Good morning, and Happy Monday.

Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty

Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains.

Meanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico]

Finally, instead of a measured opening salvo in a series of negotiations, experts describe Trump’s attempt to shock Beijing into a trade deal as having backfired and predict a full-blown trade war. [More - FT]

For speculators, this is a fantastic situation as prices whipsaw in response to each piece of news. But for most businesses — those who are always keen to remind us that they crave stability — this is a nightmare. For them, the only certainty at the moment is more uncertainty.

This makes it hard for businesses to plan but it’s not a stretch to say that planning for the worst-case scenarios — up to and including COVID levels of disruption — is a worthwhile exercise for leadership teams everywhere.

White House Visits to Watch

Jordan’s King Abdullah and India’s Prime Minister Modi are both due to visit the White House this week and there is a possible call between Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. Each meeting may produce headlines, but looking past any fireworks will help identify how issues such as Gaza are likely to progress in the long term.

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Key Metrics

WTI is $73.52 (Down)

Low |--------- < ----------| High

Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

Low |--------- > ----------| High

EuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)

Low |-- < -----------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |---------- < > ---------| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 09 2025 21:16 UTC

Global Stability Ratings

Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.