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- Too Quiet in the Levant, Nigeria's 10-days of Rage and What's Hungary Up To?
Too Quiet in the Levant, Nigeria's 10-days of Rage and What's Hungary Up To?
Plus Changes in Bangladesh.
Andrew Sheves
August 05, 2024 • Time to Enlightenment...12 minutes
Good morning.
A tense weekend in the Levant has given way to an anxious week as everyone waits to see how Iran and Hezbollah respond to recent attacks by Israel. Meanwhile, Hungary’s Victor Orban continues to be Europe’s most troublesome family member, while youths in Nigeria are staging ‘ten days of rage’ to protest economic conditions.
FLASH - Just as we were publishing, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced her resignation and fled the country as protestors stormed the palace after a violent weekend where 90 protesters were killed. Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman has taken temporary control and is meeting with protest leaders and other stakeholders.
But first, the stability matrix.
Reminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer
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Events of interest that we’re monitoring.
🌡️ The Levant
As of Monday morning ET, Iran had not responded to Israel’s assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last week. Nor had Hezbollah retaliated to the simultaneous assassination of Fuad Shukr in Beirut, which Israel claimed was in response to the Hezbollah strike on the Golan Heights on July 27.
In response to these rising tensions, the US has announced additional deployments to the region, including maritime and air defense assets, to provide additional protection to Israel in the event of retaliation. Meanwhile, the US and other countries are advising their citizens to avoid travel to the region and to consider leaving if possible, while many airlines have canceled flights into Beirut and Tel Aviv.
The delays in retaliation could be read as a positive sign that a careful, deliberate response in the works, similar to the heavily choreographed, easily defeated Iranian attack in April. However, it can just as easily be seen as an indication that a major, coordinated offensive is in the works, particularly as Iranian proxies gathered in Tehran on Thursday to plan their response.
Neither Tehran nor the Hezbollah leadership wants to be blamed for starting an all-out war with Israel, and it is unclear how much of a stomach either has for a direct conflict. But what happens next is not up to them: it will be decided by Israel’s leadership.
Netanyahu and his cabinet were already taking an aggressive stance towards Hezbollah and Tehran but will now feel even bolder due to the US deployment of additional assets.
This makes it much more likely that whatever response there is from Iran, Hezbollah, and / or the Houthis, Israel will retaliate with significant force, at which time, there is no clear pathway toward de-escalation.
🇳🇬 Nigeria
Nigeria is rated Unstable and More Turbulent than normal
Nigerians began a campaign of ‘ten days of rage’ on Thursday to protest poor living conditions, high prices and economic hardship. The protests took place across the country, with some occurring peacefully, whereas others were more violent, resulting in looting and police intervention. Amnesty International put the death toll at 13 by Sunday.
Conflict mapping from the Decis.ai app
The organizers seem to have taken inspiration from the recent Kenyan protests, using similar mobilization techniques on social media, and so far, there are many similarities between the two sets of protests. One point of difference is the seeming embrace of Russia as a potential savior, with protestors changing their social media profile pictures to the Russian flag, which is also prevalent at many demonstrations.
This may well be a simple meme, but Russia has expanded its influence in Western Africa significantly in recent years. Russian advisors and Wagner Group mercenaries have replaced expelled French and European peacekeepers in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, all of whom had previously been part of the regional bloc ECOWAS.
Despite the protests and any long-term tensions in the country, Nigeria has a more robust political and social infrastructure and does not rely on foreign peacekeepers or troops, so there’s no chance of Russia running the same playbook here. However, Russia will see the advantage of instability in the region’s dominant economic and military power, and these protests may provide Moscow the opportunity to sow additional dissent.
News summary for Nigeria for the week - July 29 - August 4
This week's critical events in Nigeria were dominated by widespread protests over economic hardship and a deteriorating cost of living crisis. Demonstrations erupted across the country, with citizens expressing frustration over soaring inflation and fuel prices [SOURCE]. The protests turned violent in some areas, with reports of police using tear gas and live ammunition to disperse crowds [SOURCE]. The situation escalated further with rights groups reporting that at least 13 people were killed during the protests, and hundreds were arrested [SOURCE]. In response to the unrest, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu called for an end to the protests and "bloodshed" [SOURCE].
Ongoing issues of note included security challenges, with a bomb attack at a teahouse in Borno state killing 19 people [SOURCE]. This incident underscores the persistent threat of terrorism in parts of the country. On a more positive note, Nigeria set an ambitious target to increase its crude oil production to 2 million barrels daily by 2024, citing improvements in security [SOURCE]. In other developments, Nigeria's women's basketball team made history by becoming the first African team to reach the Olympic quarterfinals in basketball [SOURCE], providing a moment of national pride amidst the country's challenges. These events highlight the complex interplay of economic, security, and social issues facing Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, as it grapples with both domestic challenges and its role on the international stage.
🇭🇺 Hungary
Hungary is rated Stable and More Turbulent than normal
Hungary under Victor Orban has always felt out deliberately of step with the rest of Europe, particularly since assuming the EU’s rotating Presidency in July. Adding to long-term tensions, recent actions by Orban are moving Hungary further away from Europe’s core.
Recent developments in Hungary have heightened tensions between the country and its European Union partners. At the center of the controversy is Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government, which has taken several actions that have alarmed EU leaders and neighboring countries.
The introduction of a simplified visa scheme for Russians and Belarusians in July 2024, allowing easier access to the Schengen Area, has raised significant security concerns among EU members, particularly Baltic states. This move caused the European Union's decision to relocate a key foreign and defense ministers' meeting from Budapest to Brussels in August 2024, protesting Orban's diplomatic activities, including visits to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, and former U.S. President Donald Trump. The EU had to disavow Orban’s diplomatic activities and leaders were particularly alarmed by what was aseen as an attempt to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Adding to the tensions, Hungary's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter of 2024, largely due to decreased demand for electric car batteries, highlighting the country's growing dependence on this industry. Orban further strained relations with Brussels by suggesting he might reconsider Hungary's EU membership if offered a better political and economic deal from the United States.
Criticism of Hungary's close ties with Moscow continues, including concerns over the presence of Russian companies like Rosatom in the country, despite ongoing tensions between Russia and the EU. These events have collectively led to increased scrutiny of Hungary's policies and its relationship with the EU, with some member states even suggesting potential consequences such as restrictions on Hungary's Schengen membership.
Unfortunately, the EU has few tools available to punish or reign in members who misbehave and Orban has proven resistant to previous sanctions and warnings. So it will be difficult to put a stop to Orban’s behavior, particularly as his close relationships with both President Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin mean that Orban has much more to gain from supporting their interests than those of the other EU members. All the while, Hungary is safe in the knowledge that they will still enjoy all the benefits of EU membership, no matter what their leader gets up to.
News summary for Hungary for the week - July 29 - August 4
This week's critical events included Hungary's ambitious plans to create Central and Eastern Europe's first 'mega' airport in Budapest [SOURCE], and the delivery of the country's first domestically built KF41 Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicle [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the continued scrutiny of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's control over the media landscape [SOURCE], and Hungary's role in discussions about oil supplies amidst Ukraine's blockade [SOURCE]. The proposed expansion of Budapest's airport signifies Hungary's ambition to become a major aviation hub in the region, potentially boosting its economic and strategic importance.
Meanwhile, the production of the Lynx IFV marks a significant step in Hungary's efforts to modernize its military and enhance its defense industry. However, the dominant narrative this week centered on the Orbán government's grip on media freedom. Multiple reports highlighted how the extensive control over media outlets allows the administration to shape public opinion and avoid critical scrutiny, raising concerns about the state of democracy in Hungary.
In the realm of international relations, Hungary's position on the Ukraine-Russia conflict came into focus, with the country hinting at possible EU involvement in the blocking of oil supplies through Ukraine. This situation underscores Hungary's complex geopolitical position as it navigates relationships with both the EU and Russia.
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Final Factoid
What’s better than the total number of medals at the Olympics? What about medals per $100bn GDP because Bloomberg….
Carpe tomorrow!
