Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Good morning,

Here’s a summary of the latest Decis assessment of Israel’s Operation ‘Rising Lion’ against Iran. The full assessment will be published here at 07:30ET

Overview of the Conflict

The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated dramatically since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 12–13, 2025. The operation began with a surprise Israeli airstrike aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, targeting both military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction on both sides.

Key Developments

• Operation Rising Lion: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the operation as a "deliberate military action aimed at mitigating the Iranian threat to Israel's very existence," emphasizing that Iran had made unprecedented moves to weaponize enriched uranium, posing an immediate threat to Israel.

• Targets and Tactics: Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities (notably Natanz, Fordow, and Piranshahr), ballistic missile bases (Kermanshah, Tabriz), and military leadership, including top IRGC officers and nuclear scientists. Israel also struck Iranian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and fuel depots.

• Iranian Response: Iran retaliated with over 270 ballistic missile launches at Israel since Friday, with 22 missiles breaching Israel’s air defenses and causing significant damage and casualties. Iran has also threatened "unleash hell" and has increased its targeting of Israeli civilian areas.

Damage and Casualty Assessments

Iran

• Civilian and Military Deaths: Iranian health officials report at least 224 people killed, with approximately 90% being civilians, and 1,277 injured since the conflict began.

• Infrastructure Damage:

  • Natanz Nuclear Facility: Multiple above-ground buildings destroyed or damaged, including power supply structures. Underground enrichment halls appear intact.

  • Other Nuclear Sites: Damage reported at Fordow and Piranshahr nuclear facilities, as well as the IRGC’s Ghadir site.

  • Missile Bases: Significant damage at Kermanshah and Tabriz missile bases, with satellite imagery showing widespread burns and destruction.

  • Energy Infrastructure: Strikes on oil refineries and fuel depots, including fires at the Shahran oil depot north of Tehran and a fuel tank south of the city.

  • Government Buildings: Damage reported at the Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, and other government sites.

Israel

• Civilian and Military Deaths: At least 14–18 people killed (reports vary by source), with several children among the dead, and hundreds injured.

• Infrastructure Damage:

  • Residential Areas: Missiles struck multiple cities, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, Petah Tikva, and Bnei Brak. A 10-story building in Bat Yam was reduced to rubble, killing a family of five; other residential buildings were partially collapsed or severely damaged.

  • Haifa Oil Refinery: Damaged by Iranian missile strikes, with fires reported.

  • Airport Closure: Israel’s main international airport and airspace closed for three consecutive days due to ongoing missile threats.

Military and Leadership Losses

• Iran: High-profile casualties include Revolutionary Guard intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi, his deputy, and other top IRGC officers and nuclear scientists.

• Israel: No senior military or political leaders reported killed, but significant civilian casualties and destruction in urban centers.

International Response

• G7 Summit: World leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and U.S. President Donald Trump, are prioritizing the Israel-Iran crisis at the ongoing G7 summit in Canada. Objectives include preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear arms, affirming Israel’s right to self-defense, and seeking diplomatic solutions.

• U.S. Involvement: The U.S. has denied direct involvement in the strikes but has assisted Israel in intercepting Iranian missiles. President Trump has praised Israel’s actions and called for a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program.

Current Status and Outlook

• Ongoing Strikes: Both sides continue to launch attacks, with Israel claiming air superiority over Tehran and Iran threatening further escalation.

• Risk of Regional Conflict: The escalating violence has raised fears of a broader regional war, with global leaders urging restraint and diplomatic solutions.

• Humanitarian Impact: Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage are mounting, with rescue teams struggling to contain fires and recover victims in both countries

Damage Summary Table

🇨🇦 The G7 is Taking Place in Canada

The G7 has a lot to cover and The BBC has a good rundown of what to look out for here