Good morning.

🚨 Breaking - Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off

An Air India jet headed from Ahmedabad to London crashed shortly after takeoff. Via the BBC “Air India has set up a dedicated passenger hotline number. Families in India seeking more information can call 1800 5691 444” Live Tracker - BBC

🇮🇷 IAEA Censures Iran, US Draws Down Regional Presence

The UN nuclear watchdog's board voted 19-3 to declare Iran non-compliant with nuclear safeguards, the first such censure in nearly 20 years. Iran immediately vowed to build a new enrichment facility and upgrade centrifuges at Fordow, while warning it could exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty if sanctions follow. The resolution comes days before US-Iran nuclear talks resume Sunday in Oman amid escalating regional tensions. More - Al Jazeera

Meanwhile, as rumors circulate of a strike on Iran if talks collapse, The US ordered partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy staff amid rising tensions. Iran has threatened to strike American assets if attacked over its nuclear program. The move follows reports that Israel is ready to launch operations against Iran and comes ahead of the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday in Oman. Oil prices initially jumped on the news before reversing gains, while the UK Navy warned shipping of potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. More - Bloomberg

Note - the first place I saw the US drawdown reported was by Charles Lister on X early Wednesday morning so it’s worth adding his account to your watchlist if you have interests in the region.

🇬🇧 Anti-Immigrant Riots in Northern Ireland

Two nights of riots erupted in Ballymena, Northern Ireland, after two 14-year-old boys were charged with sexual assault and required a Romanian interpreter in court, sparking speculation about their nationality. Over 32 officers were injured as masked rioters attacked immigrant neighborhoods with bricks, petrol bombs, and arson, forcing families to flee or hide in attics. Police deployed water cannons and arrested five people while warning of potential continued violence. More - Washington Post

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, the High Court has rejected WazirX's debt restructuring plan following a substantial cyber heist that resulted in a loss of $235 million. This incident underscores the growing concerns surrounding cybersecurity in the financial sector. Additionally, the Singapore-based Chinese firm CCIC is facing liquidation after a series of layoffs, reflecting the challenges many companies are experiencing in the current economic climate. Meanwhile, Premium Catering (Holdings) Limited has announced its financial results for the six-month period ending December 31, 2024, indicating ongoing business activity despite the turbulent environment [SOURCE - Economic Times].

Trade dynamics are also evolving, with H World Group, a Singapore-registered company, signing an agreement to introduce several hotel brands in Laos, enhancing regional tourism and investment opportunities [SOURCE - Manila Times]. In a related move, Trip.com has expanded its presence in Southeast Asia through strategic partnerships in Vietnam and Singapore, indicating a robust recovery in the travel sector post-pandemic [SOURCE - Manila Times].

On the geopolitical front, tensions are escalating in the South China Sea, where China has accused the European Union of meddling in its disputes with the Philippines. This comes amid reports of a Chinese ship running aground near a Philippines-occupied island, further complicating the already fraught relations in the region [SOURCE - The Manila Times].

In India, the government is poised to attract significant investments during the upcoming India Energy Storage Week 2025, showcasing its growing prominence in the renewable energy sector [SOURCE - Economic Times]. Additionally, the country is experiencing a revival in consumption, which is expected to drive stock market growth to record highs [SOURCE - The Hindu BusinessLine]. However, India’s relations with Pakistan remain strained, particularly over water flow disputes, highlighting the ongoing challenges in regional diplomacy [SOURCE - Daily Times].

In the Philippines, the government is grappling with rising unemployment rates, which have climbed to 4.1% as of April. This economic strain is compounded by calls from the Department of Health for a national emergency declaration regarding the HIV/AIDS crisis, reflecting the urgent need for public health interventions [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. Furthermore, the introduction of a visa-free travel policy for Indian nationals is expected to boost tourism, with Grab PH launching an electric taxi service to cater to this influx [SOURCE - News18].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇵🇼 Palau, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇹🇴 Tonga

Regional News Summary

Australia is currently grappling with the implications of new US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which have taken effect today. These tariffs are expected to significantly impact the Australian economy, particularly in sectors reliant on these materials [SOURCE - SBS]. Concurrently, the fast fashion industry is experiencing accelerated growth, driven by these tariffs, raising concerns about environmental sustainability [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In the realm of international relations, Australia is strengthening its ties with Indonesia, motivated by regional anxieties regarding China. This strategic partnership is seen as essential for addressing shared security concerns [SOURCE - Times of India]. Meanwhile, China has been showcasing its coast guard capabilities to Pacific nations, a move interpreted as preparation for potential high seas patrols, further complicating the geopolitical landscape in the region [SOURCE - Bangkok Post].

Domestically, Virgin Australia is set to return to the share market, a development that could herald significant changes for the airline industry [SOURCE - The Conversation]. In a notable labor movement, Queensland nurses and midwives have voted to strike for the first time in decades, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with their working conditions [SOURCE - World Socialist Web Site].

On the defense front, a Japanese Mogami-class frigate has docked in Darwin as part of a push for a $10 billion Australian defense contract, underscoring the growing military cooperation between Australia and Japan [SOURCE - ABC]. This follows Japan's recent showcase of its Maritime Self-Defense Force frigate in Australia, further emphasizing the strategic partnership [SOURCE - Kyodo News].

In the agricultural sector, drought conditions are severely affecting farmers' mental health across southern Australia, highlighting the urgent need for support in this area [SOURCE - ABC]. Additionally, blueberry prices have surged due to low seasonal supply and flood damage, impacting consumers and producers alike [SOURCE - ABC].

In New Zealand, the government has announced a new "Parent Boost" visa aimed at reuniting families, though concerns remain about accessibility for many migrant communities [SOURCE - Economic Times]. The government is also investing $13.5 million to attract 72,000 more visitors to the country, a move intended to bolster the tourism sector [SOURCE - RNZ].

In the Pacific, Tuvalu is facing an existential threat from rising sea levels, prompting the government to propose the construction of floating islands to accommodate its population [SOURCE - CNN]. Regional support from Australia and New Zealand has been pledged to assist Tuvalu in its climate change adaptation efforts [SOURCE - ABC News].

Finally, the Marshall Islands continue to grapple with the legacy of nuclear testing, with a recent report highlighting a troubling lack of health research on the effects of radiation exposure on the local population [SOURCE - RNZ]. This underscores the ongoing challenges faced by Pacific nations in addressing historical injustices while navigating contemporary issues.

Carpe tomorrow!