🇺🇸 Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs

President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil over its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, calling the coup attempt case a "witch hunt" in the most extreme example yet of weaponizing trade policy for unrelated demands. Brazil's President Lula fired back saying his nation won't be "tutored" and threatened reciprocal measures, while the real plummeted 2.9% against the dollar. Trump also announced 30% tariffs on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, plus floated 50% duties on copper products and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals if companies don't shift production to the US within a year. More - Bloomberg

🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks Start in UAE

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are holding peace talks in Abu Dhabi, four months after finalizing a draft deal to end nearly four decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The talks follow Azerbaijan's September 2023 recapture of the territory, prompting an exodus of almost all 100,000 ethnic Armenians who fled to Armenia. Key obstacles remain including Azerbaijan's demand for Armenia to change its constitution and provide a transport corridor to connect Azerbaijan proper with its Nakhchivan enclave, while ceasefire violations along their 1,000km border have complicated negotiations. More - Al Jazeera

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, Barclays has restructured its Asia-Pacific investment banking leadership, indicating a transformative phase in the financial sector. Concurrently, UOB, FMM, and SMF have formed a partnership aimed at enhancing cross-border manufacturing projects, which is expected to invigorate the country's manufacturing industry [SOURCE - Livemint]. Additionally, a new TCS innovation center has been established to facilitate AI transformation for 60 Singapore SMEs and start-ups, further promoting technological advancement in the region [SOURCE - The Hindu BusinessLine].

However, the property market is facing challenges as the Singaporean government has introduced new stamp duties to curb speculation, aiming to stabilize the housing market [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. In the banking sector, UBS and Citi have been fined by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for their involvement in a money laundering scandal linked to Chinese nationals, highlighting ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the financial industry [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

Regional tensions are also escalating, particularly concerning China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, which has raised alarms among Quad nations. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar emphasized the significance of this issue for the grouping [SOURCE - Deccan Chronicle]. Meanwhile, India's support for the Dalai Lama's succession has further complicated its relations with China, as it contradicts Beijing's claims on the matter [SOURCE - AsiaOne].

In the realm of trade, Vietnam has agreed to a minimum 20% tariff while the US will enjoy duty-free imports under a new trade deal, a move that has sparked concerns in China about being targeted through this agreement [SOURCE - TIMES OF INDIA]. This shift is indicative of changing dynamics in the global supply chain, with China's share of US imports falling to 7% as Vietnam rises in prominence [SOURCE - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE].

In Afghanistan, the humanitarian crisis continues to deepen, with over 1.4 million people returning to the country amid worsening conditions. The UN has condemned the systematic oppression of women under the Taliban regime, prompting international calls for action [SOURCE - Jurist]. Security concerns are also rising, with Pakistan warning of an escalating terror threat from Afghanistan [SOURCE - Dawn].

In the Philippines, the government is making strides in healthcare by forging a deal to install 300 dialysis machines nationwide, aiming to enhance medical services [SOURCE - Manila Times]. However, the country is also grappling with crime, as 15 police officers have been detained in connection with alleged killings cockfighting fans [SOURCE - VnExpress].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇹🇴 Tonga

Regional News Summary

Australia's economy is showing signs of resilience, with Austral Resources acquiring the Rocklands Copper Mine near Cloncurry, underscoring ongoing investments in the mining sector. Additionally, household spending rebounded in May, reflecting a positive trend in consumer behavior. However, the trade landscape has become more challenging, as the United States has imposed a 10% import tax on Australian goods following unsuccessful negotiations with President Trump. This has sparked calls for the removal of "nuisance" levies that are exacerbating the impact of US tariffs on Australian trade [SOURCE - ABC].

In the realm of defense, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a review of Australia's military agreement with the US, emphasizing the need for greater autonomy in defense strategy amidst concerns about the partnership's stability [SOURCE - Washington Post].

Meanwhile, Australia's cricket team is focused on a series sweep against the West Indies, with the return of star player Steve Smith to the lineup [SOURCE - Times of India].

In a concerning development, Australia has condemned an arson attack on a synagogue in Melbourne, with Prime Minister Albanese pledging to combat rising hate crimes. This incident has prompted the formation of an anti-hate task force as anti-Jewish incidents continue to escalate [SOURCE - BBC].

Turning to the Pacific, Fiji is grappling with a surge in HIV cases, largely driven by drug use, which highlights the challenges facing its healthcare system. The situation is compounded by the adverse effects of global trade tensions and declining aid, creating a perfect storm for the nation [SOURCE - Scoop].

In the Federated States of Micronesia, the government is ambitiously aiming for a transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050, a significant step in addressing climate change challenges. This initiative is part of broader efforts to diversify the economy and enhance resilience against natural disasters [SOURCE - Pacific News Center].

Palau is also making headlines with its innovative conservation efforts, becoming the first nation to ban harmful sunscreens to protect its coral reefs. Additionally, it has launched a mandatory eco-passport for visitors, promoting sustainable tourism practices [SOURCE - BBC News].

As the Pacific islands navigate these complex challenges, the international community's support remains crucial. Countries like Australia are stepping up to provide climate-resilience funding to vulnerable nations, including Tuvalu, which is facing an existential threat from rising sea levels [SOURCE - ABC News].

Carpe tomorrow!