Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Good morning,

🗳️ Romania, Portugal, and Poland went to the polls this weekend:

• 🇷🇴 Liberal and pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan won Romania’s presidential race. [More - BBC]

• 🇵🇹 The incumbent right-of-centre Democratic Alliance party won in Portugal’s elections, but failed to secure a majority. [More - BBC]

• 🇵🇱 Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly won Sunday’s vote, but a run-off will be required to determine Poland’s next president [More - BBC]

🔻 US Credit Downgraded

Moody's Ratings downgraded US government credit from Aaa to Aa1, citing ballooning budget deficits expected to reach 9% of GDP by 2035. Markets responded with Treasury yields rising and dollar weakening, as investors worry about debt sustainability amid planned tax cuts and trade policy uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns, calling credit agencies "lagging indicators." More - Bloomberg

🇵🇸 Israel Expands Gaza Offensive

Israel launched "extensive" ground operations across Gaza while announcing it will allow "basic" food aid after a two-month blockade that threatened famine. The military confirmed plans to divide the territory and relocate civilians, as airstrikes killed approximately 100 Palestinians on Sunday. Ceasefire negotiations continue in Qatar despite the escalation, with Hamas seeking permanent war end while Israel demands disarmament. More - Washington Post