Good morning.

🇹🇩 Armed fighters, suspected to be members of Boko Haram, stormed Chad’s Presidential palace shortly after a visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister. Government forces thwarted the attack, leaving 18 of the 24 attackers dead, along with one member of the security forces. [More - Al Jazeera]

🇸🇩 On Monday, the US sanctioned the leaders of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, accusing the group of conducting a genocide. Both the RSF and Sudanese militaries have caused indiscriminate harm to civilians during the conflict but until now, the US has refrained from leveling sanctions on the RSF due to the group’s close support to the UAE. [More - Washington Post]

🔥 The Palisades fire and several other uncontrolled wildfires continue to sweep through Los Angeles, with over 130,000 now under evacuation orders and thousands of homes destroyed. LAX remains open, but the fire is now within 8 miles of the airport and spreading, so travelers should expect delays if the fire remains uncontained. The Port of Long Beach is unaffected. [More - BBC Live Coverage]

Unfortunately, this didn't make yesterday’s SITREP, but I’m running a short practical workshop on AI for Security Risk Managers today at 12:30 ET.

The session is going to be very hands-on and we’ll be covering three essential topics:

• 🏆 Three Quick Wins - How to speed up three common Security Risk Management tasks with AI.

• ✍️ Effective prompting - Stop guessing or using generic 'helpful assistant' prompts. Here's how to write consistent, high-performance prompts.

• ⛑️ Safe Use of Public Tools - Finally, we'll quickly cover what's safe and not safe with online AIs and how to anonymize your queries.

If ‘start using AI’ was one of your New Year’s resolutions, this 30-minute free session will set you on the right path.

I hope to see you there.

On to the numbers.

Key Metrics

WTI is $72.44 (Down)

Low |------ < -------------| High

Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

Low |------ < -------------| High

EuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)

Low | < -------------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |---------- < > ---------| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 08 2025 21:16 UTC

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Asia News Summary

Singapore's economy has shown remarkable resilience, with a reported growth of 4.0% in 2024, surpassing expectations despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter. This growth is bolstered by a vibrant tech ecosystem, as Singaporean start-ups seek to expand into the US market, capitalizing on increasing demand for their services [SOURCE - Channel News Asia]. However, challenges persist, including a rise in sham marriages linked to foreigners seeking to extend their stay in the country [SOURCE - Economic Times].

On the diplomatic front, Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong visited Malaysia to strengthen ties, coinciding with the approval of the Johor Special Economic Zone deal aimed at fostering regional growth [SOURCE - The Sun]. This collaboration reflects a broader trend of regional partnerships aimed at enhancing economic stability.

In contrast, China is navigating a complex landscape of economic challenges and international relations. The country is increasing its treasury bond funding in 2025 to stabilize its economy amid ongoing tensions with the US, which has imposed sanctions on 28 Chinese companies [SOURCE - The Zimbabwe Mail]. Additionally, China is actively extracting rare earth minerals in Myanmar, further extending its economic influence in the region [SOURCE - Economic Times].

Vietnam continues to push for robust economic growth, with key sectors thriving despite a record low birth rate that poses future workforce challenges [SOURCE - NDTV]. The country is also addressing trade sector challenges as it seeks exemptions from the EU's IUU 'Yellow Card' assessments, which have been detrimental to its fishing industry [SOURCE - Manila Times].

Meanwhile, India is experiencing a surge in foreign direct investment, which is crucial for its economic growth [SOURCE - The Hindu]. However, tensions with Bangladesh are escalating, particularly regarding the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, which has led to the cancellation of judicial training programs in India [SOURCE - The Times of India].

In the Philippines, the government is ramping up security measures for significant events while also addressing economic challenges. The tourism sector has seen a boost, with revenues reaching ₱760.5 billion in 2024 [SOURCE - Dim Sum Daily]. However, concerns about China's activities in the South China Sea persist, as the Philippines has deployed maritime assets to monitor a suspected Chinese submarine drone [SOURCE - CBS News].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇹🇴 Tonga, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

Oceania News Summary

In Fiji, a troubling incident involving Virgin Australia crew members has raised concerns about safety for travelers in the Pacific. Allegations of assault and robbery underscore the risks faced by those visiting the islands, prompting discussions about security measures for tourists. The Fiji Chamber of Commerce is actively collaborating with police to address crime in tourist hotspots like Nadi, aiming to foster a safer environment for both locals and visitors [SOURCE - Radio New Zealand].

Meanwhile, Australia's economic landscape shows signs of resilience, with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising by 0.6%. This uptick reflects broader trends in the market, as companies like Infratil adjust their forecasts to meet the growing energy demands of data centers, driven by technological advancements and increased digital consumption [SOURCE - Investing.com].

As Australia prepares for a new academic year, significant changes in immigration policy will affect international students. Starting January 2025, prospective students will need to provide enrollment confirmation letters from their Australian institutions as part of the visa application process. This move aims to streamline the immigration process and ensure that students are adequately prepared for their studies [SOURCE - India Today].

In the realm of sports, the Indian cricket team continues to assert its dominance, with Jasprit Bumrah's performance marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing series against Australia. His success on the field reflects the growing competitive spirit between the two nations, further energizing cricket fans across the region [SOURCE - India.com].

Turning to environmental concerns, record temperatures are reshaping Australia's water cycle, heightening the risk of drought. This situation is exacerbated by the increasing energy demands from the industrial sector, as highlighted by Infratil's revised forecasts. The interplay between climate change and economic activity remains a pressing issue for policymakers [SOURCE - SBS News].

In the Marshall Islands, the government has introduced a carbon credit scheme, requiring citizens to contribute annually as part of its climate change mitigation strategy. While this initiative aims to address environmental challenges, critics argue it may impose additional financial burdens on an already struggling population. The nation is also making strides in nuclear disarmament, with recent agreements aimed at supporting affected communities [SOURCE - DW].

As Vanuatu prepares for its upcoming elections, the Electoral Commission has announced 181 registered candidates, signaling a vibrant democratic process. Additionally, the country is benefiting from increased international funding, which is expected to bolster local projects and support recovery efforts following a recent earthquake [SOURCE - RNZ].

I hope to see you at 12:30 - you can sign up here

Carpe tomorrow!