🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak 🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable 🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak 🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable 🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable 🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak 🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak 🇨🇲 Cameroon is Unstable 🇨🇦 Canada is Weak 🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Weak 🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable 🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable 🇨🇱 Chile is Stable 🇨🇳 China is Stable 🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak 🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak 🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable 🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable 🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak 🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable 🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable 🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable 🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak 🇩🇲 Dominica is Stable 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak 🇹🇱 East Timor is Stable 🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak 🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak 🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable 🇪🇷 Eritrea is Weak 🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable 🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak 🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Weak 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable 🇫🇯 Fiji is Stable 🇫🇮 Finland is Stable 🇫🇷 France is Weak 🇬🇦 Gabon is Unstable 🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak 🇩🇪 Germany is Weak 🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable 🇬🇷 Greece is Weak 🇬🇩 Grenada is Stable 🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak 🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable 🇬🇾 Guyana is Stable 🇭🇹 Haiti is Unstable 🇭🇳 Honduras is Weak 🇭🇺 Hungary is Stable 🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable 🇮🇳 India is Weak 🇮🇩 Indonesia is Weak 🇮🇷 Iran is Weak 🇮🇶 Iraq is Unstable 🇮🇪 Ireland is Stable 🇮🇱 Israel is Weak 🇮🇹 Italy is Weak 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast is Weak 🇯🇲 Jamaica is Weak 🇯🇵 Japan is Stable 🇯🇴 Jordan is Weak 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan is Stable 🇰🇪 Kenya is Weak 🇰🇮 Kiribati is Weak 🇰🇼 Kuwait is Weak 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan is Stable 🇱🇦 Laos is Weak 🇱🇻 Latvia is Stable 🇱🇧 Lebanon is Unstable 🇱🇸 Lesotho is Weak 🇱🇷 Liberia is Weak 🇱🇾 Libya is Unstable 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein is Stable | 🇱🇹 Lithuania is Stable 🇱🇺 Luxembourg is Stable 🇲🇰 Macedonia is Weak 🇲🇬 Madagascar is Weak 🇲🇼 Malawi is Weak 🇲🇾 Malaysia is Stable 🇲🇻 Maldives is Stable 🇲🇱 Mali is Unstable 🇲🇹 Malta is Stable 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands is Weak 🇲🇷 Mauritania is Weak 🇲🇺 Mauritius is Stable 🇲🇽 Mexico is Weak 🇲🇩 Moldova is Weak 🇲🇨 Monaco is Stable 🇲🇳 Mongolia is Weak 🇲🇪 Montenegro is Weak 🇲🇦 Morocco is Weak 🇲🇿 Mozambique is Weak 🇲🇲 Myanmar is Unstable 🇳🇦 Namibia is Stable 🇳🇷 Nauru is Weak 🇳🇵 Nepal is Weak 🇳🇱 Netherlands is Stable 🇳🇿 New Zealand is Stable 🇳🇮 Nicaragua is Weak 🇳🇪 Niger is Unstable 🇳🇬 Nigeria is Weak 🇰🇵 North Korea is Unstable 🇳🇴 Norway is Stable 🇴🇲 Oman is Stable 🇵🇰 Pakistan is Weak 🇵🇼 Palau is Stable 🇵🇦 Panama is Stable 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea is Weak 🇵🇾 Paraguay is Stable 🇵🇪 Peru is Weak 🇵🇭 Philippines is Weak 🇵🇱 Poland is Weak 🇵🇹 Portugal is Stable 🇶🇦 Qatar is Stable 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo is Weak 🇷🇴 Romania is Stable 🇷🇺 Russia is Unstable 🇷🇼 Rwanda is Weak 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia is Stable 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable 🇼🇸 Samoa is Weak 🇸🇲 San Marino is Stable 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe is Stable 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is Weak 🇸🇳 Senegal is Stable 🇷🇸 Serbia is Unstable 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone is Weak 🇸🇬 Singapore is Stable 🇸🇰 Slovakia is Stable 🇸🇮 Slovenia is Stable 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands is Weak 🇸🇴 Somalia is Unstable 🇿🇦 South Africa is Weak 🇰🇷 South Korea is Stable 🇸🇸 South Sudan is Critically Unstable 🇪🇸 Spain is Weak 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka is Weak 🇸🇩 Sudan is Unstable 🇸🇷 Suriname is Weak 🇸🇪 Sweden is Stable 🇨🇭 Switzerland is Stable 🇸🇾 Syria is Critically Unstable 🇹🇼 Taiwan is Stable 🇹🇯 Tajikistan is Weak 🇹🇿 Tanzania is Stable 🇹🇭 Thailand is Weak 🇧🇸 The Bahamas is Weak 🇬🇲 The Gambia is Weak 🇹🇬 Togo is Weak 🇹🇴 Tonga is Stable 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago is Weak 🇹🇳 Tunisia is Weak 🇹🇷 Turkey is Weak 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan is Weak 🇹🇻 Tuvalu is Weak 🇺🇬 Uganda is Weak 🇺🇦 Ukraine is Unstable 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates is Stable 🇬🇧 United Kingdom is Stable 🇺🇸 United States Of America is Stable 🇺🇾 Uruguay is Stable 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan is Stable 🇻🇺 Vanuatu is Weak 🇻🇪 Venezuela is Unstable 🇻🇳 Vietnam is Stable 🇪🇭 Western Sahara is Weak 🇾🇪 Yemen is Critically Unstable 🇿🇲 Zambia is Weak 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe is Unstable |
Carpe tomorrow!
