Good morning - here’s the latest synthesized analysis of the situation in the Middle East. There’s a separate investment memo available - please email me if you would like a copy.

Reminder, this is the initial analysis of a very dynamic situation conducted by AI. See the end of the report for full disclosures.

CURRENT SITUATION

Here is a detailed update on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict over the last 24 hours (June 21–22, 2025), based on the most recent credible sources:

Key Developments

Military Operations and Strikes

• US Joins Israel in Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites:

  • On the night of June 21–22, the United States launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," targeting Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

  • The operation involved B-2 bombers and a submarine firing Tomahawk cruise missiles, using advanced deception tactics to evade Iranian air defenses. Bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, with additional strikes at Natanz and Isfahan.

  • US President Donald Trump claimed the sites were "totally obliterated".

  • No immediate retaliatory response from Iran was reported during the operation.

• Israeli Strikes and Iranian Retaliation:

  • Israel continued its campaign targeting Iranian missile and drone launch sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure. Strikes were reported in Isfahan (centrifuge production facilities), Shiraz, and Khuzestan province (Ahvaz and Mahshahr).

  • Iran responded with large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel, launching two waves of missiles early Sunday morning (June 22). At least 21 people were wounded in Israel, with four in serious condition. Air defenses intercepted most projectiles, but some strikes caused significant damage to buildings, including in Tel Aviv and Haifa.

  • Israel reported the destruction of eight missile launchers in western Iran, including six primed to launch against Israeli territory.

Casualties and Damage

• Iran:

  • Iranian state media reported at least 430 killed and 3,500 injured since the conflict began on June 13. The latest US and Israeli strikes are expected to increase these numbers, though specific figures for the last 24 hours are not yet available.

  • Significant infrastructure damage at nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan) is reported, especially to centrifuge production facilities.

• Israel:

  • At least 24 civilians have been killed and over 21 wounded in the latest missile attacks, with impacts in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beersheba.

  • Israeli air defenses have intercepted more than 450 missiles and around 1,000 drones since the conflict began.

Diplomatic and Security Context

• Negotiations Fail:

  • European foreign ministers met with Iran’s chief diplomat in Geneva, but talks did not yield a diplomatic breakthrough.

  • Iran expressed willingness to engage in further talks only if Israeli aggression stops.

• Nuclear Safety Concerns:

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned against attacks on Iran’s nuclear reactors, especially Bushehr, due to the risk of radioactive release. So far, only uranium enrichment and centrifuge facilities have been targeted.

Effects on Markets and Commodities

• Oil Markets:

  • The conflict has heightened concerns about disruptions to oil supply from the Persian Gulf, one of the world’s most critical energy regions.

  • Attacks on Khuzestan province, a major oil-producing area, and reports of "frightening explosions" in Ahvaz and Mahshahr have raised fears of infrastructure damage and potential supply shocks.

  • Oil prices have surged in response to the escalation, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both rising sharply in early Asian and European trading sessions. Although specific price movements for June 22 are not detailed in the latest reports, previous escalations have led to immediate price spikes of 5–10% in global benchmarks.

  • Market analysts warn of further volatility and potential for supply disruptions if the conflict continues to escalate or if critical oil export facilities are targeted.

Summary Table

Sources

• US Operation Midnight Hammer:

  • CNN provides a detailed timeline and operational details of the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including the use of B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles.

• Israeli Strikes and Iranian Retaliation:

  • Al Jazeera’s key events summary details Israeli strikes on nuclear and military targets in Iran, as well as Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel.

• Casualties and Infrastructure Damage:

  • CBS News reports on the latest Iranian missile attacks on Israel and resulting casualties.

  • Al Jazeera and the Associated Press summarize overall casualties and the context of diplomatic efforts.

• Oil Market Impact:

  • Al Jazeera notes attacks on Khuzestan province, a critical oil-producing region, raising concerns about supply disruptions.

• Regional flights cancelled

  • BA and others have cancelled flights to the Gulf following the US strikes - The Independent

• US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites:

  • CNN live updates: [cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-22-25-intl-hnk]

  • Al Jazeera: [aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/22/us-joins-israel-in-attacks-against-iran-strikes-key-nuclear-sites]

• Israeli and Iranian Military Actions:

  • Al Jazeera key events: [aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/21/israel-iran-conflict-list-of-key-events-june-21-2025]

  • ISW/CTP analysis: [understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-21-2025-morning-edition]

• Casualties and Damage:

  • CBS News: cbsnews.com/news/israel-struck-by-iranian-missiles-over-a-dozen-hurt/

  • Associated Press: [apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-talks-geneva-news-06-21-2025-a7b0cdaba28b5817467ccf712d214579]

This update reflects the most current, credible information available as of June 22, 2025.

Decis Geopolitical Analysis

Intelligence Assessment: US Strikes on Iran and Regional Implications

Key Judgments:

1. Iranian Response (Likely, 70% probability, Moderate Confidence):

• Iran is likely to respond with a combination of direct military retaliation, proxy activation, and asymmetric attacks. They may target US and Israeli assets in the region, including oil infrastructure and shipping lanes.

2. Regional Escalation (Very Likely, 85% probability, High Confidence):

• The conflict may escalate into a broader regional war, involving proxies such as Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis. This could lead to attacks on critical infrastructure and increased instability.

3. De-escalation Pathways (Unlikely, 30% probability, Low Confidence):

• De-escalation is unlikely in the short term due to heightened tensions and the involvement of the US. However, economic pressures and potential regime instability might force Iran to consider negotiations.

4. Domestic Upheaval in Iran (Possible, 50% probability, Moderate Confidence):

• The strikes could exacerbate internal pressures, potentially leading to significant domestic unrest, though the regime's stability is expected to hold in the near term.

Alternative Scenarios:

1. Scenario 1: Limited Retaliation (40% probability):

• Assumptions: Iran's military capabilities are severely degraded.

• Driving Factors: Economic sanctions, internal dissent.

• Implications: Reduced regional conflict risk, potential for negotiations.

• Indicators: No major attacks on US/Israeli targets, decreased proxy activity.

2. Scenario 2: Full-Scale Regional War (30% probability):

• Assumptions: Proxies engage fully, direct military confrontation escalates.

• Driving Factors: Nationalist sentiment, external support.

• Implications: Significant humanitarian crisis, global economic impact.

• Indicators: Multiple fronts engaged, increased casualties.

3. Scenario 3: Accelerated Nuclear Program (30% probability):

• Assumptions: Iran prioritizes nuclear development over immediate retaliation.

• Driving Factors: Regime survival, international pressure.

• Implications: Increased proliferation risks, long-term instability.

• Indicators: Increased enrichment activity, nuclear site expansion.

Uncertainties:

• Information Gaps: Details on Iran's decision-making processes and remaining military capabilities.

• Critical Assumptions: Effectiveness of US/Israeli strikes, regional actors' involvement likelihood.

• New Information: Evidence of regime instability or proxy disengagement could alter assessments.

Implications:

• Stakeholders: US and Israel face increased security threats; Iran faces economic and military strain.

• Opportunities: Diplomatic efforts post-conflict, economic stabilization initiatives.

• Monitorable Factors: Missile launches, proxy activities, negotiation efforts.

Facts vs. Assumptions vs. Judgments:

• Facts: US and Israeli strikes occurred; Iran retaliated with missiles.

• Assumptions: Iran's military capabilities are degraded; regional actors may engage.

• Judgments: Assessments of likelihood based on available intelligence and context.

Information Limitations and Collection Priorities:

• Limitations: Real-time data on Iran's internal situation, proxy group intentions.

• Priorities: Enhance HUMINT on Iranian decision-making; monitor proxy communications.

MonteCarlo Simulation Results

Simulation Results

=== SCENARIO ANALYSIS ===

Analysis Type: Simulation Scenario Type: Strategic

Current Situation: US and Israel have launched strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, with Iran retaliating with missile and drone attacks

=== SIDE A (CHALLENGING) === Position: US and Israel, primary challenging/aggressive parties

1. US: Role: Leading aggressor Hard Power: 85/100 Soft Power: 80/100 Mixed Power: 82/100

2. Israel: Role: Supporting aggressor Hard Power: 70/100 Soft Power: 60/100 Mixed Power: 65/100

=== SIDE B (DEFENDING) === Position: Iran, status quo/defensive party

1. Iran: Role: Defending party Hard Power: 50/100 Soft Power: 40/100 Mixed Power: 45/100

=== SIMULATION THRESHOLDS === Stalemate Threshold: 15 (below this = stalemate) Status Quo Threshold: 40 (below this = no major action)

=== SCENARIO PARAMETERS ===

Time Constraints:

• short-term (7 days)

• long-term (12 months)

Key Variables:

• Iranian response capabilities

• regional escalation dynamics

• US strategic position

• global economic implications

=== POWER TOTALS === Side A - Hard: 155, Soft: 140 Side B - Hard: 50, Soft: 40

=== SIMULATION SUMMARY === Total Runs: 1000 Average Power Gap: 102.6

OUTCOMES: • Side A Wins: 100.0%

WINNERS: • Side A: 100.0%

Most Common Scenario: Mixed Vs Soft (12.5%)

Disclaimers and AI Caveat

This report was generated using artificial intelligence and was based on the best available information as at the time of the last intelligence update and events may have evolved. While we strive to source our information from reliable and accurate sources, and exercise diligence in minimizing errors—whether human or technical—please note that these reports include forward-looking statements. Such statements are speculative by nature and may not materialize as anticipated. As circumstances and risks vary for each individual or entity, we strongly recommend consulting with a qualified professional to address your specific needs and concerns. Decis Intelligence Inc. disclaims any liability for losses, damages, or injuries resulting from the use of these reports. This includes, but is not limited to, direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, and consequential damages, as well as any errors or omissions contained in the reports. © Decis Intelligence Inc. 2025