Good morning.

🕊️ Israel and Hamas have finally agreed to ceasefire terms to end the 15-month-long conflict. The deal, due to start Sunday, reportedly takes place in three stages.

Stage One - Six weeks.

• Full ceasefire.

• Hostage exchange: 33 hostages (women, children, elderly, and the sick but no men) held by Hamas will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

• Israeli troops to withdraw from all populated areas in Gaza.

• Displaced Gazans will be allowed to return home.

• Surge in humanitarian aid deliveries.

Negotiations for further stages begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

Stage Two - No timeframe

The second stage is a permanent end to the war and the release of remaining hostages (including men) in exchange for another 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (excluding those convicted of murder in the West Bank). Israeli troops would withdraw fully from Gaza.

Stage Three - No Timeframe

The third stage is the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the bodies of any remaining hostages.

Full details of the plan should be released soon. The ceasefire is due to begin on Sunday but fighting will likely continue until the last minute. [More - BBC]

Key Metrics

WTI is $74.31 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 15 2025 21:16 UTC

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇨🇳 China, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, the stock market is facing uncertainty, with experts warning that its recent win streak may come to an end due to global economic concerns and shifting investor sentiment [SOURCE - RTT News]. Meanwhile, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim have signed an agreement to establish the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, which is expected to yield significant economic benefits and job creation for both nations [SOURCE - Free Press Journal].

Despite these advancements, Singapore is grappling with a surge in malware scams, resulting in losses of S$625,000 since December 2024, prompting calls for stronger intervention in the region's online scam industry [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In Vietnam, the Tet bonus season has seen record payouts, reflecting a robust economic environment, although concerns about governance and corruption persist [SOURCE - e.vnexpress]. The upcoming visit of Russia's Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin underscores Vietnam's growing importance in global trade [SOURCE - TASS].

India is also making strides on the diplomatic front, with significant engagements in Afghanistan and invitations extended to Pakistan and Bangladesh for a celebration of 'Undivided India' [SOURCE - NDTV]. Additionally, India's economic growth is bolstered by a record renewable energy capacity addition and a commitment from Microsoft to maintain its workforce in the country despite global layoffs [SOURCE - Business Line].

In contrast, China's economic growth is stymied by rising inflation, which reached 0.1% in December 2024, raising concerns about meeting economic targets [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. The US has intensified efforts to limit China's access to rare earths, further complicating the economic landscape [SOURCE - Investing.com].

Meanwhile, Malaysia is strengthening regional ties, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasizing the importance of cooperation in Southeast Asia. The extension of visa-free entry for Indians until 2026 aims to enhance cultural and economic connections [SOURCE - The Hindu].

In the Philippines, the government is ramping up surveillance in the West Philippine Sea amid China's assertive presence, while also preparing for upcoming elections by scrutinizing candidates for foreign influence [SOURCE - Manila Times].

As tensions rise in South Korea with President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial set to begin, the political landscape remains volatile, raising concerns about civil unrest [SOURCE - Christian Science Monitor].

In Myanmar, the military's adoption of drone tactics from anti-junta forces highlights the escalating violence in the region, with recent airstrikes resulting in significant civilian casualties [SOURCE - Manila Times].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇹🇴 Tonga, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu

Regional News Summary

Australia's retail sector is facing challenges as November sales showed a smaller-than-expected increase, attributed to a limited boost from Black Friday. This raises concerns for businesses that rely heavily on holiday sales. Additionally, consumer sentiment has dipped to a new low in January, reflecting a growing lack of confidence among Australians [SOURCE - INVESTING.COM].

In a significant human rights development, Australia has accepted responsibility for refugees and detainees from Nauru, following a ruling by the UN Human Rights Committee. This decision marks a crucial step in addressing longstanding issues related to asylum seekers and refugees [SOURCE - RNZ.CO.NZ].

As the world grapples with climate change, 2024 has been declared the hottest year on record, underscoring the urgency of the global crisis. Australia, facing its own climate challenges, is reminded of the pressing need for action [SOURCE - THE CONVERSATION].

In the cultural sphere, the Telugu-language film Pushpa 2 has made a significant impact at the Australian box office, indicating that despite economic concerns, audiences are still engaging with cinema [SOURCE - KOIMOI].

Turning to New Zealand, public sentiment regarding the Interislander ferry system indicates a strong desire for rail-enabled ferries, reflecting concerns about transportation infrastructure [SOURCE - RNZ]. Meanwhile, the property market has reached record lows, raising alarms among local economists [SOURCE - RNZ].

Fiji is actively working to enhance its economic resilience against climate change, aiming for a 100% renewable energy target by 2030. The government is investing in green infrastructure to protect communities from rising sea levels, showcasing its commitment to climate finance [SOURCE - IIED].

In the Maldives, a surprise visit from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has drawn international attention, highlighting the strategic importance of the island nation amid ongoing challenges related to climate change and economic development [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior].

The Pacific Islands Forum continues to be a platform for regional cooperation, with Fiji playing a pivotal role in promoting trade and economic development among member states, despite facing challenges from diverging priorities and external influences [SOURCE - Asia Pacific Forum].

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Carpe tomorrow!