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Monday SITREP: Global Ratings
Earthquake hits Afghanistan, Kashmir Floods Kill Dozens, US Trading Partners 'Dazed' After Tariff Ruling, French PM Declares 'Fate of France' at Stake
Andrew Sheves
September 01, 2025 • Time to Enlightenment...8 minutes
Good morning.
Suddenly, it’s September. Happy Labor Day to folks in the USA 🇺🇸 and Happy Independence Day to readers in Uzbekistan 🇺🇿
🇦🇫 Earthquake hits Afghanistan
A significant earthquake hit Afghanistan early Monday morning (local). Details are sparse at the time of writing, but the BBC has a live tracker here.
🇮🇳 Kashmir Floods Kill Dozens
At least 40 people died and scores were injured as torrential rains triggered major landslides and flash floods in Indian-administered Kashmir, with Jammu recording its heaviest-ever 24-hour rainfall of 380mm that devastated communities and knocked out telecommunications. Most victims were Hindu pilgrims visiting the popular Vaishno Devi temple in Katra, while floods swept away bridges on the Tawi river and forced evacuation of over 5,000 people as the region's main land route temporarily shut due to landslides. Environmental experts blamed poor resource management including felling a million trees and construction on floodplains for amplifying threats, with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah criticizing authorities for failing to implement flood mitigation measures since devastating 2014 floods that left residents haunted by memories of apocalyptic destruction. More - Al Jazeera
🚢 US Trading Partners 'Dazed' After Tariff Ruling
A federal appeals court ruled 7-4 that Trump's global tariffs were issued illegally under emergency law, creating chaos for trading partners while leaving the levies intact during appeals. The Federal Circuit upheld a lower court's May ruling that tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were improper, as the law doesn't mention tariffs "or any of its synonyms," affecting trillions in global trade. Veteran trade negotiator Wendy Cutler said partners "must be dazed and confused" as many entered framework deals, with India likely "rejoicing" over its 50% tariff challenge while the EU may question domestic approval efforts and Japan-Korea could "slow walk" negotiations until legal clarity emerges, as Trump warned striking down tariffs would be "a total disaster for the Country." More - Bloomberg
🇫🇷 French PM Declares 'Fate of France' at Stake
French Prime Minister François Bayrou declared the "fate of France" is at stake in the September 8 confidence vote on his austerity budget, which he's expected to lose as opposition parties refuse to back his plan to slash 44 billion euros in spending. Seven out of 10 French people want Bayrou to lose according to polls, while Socialist leader Olivier Faure said his party's decision to vote against is final, telling Bayrou "the only thing I'm waiting for him to do now is to say goodbye." The 74-year-old prime minister accused some forces of wanting "chaos" and hopes to hold negotiations with opposition parties, but his gamble has raised fears of renewed political instability as the far-right National Rally senses opportunity, with deputy leader Sebastien Chenu declaring "stability, it's us" while promising to fight for an absolute majority if new elections are called. More - France 24
Global Stability Ratings
Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.
🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Critically Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania is Weak 🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak 🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable 🇦🇴 Angola is Weak 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable 🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak 🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak 🇦🇺 Australia is Stable 🇦🇹 Austria is Stable 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak 🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak 🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable 🇧🇾 Belarus is Weak 🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable 🇧🇿 Belize is Weak 🇧🇯 Benin is Weak 🇧🇹 Bhutan is Stable 🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina is Weak 🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable 🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak 🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable 🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable 🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak 🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak 🇨🇲 Cameroon is Weak 🇨🇦 Canada is Stable 🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable 🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable 🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable 🇨🇱 Chile is Stable 🇨🇳 China is Stable 🇨🇴 Colombia is Unstable 🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak 🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable 🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable 🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak 🇨🇾 Cyprus is Weak 🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable 🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable 🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak 🇩🇲 Dominica is Stable 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak 🇹🇱 East Timor is Stable 🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak 🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak 🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable 🇪🇷 Eritrea is Weak 🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable 🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak 🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Unstable 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable 🇫🇯 Fiji is Weak 🇫🇮 Finland is Stable 🇫🇷 France is Weak 🇬🇦 Gabon is Unstable 🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak 🇩🇪 Germany is Stable 🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable 🇬🇷 Greece is Weak 🇬🇩 Grenada is Stable 🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak 🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable 🇬🇾 Guyana is Weak 🇭🇹 Haiti is Unstable 🇭🇳 Honduras is Unstable 🇭🇺 Hungary is Stable 🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable 🇮🇳 India is Stable 🇮🇩 Indonesia is Weak 🇮🇷 Iran is Weak 🇮🇶 Iraq is Unstable 🇮🇪 Ireland is Stable 🇮🇱 Israel is Weak 🇮🇹 Italy is Weak 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast is Weak 🇯🇲 Jamaica is Weak 🇯🇵 Japan is Stable 🇯🇴 Jordan is Stable 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan is Weak 🇰🇪 Kenya is Weak 🇰🇮 Kiribati is Weak 🇰🇼 Kuwait is Weak 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan is Weak 🇱🇦 Laos is Weak 🇱🇻 Latvia is Stable 🇱🇧 Lebanon is Unstable 🇱🇸 Lesotho is Weak 🇱🇷 Liberia is Weak 🇱🇾 Libya is Unstable 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein is Stable | 🇱🇹 Lithuania is Stable 🇱🇺 Luxembourg is Stable 🇲🇰 Macedonia is Stable 🇲🇬 Madagascar is Weak 🇲🇼 Malawi is Weak 🇲🇾 Malaysia is Stable 🇲🇻 Maldives is Stable 🇲🇱 Mali is Unstable 🇲🇹 Malta is Stable 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands is Weak 🇲🇷 Mauritania is Weak 🇲🇺 Mauritius is Stable 🇲🇽 Mexico is Weak 🇲🇩 Moldova is Weak 🇲🇨 Monaco is Stable 🇲🇳 Mongolia is Stable 🇲🇪 Montenegro is Weak 🇲🇦 Morocco is Stable 🇲🇿 Mozambique is Weak 🇲🇲 Myanmar is Unstable 🇳🇦 Namibia is Stable 🇳🇷 Nauru is Weak 🇳🇵 Nepal is Weak 🇳🇱 Netherlands is Stable 🇳🇿 New Zealand is Stable 🇳🇮 Nicaragua is Unstable 🇳🇪 Niger is Unstable 🇳🇬 Nigeria is Weak 🇰🇵 North Korea is Unstable 🇳🇴 Norway is Stable 🇴🇲 Oman is Stable 🇵🇰 Pakistan is Weak 🇵🇼 Palau is Stable 🇵🇦 Panama is Stable 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea is Stable 🇵🇾 Paraguay is Weak 🇵🇪 Peru is Weak 🇵🇭 Philippines is Weak 🇵🇱 Poland is Stable 🇵🇹 Portugal is Stable 🇶🇦 Qatar is Stable 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo is Unstable 🇷🇴 Romania is Stable 🇷🇺 Russia is Unstable 🇷🇼 Rwanda is Weak 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia is Weak 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable 🇼🇸 Samoa is Weak 🇸🇲 San Marino is Stable 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe is Stable 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is Stable 🇸🇳 Senegal is Stable 🇷🇸 Serbia is Weak 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone is Weak 🇸🇬 Singapore is Stable 🇸🇰 Slovakia is Stable 🇸🇮 Slovenia is Stable 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands is Stable 🇸🇴 Somalia is Unstable 🇿🇦 South Africa is Weak 🇰🇷 South Korea is Stable 🇸🇸 South Sudan is Critically Unstable 🇪🇸 Spain is Stable 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka is Weak 🇸🇩 Sudan is Unstable 🇸🇷 Suriname is Weak 🇸🇪 Sweden is Weak 🇨🇭 Switzerland is Stable 🇸🇾 Syria is Critically Unstable 🇹🇼 Taiwan is Stable 🇹🇯 Tajikistan is Weak 🇹🇿 Tanzania is Stable 🇹🇭 Thailand is Weak 🇧🇸 The Bahamas is Weak 🇬🇲 The Gambia is Weak 🇹🇬 Togo is Weak 🇹🇴 Tonga is Weak 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago is Weak 🇹🇳 Tunisia is Weak 🇹🇷 Turkey is Weak 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan is Weak 🇹🇻 Tuvalu is Weak 🇺🇬 Uganda is Weak 🇺🇦 Ukraine is Unstable 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates is Stable 🇬🇧 United Kingdom is Weak 🇺🇸 United States Of America is Stable 🇺🇾 Uruguay is Stable 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan is Stable 🇻🇺 Vanuatu is Weak 🇻🇪 Venezuela is Unstable 🇻🇳 Vietnam is Stable 🇪🇭 Western Sahara is Weak 🇾🇪 Yemen is Critically Unstable 🇿🇲 Zambia is Stable 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe is Weak |
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Carpe tomorrow!
