Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit, Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal, Pakistan Floods Kill 337

Good morning.

🇺🇦 Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit

Ukrainian President Zelensky faces an "impossible bind" ahead of Monday's Washington talks with Trump: risk the US president's wrath or accept territorial concessions for vague security guarantees that could enable Russia's return in years to come. After Trump's Alaska summit with Putin bypassed ceasefire demands and embraced "land swaps," Zelensky must navigate memories of February's bitter White House exchange that briefly halted military aid while seeking clarity on security guarantees and trilateral meeting timing. Trump's special envoy suggested the US could offer "Article 5-like language" to Ukraine, but details remain unclear as Zelensky reaffirmed he won't "give up territory or trade land" despite softening Ukrainian public support and mounting casualties from intensified Russian attacks. More - Bloomberg

🇮🇱 Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv's "Hostages Square" and staged a national strike demanding an end to the Gaza war and release of remaining hostages, with organizers warning Netanyahu's plan to occupy Gaza City risks the lives of around 20 captives still held by Hamas. The protests, which closed roads and led to nearly 40 arrests, came after Israel's war cabinet voted to forcibly displace Gaza City's population, creating what Hamas-run authorities called a "catastrophic" situation in the Zeitoun neighborhood. Netanyahu criticized the demonstrations saying they would "harden Hamas's stance," while hostage mother Einav Zangauker declared the government "has transformed a just war into a pointless war" as Israel plans to displace a million people from Gaza City where 90% of the 2.3 million population has already been displaced. More - BBC

🇵🇰 Pakistan Floods Kill 337

Climate change-induced flash floods killed at least 337 people in northwestern Pakistan with dozens missing after torrential rains and cloudbursts triggered massive flooding, particularly devastating the mountainous Buner district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Angry residents accused officials of failing to warn them to evacuate, with no alerts broadcast from mosque loudspeakers despite traditional early warning systems, though the government defended its response saying the sudden downpour was too intense for timely alerts. Pakistan has received 50% more rainfall than last year since monsoon season began in June, with over 600 total deaths, while authorities warn of more deluges through Tuesday as climate change intensifies extreme weather in a country producing less than 1% of global emissions but facing devastating consequences. More - Al Jazeera

Global Stability Ratings

Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.

🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania is Weak

🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak

🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable

🇦🇴 Angola is Weak

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable

🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak

🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak

🇦🇺 Australia is Stable

🇦🇹 Austria is Stable

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak

🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak

🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak

🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable

🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable

🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable

🇧🇿 Belize is Weak

🇧🇯 Benin is Weak

🇧🇹 Bhutan is Weak

🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak

🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak

🇧🇼 Botswana is Weak

🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak

🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable

🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak

🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable

🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak

🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak

🇨🇲 Cameroon is Unstable

🇨🇦 Canada is Stable

🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable

🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable

🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable

🇨🇱 Chile is Stable

🇨🇳 China is Stable

🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak

🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak

🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable

🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable

🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak

🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable

🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable

🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable

🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable

🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak

🇩🇲 Dominica is Stable

🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak

🇹🇱 East Timor is Stable

🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak

🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak

🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak

🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable

🇪🇷 Eritrea is Weak

🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable

🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak

🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Unstable

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable

🇫🇯 Fiji is Weak

🇫🇮 Finland is Stable

🇫🇷 France is Weak

🇬🇦 Gabon is Weak

🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak

🇩🇪 Germany is Stable

🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable

🇬🇷 Greece is Weak

🇬🇩 Grenada is Stable

🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak

🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable

🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable

🇬🇾 Guyana is Weak

🇭🇹 Haiti is Critically Unstable

🇭🇳 Honduras is Unstable

🇭🇺 Hungary is Weak

🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable

🇮🇳 India is Stable

🇮🇩 Indonesia is Weak

🇮🇷 Iran is Weak

🇮🇶 Iraq is Weak

🇮🇪 Ireland is Weak

🇮🇱 Israel is Weak

🇮🇹 Italy is Stable

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast is Weak

🇯🇲 Jamaica is Weak

🇯🇵 Japan is Weak

🇯🇴 Jordan is Weak

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan is Weak

🇰🇪 Kenya is Weak

🇰🇮 Kiribati is Weak

🇰🇼 Kuwait is Stable

🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan is Weak

🇱🇦 Laos is Weak

🇱🇻 Latvia is Stable

🇱🇧 Lebanon is Unstable

🇱🇸 Lesotho is Weak

🇱🇷 Liberia is Weak

🇱🇾 Libya is Unstable

🇱🇮 Liechtenstein is Stable

🇱🇹 Lithuania is Stable

🇱🇺 Luxembourg is Stable

🇲🇰 Macedonia is Weak

🇲🇬 Madagascar is Weak

🇲🇼 Malawi is Weak

🇲🇾 Malaysia is Stable

🇲🇻 Maldives is Stable

🇲🇱 Mali is Unstable

🇲🇹 Malta is Stable

🇲🇭 Marshall Islands is Weak

🇲🇷 Mauritania is Weak

🇲🇺 Mauritius is Stable

🇲🇽 Mexico is Weak

🇲🇩 Moldova is Weak

🇲🇨 Monaco is Stable

🇲🇳 Mongolia is Stable

🇲🇪 Montenegro is Weak

🇲🇦 Morocco is Stable

🇲🇿 Mozambique is Unstable

🇲🇲 Myanmar is Weak

🇳🇦 Namibia is Stable

🇳🇷 Nauru is Weak

🇳🇵 Nepal is Weak

🇳🇱 Netherlands is Stable

🇳🇿 New Zealand is Stable

🇳🇮 Nicaragua is Weak

🇳🇪 Niger is Unstable

🇳🇬 Nigeria is Weak

🇰🇵 North Korea is Unstable

🇳🇴 Norway is Stable

🇴🇲 Oman is Stable

🇵🇰 Pakistan is Weak

🇵🇼 Palau is Stable

🇵🇦 Panama is Stable

🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea is Weak

🇵🇾 Paraguay is Weak

🇵🇪 Peru is Weak

🇵🇭 Philippines is Stable

🇵🇱 Poland is Stable

🇵🇹 Portugal is Stable

🇶🇦 Qatar is Stable

🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo is Unstable

🇷🇴 Romania is Stable

🇷🇺 Russia is Weak

🇷🇼 Rwanda is Stable

🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable

🇱🇨 Saint Lucia is Weak

🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable

🇼🇸 Samoa is Stable

🇸🇲 San Marino is Stable

🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe is Stable

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is Stable

🇸🇳 Senegal is Weak

🇷🇸 Serbia is Weak

🇸🇱 Sierra Leone is Weak

🇸🇬 Singapore is Stable

🇸🇰 Slovakia is Stable

🇸🇮 Slovenia is Stable

🇸🇧 Solomon Islands is Weak

🇸🇴 Somalia is Unstable

🇿🇦 South Africa is Weak

🇰🇷 South Korea is Stable

🇸🇸 South Sudan is Critically Unstable

🇪🇸 Spain is Stable

🇱🇰 Sri Lanka is Weak

🇸🇩 Sudan is Unstable

🇸🇷 Suriname is Weak

🇸🇪 Sweden is Stable

🇨🇭 Switzerland is Stable

🇸🇾 Syria is Critically Unstable

🇹🇼 Taiwan is Stable

🇹🇯 Tajikistan is Weak

🇹🇿 Tanzania is Stable

🇹🇭 Thailand is Weak

🇧🇸 The Bahamas is Stable

🇬🇲 The Gambia is Weak

🇹🇬 Togo is Unstable

🇹🇴 Tonga is Weak

🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago is Weak

🇹🇳 Tunisia is Weak

🇹🇷 Turkey is Weak

🇹🇲 Turkmenistan is Weak

🇹🇻 Tuvalu is Weak

🇺🇬 Uganda is Weak

🇺🇦 Ukraine is Unstable

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates is Stable

🇬🇧 United Kingdom is Stable

🇺🇸 United States Of America is Stable

🇺🇾 Uruguay is Stable

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan is Stable

🇻🇺 Vanuatu is Weak

🇻🇪 Venezuela is Unstable

🇻🇳 Vietnam is Stable

🇪🇭 Western Sahara is Weak

🇾🇪 Yemen is Critically Unstable

🇿🇲 Zambia is Stable

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe is Weak

Carpe tomorrow!